Weekly Market Recap

Week ended November 15

Market-moving news

Market-moving news

Market-moving news
6 in a row

Stocks extended their recent climb as the S&P 500 recorded its sixth positive week in a row—the longest such streak in two years. The major indexes rose around 1%, setting new record highs, with the Dow breaching the 28,000-point mark on Friday.

Market-moving news
Inflation momentum

Market-based measures of inflation expectations have picked up as concerns about prospects of a near-term recession have eased. Early in the week, the gap between yields of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities of similar maturity recorded its largest 6-day gain in 3 years.  

Market-moving news
Trade deal elusive

Efforts to finalize a so-called phase one U.S.-China trade deal hit a snag over disagreements on issues including the extent of China’s commitment to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The sides continued efforts to resolve details of a tentative accord announced on October 11. 

Market-moving news
Fed outlook

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism in congressional testimony that recent interest-rate cuts could bolster the economy to weather risks such as trade tensions and the slowdown in global growth. Powell said Fed officials believe that current monetary policies will remain appropriate so long as the U.S. economy grows moderately and the labor market remains strong.  

Market-moving news
Going nowhere

Tuesday marked a rare instance in which the stock market was so directionless that the Dow finished unchanged for the day, extending out several decimal points. The 30-stock index finished at 27,691.4854488934—exactly where it finished Monday. It was the third unchanged day since 2000.

Market-moving news
Hong Kong impact

The recent escalation in protests in the streets of Hong Kong weighed on Asian markets. A Hong Kong-based stock index tumbled 4.8% during the week, while a Chinese benchmark fell 2.5%. 

Market-moving news
Retail rebounds

With holiday shopping season getting under way, U.S. consumer spending has recovered from a recent soft patch. Retail sales in October rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3%, marking a turnaround from September, when sales fell by an equal amount. 

Market-moving news
Sector stories

With more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter results as of Friday, six sectors had posted overall earnings gains while five posted declines, according to FactSet. The top performers have been the utilities and healthcare sectors; the biggest laggards have been energy, materials, and information technology.

The week ahead: November 18-22

Monday 

  • Housing Market Index, National Association of Home Builders

 

Tuesday

  • Housing starts, U.S. Census Bureau

Wednesday

  • Release of minutes from October 29–30 meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board

Thursday

  • Existing home sales, National Association of Realtors; The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. 

Friday

  • University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment 

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS).  One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

 

Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns (%) as of 11/15/19
1 week
0.41.01.6 Large
0.31.02.1 Mid
-0.7-0.10.5 Small
Value Core Growth
YTD
22.826.730.7 Large
23.026.531.5 Mid
17.619.821.9 Small
Value Core Growth
Index/market total returns as of 11/15/19 (%)
Close Week YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average 28,004.9 1.2 22.6
NASDAQ Composite Index 8,540.8 0.8 29.9
S&P 500 Index 3,120.5 0.9 26.7
MSCI EAFE Index 1,976.7 0.1 18.8
Cboe Volatility Index 12.1 0.0 -52.4
International/developed (%)
1 week YTD
EAFE 0.1 18.8
Europe 0.4 19.8
France 1.0 24.1
Germany 0.3 19.4
Italy 0.3 27.6
Japan -0.1 18.2
Spain -1.6 7.3
Switzerland 0.8 27.1
U.K. 0.2 14.1
Emerging markets (%)
1 week YTD
EM -1.5 11.5
Brazil -2.2 12.4
China -3.3 12.9
India -1.2 4.2
Indonesia -1.0 4.3
Korea 0.7 8.0
Mexico -1.1 9.5
Russia -1.8 43.5
Taiwan -0.7 28.8
S&P 500 sectors (%)
1 week YTD
S&P 500 Index 0.9 26.7
Communication services 1.3 29.7
Consumer discretionary -0.2 23.2
Consumer staples 0.9 23.6
Energy -1.0 7.6
Financials -0.3 27.1
Healthcare 2.5 14.3
Industrials 0.7 30.0
Information tech 1.3 42.4
Materials 0.3 21.6
Real estate 2.1 27.1
Utilities 1.8 21.8

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns (%) as of 11/15/19
1 week
0.10.31.9 High
0.20.31.2 Med QUALITY
0.0-0.1-0.1 Low
Ltd Int Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY
YTD
3.05.115.8 High
3.46.323.0 Med QUALITY
6.611.919.5 Low
Ltd Int Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/15/19 (%)
END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr 1.61 2.21 -59
10 Yr 1.84 2.39 -56
30 Yr 2.31 2.82 -51
2-10 spread 0.22 0.18 +4
10-30 spread 0.48 0.43 +5
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
1 week YTD
Aggregate 0.5 8.3
Bank loans 0.1 7.0
Convertible 0.1 17.7
Corporate 0.6 14.3
High yield -0.1 11.9
MBS 0.3 6.0
Municipal 0.3 6.6
Preferreds 0.5 15.8
TIPS 0.2 7.5
Treasury 0.6 6.9
Global bond total returns (%)
1 week YTD
EM Local -0.6 8.2
EMD USD 0.1 12.9
Global Agg 0.5 6.1
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 0.5 4.8
Multiverse 0.5 6.3
Commodities (%)
1 week YTD
BBG Com Ind -1.0 5.1
Oil (WTI) 1.0 26.8
Gold 0.4 14.1
Currencies (USD) (%)
1 week YTD
EM FX -1.2 1.9
AUD -0.7 -3.2
CAD 0.0 3.3
CHF 0.8 -0.4
EUR 0.3 -3.3
GBP 0.9 1.3
JPY 0.4 0.9

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs ($B) as of 10/31/19

as tracked by Strategic Insight
MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
U.S. equity -12.3 -38.5 8,602.1
Sector equity -2.3 -59.3 901.7
Allocation -3.5 -60.5 1,275.3
International equity -3.3 -17.3 3,203.5
Alternative 0.5 -19.9 180.6
Commodities 0.2 11.0 108.6
Taxable bond 41.5 276.7 4,261.0
Municipal bond 8.4 81.0 835.6
Total all long-term funds 25.9 139.4 19,381.5

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Intermediate Core Bond 15.0 87.3 950.3
Intermediate Core-Plus Bond 6.0 40.0 700.9
Large Value 5.3 -15.2 1,188.8
Ultrashort Bond 5.3 53.4 262.2
Short-Term Bond 4.7 34.1 434.7

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Large Growth -9.4 -69.7 1,762.6
Bank Loan -3.7 -53.4 96.6
Mid-Cap Growth -2.7 -12.2 349.8
World Large Stock -2.4 -17.3 406.4
Health -2.0 -15.5 164.4

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS).  One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

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