Weekly Market Recap

Week ended November 20

Market-moving news

Uneven path

It was another choppy week for stocks, with big daily moves early in the week but little change overall. The S&P 500 and the Dow were slightly negative, the NASDAQ was modestly positive, and none of the major indexes moved more than 1% for the week.

Support to end

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday said he would not extend most of the emergency lending programs that his agency has been running in tandem with the U.S. Federal Reserve amid the coronavirus pandemic. The decision to curb the programs at the end of December comes as the economy faces new challenges from the latest spike in COVID-19 cases.

Small-cap surge

For the second week in a row, U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market by a wide margin, as the Russell 2000 Index, a small-cap benchmark, climbed more than 2%. At Friday’s close, the index was up 23% from a recent low on September 23.

Leadership reversal

After underperforming the other major stock indexes by a wide margin the previous week, the NASDAQ outpaced its peers. That’s in keeping with the trend through most of 2020, as the NASDAQ has frequently outperformed the Dow and the S&P 500 owing to strong results from technology stocks that have a relatively large weighting in the NASDAQ.

Earnings wrap

Figures from the just-completed quarterly earnings season show that profits at S&P 500 companies fell an average 6.6% compared with the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet. That’s the fourth-largest quarterly decline since 2009. Healthcare posted the strongest earnings growth at the sector level, rising 13.0%.

Bitcoin's surge

The price of the cryptocurrency bitcoin extended its recent rally, rising about 14% for the week. The price has risen nearly 160% year to date; since early October, it’s up around 75%.

Shopping sentiment

.The latest U.S. retail sales numbers entering the holiday shopping season were mixed. Sales inched up just 0.3% in October relative to September, marking a slowdown in the positive momentum from recent months. Electronics and home improvement supplies were among the areas that showed big sales gains; clothing and department store sales were down.

Midweek data feast

Wednesday will yield a bumper crop of economic reports in a holiday-shortened week. Releases are scheduled on everything from quarterly GDP to U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes, weekly unemployment claims, and more. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, and markets will close early for the day on Friday.

The week ahead: November 23-27

Monday

No major reports scheduled

Tuesday

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board

Wednesday

Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor
Tthird-quarter GDP, second estimate, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Release of minutes from the November 4–5 meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
Durable goods orders, U.S. Census Bureau
Personal income and consumer spending, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
New home sales, U.S. Census Bureau

Thursday

Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. financial markets closed

Friday

No major reports scheduled
Black Friday shopping
Early 1 P.M., ET, close for U.S. stock exchanges

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 11/20/20 (%)

1 week YTD

1 week
0.1	-0.2	-0.5	Large
0.9	1.2	1.6	Mid
2.7	2.4	2.1	Small
Value	Core	Growth

YTD
-2.6	13.7	29.2	Large
-0.9	9.7	25.2	Mid
-4.4	8.3	20.1	Small
Value	Core	Growth

Index/market total returns as of 11/20/20 (%)

Close Week YTD

	Close	Week	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	29,263.5	-0.7	4.7
NASDAQ Composite Index	11,855.0	0.2	33.2
S&P 500 Index	3,557.5	-0.7	12.0
MSCI EAFE Index	2,035.3	1.9	2.5
Cboe Volatility Index	23.7	2.6	71.7

International/developed (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EAFE	1.9	2.5
Europe	1.4	0.2
France	2.3	0.5
Germany	1.0	3.7
Italy	3.8	-3.8
Japan	2.3	8.6
Spain	2.7	-9.3
Switzerland	0.0	7.1
U.K.	1.5	-14.4

Emerging markets (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM	1.8	10.9
Brazil	4.0	-30.3
China	0.8	28.4
India	0.8	4.4
Indonesia	1.8	-11.6
Korea	2.4	21.1
Mexico	4.7	-7.6
Russia	2.8	-20.8
Taiwan	4.0	29.5

S&P 500 sectors (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
S&P 500 Index	-0.7	12.0
Communication services	-0.9	17.6
Consumer discretionary	-0.1	27.1
Consumer staples	-1.4	8.1
Energy	5.6	-38.1
Financials	0.6	-9.9
Healthcare	-3.0	8.2
Industrials	1.1	8.1
Information tech	-0.9	32.4
Materials	1.1	15.6
Real estate	-1.6	-2.5
Utilities	-3.9	0.9

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 11/20/20 (%)

1 week YTD

1 week
0.0	0.1	1.9	High
0.1	0.2	2.5	Med	QUALITY
0.5	0.6	1.4	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

YTD
1.8	5.6	19.7	High
2.9	5.3	12.1	Med	QUALITY
1.1	3.4	19.0	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/20/20 (%)

END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)

