Weekly Market Recap

Week ended November 15

Market-moving news

6 in a row

Stocks extended their recent climb as the S&P 500 recorded its sixth positive week in a row—the longest such streak in two years. The major indexes rose around 1%, setting new record highs, with the Dow breaching the 28,000-point mark on Friday.

Inflation momentum

Market-based measures of inflation expectations have picked up as concerns about prospects of a near-term recession have eased. Early in the week, the gap between yields of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities of similar maturity recorded its largest 6-day gain in 3 years.

Trade deal elusive

Efforts to finalize a so-called phase one U.S.-China trade deal hit a snag over disagreements on issues including the extent of China’s commitment to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The sides continued efforts to resolve details of a tentative accord announced on October 11.

Fed outlook

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism in congressional testimony that recent interest-rate cuts could bolster the economy to weather risks such as trade tensions and the slowdown in global growth. Powell said Fed officials believe that current monetary policies will remain appropriate so long as the U.S. economy grows moderately and the labor market remains strong.

Going nowhere

Tuesday marked a rare instance in which the stock market was so directionless that the Dow finished unchanged for the day, extending out several decimal points. The 30-stock index finished at 27,691.4854488934—exactly where it finished Monday. It was the third unchanged day since 2000.

Hong Kong impact

The recent escalation in protests in the streets of Hong Kong weighed on Asian markets. A Hong Kong-based stock index tumbled 4.8% during the week, while a Chinese benchmark fell 2.5%.

Retail rebounds

With holiday shopping season getting under way, U.S. consumer spending has recovered from a recent soft patch. Retail sales in October rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3%, marking a turnaround from September, when sales fell by an equal amount.

Sector stories

With more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter results as of Friday, six sectors had posted overall earnings gains while five posted declines, according to FactSet. The top performers have been the utilities and healthcare sectors; the biggest laggards have been energy, materials, and information technology.

The week ahead: November 18-22

Monday

Housing Market Index, National Association of Home Builders

Tuesday

Housing starts, U.S. Census Bureau

Wednesday

Release of minutes from October 29–30 meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board

Thursday

Existing home sales, National Association of Realtors; The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S.

Friday

University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns (%) as of 11/15/19

1 week YTD

1 week
0.4	1.0	1.6	Large
0.3	1.0	2.1	Mid
-0.7	-0.1	0.5	Small
Value	Core	Growth

YTD
22.8	26.7	30.7	Large
23.0	26.5	31.5	Mid
17.6	19.8	21.9	Small
Value	Core	Growth

Index/market total returns as of 11/15/19 (%)

Close Week YTD

	Close	Week	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	28,004.9	1.2	22.6
NASDAQ Composite Index	8,540.8	0.8	29.9
S&P 500 Index	3,120.5	0.9	26.7
MSCI EAFE Index	1,976.7	0.1	18.8
Cboe Volatility Index	12.1	0.0	-52.4

International/developed (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EAFE	0.1	18.8
Europe	0.4	19.8
France	1.0	24.1
Germany	0.3	19.4
Italy	0.3	27.6
Japan	-0.1	18.2
Spain	-1.6	7.3
Switzerland	0.8	27.1
U.K.	0.2	14.1

Emerging markets (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM	-1.5	11.5
Brazil	-2.2	12.4
China	-3.3	12.9
India	-1.2	4.2
Indonesia	-1.0	4.3
Korea	0.7	8.0
Mexico	-1.1	9.5
Russia	-1.8	43.5
Taiwan	-0.7	28.8

S&P 500 sectors (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
S&P 500 Index	0.9	26.7
Communication services	1.3	29.7
Consumer discretionary	-0.2	23.2
Consumer staples	0.9	23.6
Energy	-1.0	7.6
Financials	-0.3	27.1
Healthcare	2.5	14.3
Industrials	0.7	30.0
Information tech	1.3	42.4
Materials	0.3	21.6
Real estate	2.1	27.1
Utilities	1.8	21.8

