Weekly Market Recap
Week ended August 1
Market-moving news

Negative turn
A sell-off on Friday capped a rough week that sent major U.S. stock indexes to weekly declines of around 2% to 3%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ retreated from record highs in a week packed with news about tariffs, jobs, GDP, earnings, and U.S. Federal Reserve policy.

Jobs miss
Stock prices and bond yields dropped on Friday after an employment report fell short of expectations and showed that previous months’ jobs growth was much slower than had been initially estimated. The economy generated 73,000 new jobs in July and initial estimates for the previous two months’ gains were revised downward by a combined 258,000. As a result, totals for April and May were just 19,000 and 14,000, respectively.

Tariff deadline
The Trump administration’s Friday deadline to reach tariff agreements produced a surge of announcements. Trading partners such as the European Union and South Korea were among those that reached full or partial deals to limit previously announced tariff increases. Canada, India, and Brazil remained at odds with U.S. negotiators and talks continued with other major partners such as China and Mexico.

Fed holds steady
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve held off on cutting interest rates for its fifth consecutive policy meeting, although two Fed members dissented by voting for an immediate cut of a quarter percentage point. Stocks slipped following the meeting after Chair Jerome Powell said that a potential rate cut at the Fed’s mid-September meeting was far from guaranteed.

GDP reversal
U.S. GDP expanded at a 3.0% annual rate in this year’s second quarter, marking a positive turnaround after GDP slightly contracted in the previous quarter. Both quarters’ figures were skewed by rising tariffs; the latest quarter’s GDP was boosted by a decline in imports as U.S. businesses cut back on foreign-made goods after previously rushing to stock up on those products ahead of higher tariffs.

July by the numbers
U.S. stock indexes climbed for the third month in a row as the S&P 500 added 2.2% and racked up 10 record closing highs. Information technology was the top-performing sector for the third consecutive month; over that stretch, tech stocks gained nearly 28% on a cumulative basis.

Earnings upgrade
More than two-thirds of the way through earnings season, the latest batch of reports prompted analysts to lift their overall expectations again. As of Friday, second-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies were expected to rise an average of 10.3%, based on reports already released and forecasts for companies that haven’t yet reported, according to FactSet. Entering earnings season, the projected earnings growth rate was around 5.0%.

