Market outlook
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Asset class roundup, beginning with an economic case study in Canada
If Canada is a window into emerging economies, which are more opaque than their more mature counterparts, then the developing world is in better shape than the consensus would have us believe.
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Brexit could be a game changer for the United Kingdom and Europe
The consequences of the U.K.’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union are likely to be far reaching, from a flight to quality in financial markets to the heightened risk of a U.K. recession.
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Brexit's immediate implications foreshadow longer-term consequences
Brexit won’t be an unmitigated disaster for the United Kingdom, but it will certainly be negative. The impact on the rest of the EU, and therefore the global economy, may well be even bigger.
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Brexit: if you're not at the table, you're on the menu
The EU is by no means perfect. While membership poses some significant challenges for the United Kingdom, its best and most likely bet is to try to reform from within.
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Weak jobs data could keep the Fed on hold until December
The surprising weakness in May's jobs report combined with the political uncertainty of the presidential election is likely to keep interest rates on hold until December.
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Credit for the next phase of the business cycle
When a variety of economic, political, and market factors give conflicting signals, it’s important to examine the business cycle’s deeper fundamentals—and their implications for investors.
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There will be no easy answers for the Fed at its June meeting
Weak GDP in the United States and global concerns should keep the Fed on hold at its next meeting. But don’t underestimate central bankers’ desire to normalize monetary policy.
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New spin for a new cycle
Investors love a good narrative, a story spinning together economic and financial market trends into a cohesive whole. After more than eight years of growth beating value, the narrative is changing.
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Negative yields, helicopter money-what will central banks try next?
One policy that could be employed is helicopter money—a kind of permanent quantitative easing that can take many forms, including tax rebates or electronic transfers into bank accounts.
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Monetary policy doves make a surprise appearance
The U.S. Federal Reserve softened its expectations for interest rates in its most recent release. That's good news for investors, but suggests the global risks to the U.S. economy are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon.
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