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns (%) as of 11/15/19

1 week YTD

1 week
0.1	0.3	1.9	High
0.2	0.3	1.2	Med	QUALITY
0.0	-0.1	-0.1	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

YTD
3.0	5.1	15.8	High
3.4	6.3	23.0	Med	QUALITY
6.6	11.9	19.5	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/15/19 (%)

END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)

	END OF WEEK	PRIOR YEAR END	YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr	1.61	2.21	-59
10 Yr	1.84	2.39	-56
30 Yr	2.31	2.82	-51
2-10 spread	0.22	0.18	+4
10-30 spread	0.48	0.43	+5

U.S. bond sector total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
Aggregate	0.5	8.3
Bank loans	0.1	7.0
Convertible	0.1	17.7
Corporate	0.6	14.3
High yield	-0.1	11.9
MBS	0.3	6.0
Municipal	0.3	6.6
Preferreds	0.5	15.8
TIPS	0.2	7.5
Treasury	0.6	6.9

Global bond total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM Local	-0.6	8.2
EMD USD	0.1	12.9
Global Agg	0.5	6.1
Global Agg Ex-U.S.	0.5	4.8
Multiverse	0.5	6.3

Commodities (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
BBG Com Ind	-1.0	5.1
Oil (WTI)	1.0	26.8
Gold	0.4	14.1

Currencies (USD) (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM FX	-1.2	1.9
AUD	-0.7	-3.2
CAD	0.0	3.3
CHF	0.8	-0.4
EUR	0.3	-3.3
GBP	0.9	1.3
JPY	0.4	0.9

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

	GDP Growth (%) annualized	Inflation Rate (%) CPI	Unemployment Rate (%)	10-Year Government Bond (%)	Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	1.2	0.7	7.5	_	_
China	6.0	3.8	3.6	3.26	A+
Germany	0.5	1.1	3.1	-0.33	AAA
Japan	1.3	0.2	2.4	-0.07	A+
U.K.	1.0	1.5	3.8	0.73	AA

GDP Growth (%) annualized
Eurozone	1.2
China	6.0
Germany	0.5
Japan	1.3
U.K.	1.0

Inflation Rate (%) CPI
Eurozone	0.7
China	3.8
Germany	1.1
Japan	0.2
U.K.	1.5

Unemployment Rate (%)
Eurozone	7.5
China	3.6
Germany	3.1
Japan	2.4
U.K.	3.8

10-Year Government Bond (%)
Eurozone	_
China	3.26
Germany	-0.33
Japan	-0.07
U.K.	0.73

Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	_
China	A+
Germany	AAA
Japan	A+
U.K.	AA

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs ($B) as of 10/31/19

as tracked by Strategic Insight

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
U.S. equity	-12.3	-38.5	8,602.1
Sector equity	-2.3	-59.3	901.7
Allocation	-3.5	-60.5	1,275.3
International equity	-3.3	-17.3	3,203.5
Alternative	0.5	-19.9	180.6
Commodities	0.2	11.0	108.6
Taxable bond	41.5	276.7	4,261.0
Municipal bond	8.4	81.0	835.6
Total all long-term funds	25.9	139.4	19,381.5

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Intermediate Core Bond	15.0	87.3	950.3
Intermediate Core-Plus Bond	6.0	40.0	700.9
Large Value	5.3	-15.2	1,188.8
Ultrashort Bond	5.3	53.4	262.2
Short-Term Bond	4.7	34.1	434.7

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Large Growth	-9.4	-69.7	1,762.6
Bank Loan	-3.7	-53.4	96.6
Mid-Cap Growth	-2.7	-12.2	349.8
World Large Stock	-2.4	-17.3	406.4
Health	-2.0	-15.5	164.4

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

Capital Market Performance Report

Detailed weekly data on equities and fixed income—factors, fundamentals, styles/sizes, sectors/industries/stocks

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