Volatility perks up
A gauge that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility surged nearly 22% for the day following Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report. The Cboe Volatility Index climbed to its highest level in a month and a half and surged nearly 37% for the week.
The week ahead: August 4-8
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 8/1/25 (%)
1 week
-3.1 | -2.4 | -1.7 | Large | |
-3.3 | -3.0 | -2.2 | Medium | |
-5.2 | -4.2 | -3.2 | Small | |
Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
5.2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | Large | |
3.6 | 5.3 | 10.2 | Medium | |
-3.5 | -2.1 | -0.7 | Small | |
Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 8/1/25 (%)
Close | 1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|---|
Dow Jones Industrial Average | 43,588.6 | -2.9 | 3.4 |
NASDAQ Composite Index | 20,650.1 | -2.2 | 7.3 |
S&P 500 Index | 6,238.0 | -2.3 | 6.9 |
MSCI EAFE Index | 2,606.4 | -3.1 | 17.8 |
Cboe Volatility Index | 20.4 | 36.9 | 17.2 |
International/developed (%)
1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|
EAFE | -3.1 | 17.8 |
Europe | -4.1 | 20.4 |
France | -5.1 | 17.6 |
Germany | -4.5 | 30.6 |
Italy | -3.5 | 35.9 |
Japan | -0.8 | 12.2 |
Spain | -2.1 | 44.0 |
Switzerland | -2.4 | 18.7 |
U.K. | -1.8 | 19.8 |
Emerging markets (%)
1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|
EM | -2.5 | 16.3 |
Brazil | -1.3 | 20.7 |
China | -3.4 | 21.8 |
India | -2.5 | 0.3 |
Indonesia | -1.3 | -3.7 |
Korea | -3.6 | 38.0 |
Mexico | -2.8 | 29.4 |
Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
Taiwan | -1.8 | 15.0 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|
S&P 500 Index | -2.3 | 6.9 |
Communication services | 0.0 | 12.0 |
Consumer discretionary | -4.5 | -4.9 |
Consumer staples | -1.1 | 4.5 |
Energy | -1.5 | 1.9 |
Financials | -3.7 | 7.3 |
Healthcare | -3.9 | -3.8 |
Industrials | -3.3 | 14.4 |
Information tech | -1.4 | 11.3 |
Materials | -5.4 | 4.8 |
Real estate | -4.0 | 1.7 |
Utilities | 1.6 | 15.0 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 8/1/25 (%)
1 week
0.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | High | Credit quality |
0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | Medium | |
0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | Low | |
Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
Interest-rate sensitivity |
YTD
2.7 | 4.5 | 3.5 | High | Credit quality |
3.3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | Medium | |
4.7 | 4.8 | 5.5 | Low | |
Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
Interest-rate sensitivity |
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 8/1/25 (%)
END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
---|---|---|---|
2 Yr | 3.68 | 4.23 | -55 |
10 Yr | 4.21 | 4.57 | -36 |
30 Yr | 4.81 | 4.79 | 2 |
2-10 spread | 53 | 34 | 19 |
10-30 spread | 60 | 22 | 38 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|
Aggregate | 1.0 | 4.6 |
Bank loans | 0.0 | 3.6 |
Convertible | -1.6 | 8.5 |
Corporate | 0.9 | 6.3 |
High yield | -0.2 | 4.8 |
MBS | 1.0 | 4.7 |
Municipal | 0.8 | -0.2 |
Preferreds | 0.9 | 2.2 |
TIPS | 0.6 | 5.4 |
Treasury | 1.0 | 4.3 |
Global bond total returns (%)
1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|
EM Local | -0.8 | 14.4 |
EMD USD | 0.5 | 7.1 |
Global Agg | 0.0 | 6.4 |
Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.6 | 7.6 |
Multiverse | 0.0 | 6.5 |
Commodities (%)
1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|
BBG Com Ind | -2.7 | 4.5 |
Oil (WTI) | 3.4 | 2.5 |
Gold | 0.3 | 26.2 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
1 week | YTD | |
---|---|---|
EM FX | 0.0 | 8.7 |
AUD | -1.5 | 4.4 |
CAD | -0.6 | 4.3 |
CHF | -1.2 | 12.4 |
EUR | -1.5 | 11.6 |
GBP | -1.3 | 5.9 |
JPY | -0.2 | 6.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eurozone | 1.4 | 2.0 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
China | 5.2 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 1.71 | A+ |
Germany | 0.4 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 2.67 | AAA |
Japan | 1.7 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.55 | A+ |
U.K. | 1.3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 4.53 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 6/30/25 ($B)
MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
---|---|---|---|
U.S. Equity | -37.0 | 128.3 | 16,732.0 |
Sector Equity | 3.1 | -30.3 | 1,471.2 |
Allocation | -5.3 | -74.4 | 1,476.1 |
International Equity | 11.3 | -17.3 | 4,781.9 |
Alternative | 7.5 | 51.7 | 260.1 |
Commodities | 6.2 | 26.2 | 245.3 |
Taxable Bond | 51.1 | 442.0 | 6,062.7 |
Municipal Bond | 5.7 | 49.5 | 930.6 |
Total all long-term funds | 42.8 | 615.0 | 32,390.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/25 ($B)
MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
---|---|---|---|
Intermediate Core Bond | 20.1 | 90.3 | 1,506.0 |
Foreign Large Blend | 8.8 | 65.4 | 1,964.2 |
High Yield Bond | 7.1 | 28.8 | 385.5 |
Digital Assets | 5.8 | 42.7 | 158.6 |
Commodities Focused | 5.7 | 25.9 | 200.2 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/25 ($B)
MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
---|---|---|---|
Large Growth | -12.0 | -49.9 | 3,319.2 |
Large Value | -6.3 | -4.5 | 1,949.2 |
Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5.5 | 13.7 | 118.9 |
Small Blend | -4.2 | 1.7 | 603.4 |
Mid-Cap Growth | -3.7 | -30.8 | 376.6 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

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