	END OF WEEK	PRIOR YEAR END	YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr	0.15	1.58	-143
10 Yr	0.83	1.92	-109
30 Yr	1.53	2.39	-86
2-10 spread	0.68	0.34	+34
10-30 spread	0.70	0.47	+23

U.S. bond sector total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
Aggregate	0.6	7.3
Bank loans	0.2	-0.2
Convertible	2.6	35.4
Corporate	0.7	8.8
High yield	0.6	3.4
MBS	0.1	3.7
Municipal	0.6	4.4
Preferreds	0.5	4.9
TIPS	0.4	9.1
Treasury	0.5	8.4

Global bond total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM Local	1.4	-1.2
EMD USD	0.5	3.2
Global Agg	0.7	7.5
Global Agg Ex-U.S.	0.8	7.3
Multiverse	0.7	7.2

Commodities (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
BBG Com Ind	0.6	-8.0
Oil (WTI)	5.0	-56.7
Gold	-0.8	19.9

Currencies (USD) (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM FX	0.9	-2.9
AUD	0.9	4.0
CAD	0.7	-0.8
CHF	0.2	6.2
EUR	0.3	5.6
GBP	1.0	0.3
JPY	0.8	4.7

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

	GDP Growth (%) annualized	Inflation Rate (%) CPI	Unemployment Rate (%)	10-Year Government Bond (%)	Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	-4.4	-0.3	8.3	_	_
China	4.9	0.5	5.3	3.37	A+
Germany	-4.3	-0.2	4.5	-0.58	AAA
Japan	-5.8	-0.4	3.0	0.02	A+
U.K.	-9.6	0.7	4.8	0.31	AA

GDP Growth (%) annualized
Eurozone	-4.4
China	4.9
Germany	-4.3
Japan	-5.8
U.K.	-9.6

Inflation Rate (%) CPI
Eurozone	-0.3
China	0.5
Germany	-0.2
Japan	-0.4
U.K.	0.7

Unemployment Rate (%)
Eurozone	8.3
China	5.3
Germany	4.5
Japan	3.0
U.K.	4.8

10-Year Government Bond (%)
Eurozone	_
China	3.37
Germany	-0.58
Japan	0.02
U.K.	0.31

Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	_
China	A+
Germany	AAA
Japan	A+
U.K.	AA

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 10/31/20 ($B)

as tracked by ISS Market Intelligence SIMFUND

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
U.S. Equity	-43.3	-255.0	9,089.9
Sector Equity	2.6	14.7	939.4
Allocation	-6.5	-66.8	1,108.3
International Equity	-3.2	-67.5	3,160.2
Alternative	1.4	8.9	186.5
Commodities	-0.6	41.0	165.0
Taxable Bond	62.0	312.7	4,912.9
Municipal Bond	5.7	34.6	898.5
Total all long-term funds	13.9	-3.9	20,471.3

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/20 ($B)

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Intermediate Core Bond	15.2	76.7	1,229.3
Short-Term Bond	11.0	54.5	509.2
Ultrashort Bond	7.3	29.1	306.4
Intermediate Core-Plus Bond	6.5	44.6	786.1
Intermediate Government	4.2	16.6	206.2

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/20 ($B)

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Large Growth	-16.8	-57.3	2,143.1
Large Blend	-14.4	-86.7	4,118.3
Large Value	-3.8	-39.7	1,066.9
Mid-Cap Value	-2.6	-21.9	214.2
Allocation--50% to 70% Equity	-2.4	-21.3	563.4

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global GDP, and over 75% of global trade.

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Detailed weekly data on equities and fixed income—factors, fundamentals, styles/sizes, sectors/industries/stocks

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November 20, 2020

Floating-rate funds: why now?

Kimberly M. Harris, Portfolio Manager Bain Capital Credit

Andrew Carlino, Portfolio Manager Bain Capital Credit

Nathaniel D. Whittier, Director, Portfolio Manager Bain Capital Credit

With interest rates near zero or negative throughout much of the world, why should investors looking for yield turn to floating-rate notes? It turns out they provide meaningful yield and senior credit standing while planting the seeds for protection against eventual inflation and rising rates.

November 19, 2020

Market outlook: macro themes that could influence returns in the months ahead

Nathan W. Thooft, CFA, Head of Global Asset Allocation Manulife Investment Management

Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Macroeconomic Strategy Manulife Investment Management

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought us back to an ultra-low interest-rate environment. Find out how it could have changed returns expectations across different asset classes.

November 13, 2020

Why Purchasing Managers’ Indexes have become closely watched economic indicators

John Hancock Investment Management

Learn why Purchasing Managers’ Indexes, or PMIs, have become key indicators to watch as the global economy charts an uneven path toward postpandemic recovery.

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