Weekly Market Recap
Week ended September 6
Market-moving news
Slippery slope
U.S. stock indexes posted some of the steepest weekly declines in more than a year, with the NASDAQ down nearly 6% as of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 falling more than 4%, and the Dow declining almost 3%. Technology stocks were hit particularly hard amid fresh concerns about the short-term profit potential from artificial intelligence.
Mixed jobs data
Ahead of a mid-September U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, the government reported on Friday that the economy added 142,000 jobs in August. While that figure was above the previous month’s gain, it was less than the consensus expectations for around 160,000. In addition, initial estimates for June and July were revised downward by a combined 86,000 jobs.
Yields slide
Yields of U.S. government bonds fell sharply amid expectations of an interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its two-day meeting that concludes on September 18. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ended the week at 3.72%—the lowest since June 2023 and down from 3.92% at the end of the previous week.
Oil slick
The price of U.S. crude oil fell nearly 8% for the week to the lowest level in about 14 months, with the commodity trading for around $68 per barrel on Friday afternoon. Concerns about sagging demand in the United States and China weighed on the price, which had been above $80 as recently as mid-July.
Volatility surge
As stocks fell, an index that tracks investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. market volatility jumped about 49% for the week. Although the Cboe Volatility Index rose on Friday to a closing level of around 22, that reading was still well below a recent peak of nearly 39 reached on August 5 during a surge in volatility that subsided after a few days.
Small-cap rout
The week’s volatility was especially pronounced for U.S. small-cap stocks, which lagged their large-cap peers by a wide margin. The Russell 2000 Index, a small-cap benchmark, fell nearly 6%, sinking to the lowest level since August 14.
Inside Q2 earnings
Utilities posted the strongest earnings growth at the sector level in the recently completed earnings season with a 21% increase relative to the previous year’s second quarter, according to FactSet. Across all S&P 500 sectors, earnings grew by an average of 11.3%—the strongest result since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Price check ahead
A Consumer Price Index report set to be released on Wednesday will provide one of the last data points for the U.S. Federal Reserve as it considers cutting its key interest rate by either 25 or 50 basis points at a meeting ending September 18. The most recent CPI report released in August showed an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, the first reading below 3.0% since early 2021.
The week ahead: September 9-13
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 9/6/24 (%)
1 week
| -3.1 | -4.3 | -5.4 | Large | |
| -3.4 | -3.7 | -4.7 | Medium | |
| -5.2 | -5.7 | -6.2 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 11.6 | 13.6 | 14.6 | Large | |
| 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.1 | Medium | |
| 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.8 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 9/6/24 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 40,345.4 | -2.9 | 8.5 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 16,690.8 | -5.8 | 11.7 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,408.4 | -4.2 | 14.5 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,383.0 | -2.8 | 9.2 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 22.4 | 49.3 | 79.2 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -2.8 | 9.2 |
| Europe | -3.1 | 9.4 |
| France | -3.1 | 1.6 |
| Germany | -2.4 | 10.8 |
| Italy | -2.4 | 17.6 |
| Japan | -2.7 | 10.1 |
| Spain | -1.7 | 13.6 |
| Switzerland | -3.4 | 9.0 |
| U.K. | -2.1 | 12.8 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -2.2 | 7.4 |
| Brazil | -1.1 | -12.9 |
| China | -2.4 | 2.1 |
| India | -1.5 | 21.3 |
| Indonesia | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| Korea | -5.0 | -6.9 |
| Mexico | -3.2 | -21.9 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -3.2 | 24.5 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -4.2 | 14.5 |
| Communication services | -5.0 | 16.9 |
| Consumer discretionary | -2.8 | 3.4 |
| Consumer staples | 0.6 | 18.4 |
| Energy | -5.6 | 5.1 |
| Financials | -3.2 | 18.7 |
| Healthcare | -2.1 | 13.8 |
| Industrials | -4.3 | 11.3 |
| Information tech | -7.1 | 18.2 |
| Materials | -4.7 | 6.0 |
| Real estate | 0.2 | 11.4 |
| Utilities | -0.5 | 21.9 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 9/6/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.3 | 0.9 | 3.1 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.4 | Medium | |
| 6.5 | 6.6 | 5.7 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 9/6/24 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.66 | 4.25 | -59 |
| 10 Yr | 3.72 | 3.88 | -16 |
| 30 Yr | 4.02 | 4.03 | -1 |
| 2-10 spread | 6 | -37 | 43 |
| 10-30 spread | 31 | 16 | 15 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| Bank loans | 0.1 | 5.4 |
| Convertible | -1.9 | 3.2 |
| Corporate | 1.2 | 5.5 |
| High yield | 0.2 | 6.6 |
| MBS | 1.3 | 4.6 |
| Municipal | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Preferreds | 1.1 | 6.2 |
| TIPS | 0.6 | 3.9 |
| Treasury | 1.4 | 4.0 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| EMD USD | 0.4 | 7.1 |
| Global Agg | 1.2 | 3.1 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Multiverse | 1.2 | 3.3 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -2.4 | -1.4 |
| Oil (WTI) | -7.7 | 2.8 |
| Gold | 0.0 | 20.4 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -0.1 | 2.0 |
| AUD | -1.1 | -1.6 |
| CAD | -0.4 | -2.6 |
| CHF | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| EUR | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| GBP | 0.3 | 3.4 |
| JPY | 2.3 | -0.9 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
| Eurozone | 0.6 | 2.2 | 6.4 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.7 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 2.14 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.0 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 2.17 | AAA |
| Japan | -0.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.85 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.90 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 7/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| U.S. Equity | 31.6 | 92.9 | 15,048.7 |
| Sector Equity | 6.3 | -35.4 | 1,386.5 |
| Allocation | -8.5 | -92.7 | 1,396.0 |
| International Equity | -9.3 | -10.4 | 4,199.6 |
| Alternative | 6.1 | 31.7 | 267.0 |
| Commodities | 2.7 | -8.8 | 174.4 |
| Taxable Bond | 51.3 | 336.0 | 5,524.6 |
| Municipal Bond | 6.6 | 8.3 | 893.8 |
| Total all long-term funds | 90.4 | 301.8 | 29,134.9 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Blend | 28.3 | 194.2 | 7,771.7 |
| Small Blend | 9.5 | 21.7 | 620.4 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 9.4 | 115.3 | 1,387.7 |
| High Yield Bond | 7.6 | 24.1 | 353.0 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 5.7 | 50.8 | 1,630.5 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Growth | -6.8 | -34.6 | 2,907.8 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -5.8 | -22.9 | 526.1 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.6 | -32.7 | 775.5 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -3.0 | -27.9 | 369.4 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -2.7 | -22.8 | 347.8 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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