Weekly Market Recap
Week ended September 12
Market-moving news
Record heights
Modest gains on Tuesday and a bigger rally on Thursday sent each of the three major U.S. stock indexes to successive record highs. For the S&P 500, it was the fifth positive week out of the past six. Since the start of August, the index has risen nearly 4%.
Creeping inflation
Thursday’s Consumer Price Index reading showed that U.S. inflation rose at a 2.9% annual rate in August, up from 2.7% the previous month. The month-to-month increase of 0.4% was slightly higher than economists’ consensus expectations, and core inflation excluding food and energy costs climbed to a 3.1% annual rate.
Fed cut ahead?
Bond market trading continued to support expectations of an interest rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to end on Wednesday, September 17. As of Friday’s market close, prices in rate futures markets implied a 96.4% probability that the Fed would cut by a quarter point, with a 3.6% prospect of a half-point cut, according to CME FedWatch. For more details on the outlook, explore the latest thinking from our co-chief investment strategists here.
Labor market cracks
Tuesday’s annual revision by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics concluded that the U.S. economy generated 911,000 fewer jobs from March 2024 to March 2025 than initial estimates reflected. A separate report showed that 263,000 workers submitted unemployment benefit claims in the latest weekly tally—the highest level in nearly four years.
Yield decline
The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell for the fourth week in a row, and on Thursday it briefly sank below the 4.00% threshold for the first time in more than five months. On Friday, the 10-year yield closed around 4.06%, down sharply from a recent high of 4.49% in mid-July.
Waning confidence
U.S. consumer sentiment slipped to the lowest level in four months, based on Friday’s preliminary monthly report from a University of Michigan survey. The decrease from a late August index reading of 58.2 to September’s preliminary figure of 55.4 marked the second monthly decline in a row and followed recent data showing weakening jobs growth.
Gold rush
The price of gold futures climbed for the fourth consecutive week and set another new record high, briefly reaching $3,706 per ounce on Tuesday morning. Over the past four weeks, gold has risen more than 10%. On Friday afternoon, it was trading around $3,681 per ounce.
Small caps lag
A U.S. small-cap stock index lagged its large-cap counterpart by a wide margin, reversing the result from the previous week. The small-cap benchmark, the Russell 2000 Index, finished the latest week up 0.3% versus a 1.5% gain for its large-cap peer.
The week ahead: September 15-19
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 9/12/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | Large | |
| 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | Medium | |
| -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 10.6 | 12.9 | 15.0 | Large | |
| 8.8 | 10.2 | 14.2 | Medium | |
| 7.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 9/12/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 45,834.2 | 1.0 | 9.1 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 22,141.1 | 2.0 | 15.2 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,584.3 | 1.6 | 13.0 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,759.0 | 1.2 | 25.0 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 14.8 | -2.6 | -14.9 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 1.2 | 25.0 |
| Europe | 0.9 | 27.1 |
| France | 1.8 | 23.7 |
| Germany | 0.0 | 32.6 |
| Italy | 2.1 | 47.1 |
| Japan | 1.5 | 20.7 |
| Spain | 3.0 | 59.5 |
| Switzerland | -1.0 | 23.9 |
| U.K. | 1.1 | 26.5 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 4.0 | 26.1 |
| Brazil | 1.2 | 35.9 |
| China | 4.4 | 37.5 |
| India | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Indonesia | 0.4 | -3.1 |
| Korea | 7.4 | 54.3 |
| Mexico | 3.4 | 44.1 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 6.5 | 25.3 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.6 | 13.0 |
| Communication services | 0.9 | 25.0 |
| Consumer discretionary | 1.3 | 5.1 |
| Consumer staples | -0.2 | 5.8 |
| Energy | 1.6 | 5.4 |
| Financials | 1.3 | 12.2 |
| Healthcare | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Industrials | 0.4 | 15.8 |
| Information tech | 3.1 | 17.8 |
| Materials | 0.0 | 11.4 |
| Real estate | 0.5 | 4.5 |
| Utilities | 2.4 | 14.6 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 9/12/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.3 | 4.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 3.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 4.0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | Medium | |
| 6.0 | 6.9 | 13.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 9/12/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.56 | 4.23 | -67 |
| 10 Yr | 4.06 | 4.57 | -51 |
| 30 Yr | 4.68 | 4.79 | -11 |
| 2-10 spread | 50 | 34 | 16 |
| 10-30 spread | 61 | 22 | 40 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.4 | 6.4 |
| Bank loans | 0.2 | 4.6 |
| Convertible | 2.1 | 15.1 |
| Corporate | 0.5 | 8.6 |
| High yield | 0.3 | 6.9 |
| MBS | 0.6 | 7.1 |
| Municipal | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Preferreds | 1.1 | 7.6 |
| TIPS | 0.2 | 7.3 |
| Treasury | 0.3 | 5.6 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.8 | 18.4 |
| EMD USD | 0.8 | 10.6 |
| Global Agg | 0.2 | 8.0 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.1 | 9.1 |
| Multiverse | 0.2 | 8.2 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 1.4 | 8.3 |
| Oil (WTI) | 1.6 | -2.5 |
| Gold | 1.0 | 37.5 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 1.3 | 7.3 |
| CAD | -0.1 | 3.8 |
| CHF | 0.1 | 13.8 |
| EUR | -0.1 | 13.2 |
| GBP | 0.3 | 8.3 |
| JPY | -0.4 | 6.4 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.5 | 2.1 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.2 | -0.4 | 5.2 | 1.82 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.2 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 2.71 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.60 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.2 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.68 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 7/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -61.4 | 35.9 | 16,759.6 |
| Sector Equity | 6.8 | -29.8 | 1,498.7 |
| Allocation | -3.9 | -69.5 | 1,477.7 |
| International Equity | 11.0 | 6.7 | 4,754.3 |
| Alternative | 12.9 | 59.9 | 293.9 |
| Commodities | 2.1 | 25.6 | 248.7 |
| Taxable Bond | 54.9 | 445.2 | 6,105.1 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.7 | 49.0 | 934.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | 31.2 | 557.0 | 32,514.4 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 19.6 | 100.9 | 1,520.6 |
| Digital Assets | 11.4 | 49.8 | 190.8 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 7.9 | 104.1 | 465.0 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 7.5 | 67.8 | 1,943.3 |
| Large Blend | 7.3 | 226.7 | 8,897.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Cap Blend | -37.5 | -26.6 | 702.6 |
| Small Blend | -9.2 | -17.6 | 603.3 |
| Large Growth | -8.6 | -51.1 | 3,411.5 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5.0 | 4.5 | 119.5 |
| Large Value | -4.3 | -10.6 | 1,952.3 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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