Weekly Market Recap
Week ended January 2
Market-moving news
Uneven transition
As 2025 drew to a close, the S&P 500 and the Dow slipped from the record highs that both indexes had reached the previous week. They regained some ground on Friday’s opening trading day of 2026 but finished with weekly declines of around 1%.
Triple play
The S&P 500’s 17.9% total return for 2025 marked the third year in a row that the index generated a double-digit gain. However, the latest result fell short of 2024’s 25.0% return and 2023’s 26.3% figure, which were the strongest back-to-back annual results since 1997/1998.
Mag 7 scorecard
The technology-oriented mega-cap stocks known as the Magnificent Seven extended their dominance of the U.S. market. Those seven names contributed 42% of the S&P 500’s total return in 2025 and 55% over the latest three-year period, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Moreover, the Magnificent Seven’s share of the index’s overall market capitalization rose to 34.9% at the end of 2025 from 33.5% at the close of 2024.
The year in bonds
A U.S. bond market benchmark generated a return of 7.3% in 2025, a year that saw notable shifts in the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached as high as 4.80% in January before briefly slipping below 4.00% in October; it finished 2025 at 4.17%, down from 4.57% at the end of 2024.
Sector stories
For the third year in a row, communication services and information technology were the top-performing sectors in the S&P 500, as they generated total returns of 33.6% and 24.0% in 2025, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. All 11 sectors delivered positive performance; while real estate was the weakest sector, it nevertheless generated a 3.2% return.
Earnings outlook
As major U.S. banks prepare to open quarterly earnings season in mid-January, analysts expect that fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 rose by an average of 8.3%, according to a recent survey from FactSet. At the sector level, information technology and materials are expected to generate the strongest fourth-quarter earnings gains.
As January goes …
Historically, January’s stock market performance has been a strong indicator of what may be in store for the rest of the year. In fact, about 72% of the time since 1929, the S&P 500 has posted a positive return for the year after gaining ground in January or has gone on to post an annual loss when the market has declined in the first month, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s also been the case each of the past four years.
Jobs ahead
Labor market data due out on Friday will show whether recent weakness extended into December. The recent government shutdown delayed the previous report, which showed that unemployment rose in November to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. The economy generated 64,000 jobs after a decline of 105,000 the previous month. Jobs growth has been negative for three of the past six months.
The week ahead: January 5-9
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 1/2/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.1 | -1.0 | -1.8 | Large | |
| -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | Medium | |
| -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 0.9 | 0.3 | -0.3 | Large | |
| 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | Medium | |
| 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 1/2/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 48,382.4 | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 23,235.6 | -1.5 | 0.0 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,858.5 | -1.0 | 0.2 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,910.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 14.5 | 6.6 | -3.2 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Europe | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| France | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Italy | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Japan | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| Spain | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Switzerland | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Brazil | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| China | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| India | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Indonesia | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| Korea | 6.4 | 3.3 |
| Mexico | -2.0 | 0.4 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 3.7 | 1.8 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.0 | 0.2 |
| Communication services | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | -3.2 | -1.1 |
| Consumer staples | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Energy | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Financials | -1.2 | 0.3 |
| Healthcare | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| Industrials | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Information tech | -1.5 | 0.1 |
| Materials | -0.3 | 1.6 |
| Real estate | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Utilities | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 1/2/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.5 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 1/2/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.48 | 3.48 | 0 |
| 10 Yr | 4.19 | 4.16 | 3 |
| 30 Yr | 4.87 | 4.84 | 3 |
| 2-10 spread | 71 | 68 | 3 |
| 10-30 spread | 68 | 68 | 0 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Bank loans | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Convertible | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Corporate | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| High yield | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| MBS | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Preferreds | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| TIPS | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Treasury | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| EMD USD | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Global Agg | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Multiverse | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -2.6 | -0.1 |
| Oil (WTI) | 1.1 | -0.2 |
| Gold | -4.8 | -0.2 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| CAD | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| CHF | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| EUR | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| GBP | -0.1 | 0.4 |
| JPY | -0.1 | 0.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.4 | 2.1 | 6.4 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.8 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 1.86 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.3 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.90 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.07 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.54 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 11/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 13.0 | -8.7 | 17,983.4 |
| Sector Equity | -2.5 | -4.8 | 1,670.4 |
| Allocation | -4.2 | -63.0 | 1,552.8 |
| International Equity | 17.8 | 35.9 | 5,218.8 |
| Alternative | 1.0 | 13.8 | 125.5 |
| Commodities | 2.1 | 44.8 | 335.0 |
| Taxable Bond | 50.2 | 508.2 | 6,502.9 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.5 | 53.3 | 1,001.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 86.7 | 648.1 | 35,032.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 11/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 30.3 | 199.5 | 9,440.9 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 11.6 | 103.2 | 469.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 11.3 | 80.3 | 2,164.0 |
| Multisector Bond | 8.8 | 72.8 | 433.4 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 5.7 | -10.7 | 135.6 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 11/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -10.1 | -58.3 | 3,624.2 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -3.8 | -34.1 | 377.4 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3.7 | -45.1 | 502.1 |
| Digital Assets | -3.5 | 45.6 | 152.2 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.0 | -38.1 | 845.4 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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