Weekly Market Recap
Week ended February 13
Market-moving news
Downward trend
The major U.S. stock indexes fell around 1% to 2% as shifting narratives about AI prospects and technology stocks continued to drive the broader market. For the S&P 500, it was the fourth negative week out of the past five, although the previous declines were all less than 1%.
Jobs resilience
U.S. jobs growth exceeded expectations, helping to ease recent concerns about labor market weakness. The gain of 130,000 jobs in January was more than double the number that most economists had forecast and up from 48,000 in December. January’s unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4% the previous month.
Inflation moderation
Friday’s Consumer Price Index report extended a recent trend of slightly cooler-than-expected inflation. CPI rose at an annual rate of 2.4% in January, down from 2.7% the previous month, and the lowest figure since May 2025. Economists had forecast inflation of 2.5% in the latest month.
Japanese rally
A Japanese stock benchmark surged nearly 6% for the week to a record high following an election result that gave the ruling party of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a supermajority in the nation’s Lower House. Japan’s market has recently been lifted by prospects of higher fiscal spending, tax relief, and a more assertive economic growth agenda.
Yields fall
Prices of U.S. government bonds rose, sending yields lower, after softer-than-expected inflation data boosted investor optimism about the prospect of additional interest rate cuts in the coming months. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury finished the week at a year-to-date low of around 4.05%, down from about 4.20% at the end of the previous week.
Earnings outperformance
With earnings season nearly three-quarters completed as of Friday, overall earnings growth remained well above analysts’ expectations relative to forecasts before the start of the reporting period. S&P 500 companies’ earnings were expected to rise by an average of 13.2% versus a forecast for about 8.3% growth as of December 31, according to FactSet.
Retail weakness
December sales at U.S. retailers were essentially unchanged relative to the previous month. The flat result from the peak month of the holiday shopping season was well below the expectations of most economists, who had projected a month-to-month sales increase of around 0.4%.
GDP ahead
A report scheduled for release on Friday will show whether the U.S. economy’s recent rapid growth extended into last year’s fourth quarter. The government’s release of its initial GDP estimate follows the 4.4% annual growth rate recorded in the third quarter, which was the fastest in two years.
The week ahead: February 16-20
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 2/13/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.4 | -1.3 | -2.1 | Large | |
| 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.9 | Medium | |
| -0.3 | -0.9 | -1.4 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 6.4 | 0.1 | -5.4 | Large | |
| 8.0 | 5.7 | -1.9 | Medium | |
| 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 2/13/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 49,500.9 | -1.2 | 3.1 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 22,546.7 | -2.1 | -3.0 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,836.2 | -1.3 | 0.0 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,116.6 | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 20.6 | 15.7 | 36.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 1.9 | 7.8 |
| Europe | 0.5 | 5.3 |
| France | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Italy | -1.1 | 1.8 |
| Japan | 5.9 | 14.9 |
| Spain | -1.7 | 2.4 |
| Switzerland | 1.4 | 5.6 |
| U.K. | 0.8 | 6.8 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 3.2 | 10.8 |
| Brazil | 1.3 | 19.1 |
| China | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| India | -0.6 | -2.7 |
| Indonesia | 0.6 | -5.4 |
| Korea | 10.9 | 34.9 |
| Mexico | 1.7 | 17.2 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 7.2 | 18.2 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.3 | 0.0 |
| Communication services | -3.5 | -2.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | -2.1 | -4.9 |
| Consumer staples | 1.4 | 15.8 |
| Energy | 1.9 | 21.8 |
| Financials | -4.8 | -5.6 |
| Healthcare | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Industrials | 0.6 | 12.3 |
| Information tech | -2.0 | -4.9 |
| Materials | 3.7 | 16.6 |
| Real estate | 5.1 | 10.6 |
| Utilities | 7.3 | 9.0 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 2/13/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.5 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | Medium | |
| 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.9 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 2/13/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.41 | 3.48 | -7 |
| 10 Yr | 4.05 | 4.16 | -11 |
| 30 Yr | 4.70 | 4.84 | -14 |
| 2-10 spread | 64 | 68 | -4 |
| 10-30 spread | 65 | 68 | -3 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Convertible | 0.5 | 6.1 |
| Corporate | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| High yield | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| MBS | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Municipal | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Preferreds | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| TIPS | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Treasury | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.7 | 4.2 |
| EMD USD | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Global Agg | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Multiverse | 1.0 | 1.7 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -0.4 | 7.4 |
| Oil (WTI) | -0.9 | 10.5 |
| Gold | 1.4 | 15.9 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.8 | 5.9 |
| CAD | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| CHF | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| EUR | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| GBP | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| JPY | 2.4 | 2.4 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.3 | 1.7 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.5 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 1.81 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.4 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 2.76 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.21 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4.42 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 1/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -33.5 | -69.9 | 18,248.6 |
| Sector Equity | 29.5 | 31.4 | 1,767.0 |
| Allocation | -3.5 | -60.2 | 1,581.9 |
| International Equity | 35.9 | 87.3 | 5,585.3 |
| Alternative | 4.2 | 16.2 | 132.6 |
| Commodities | 7.8 | 63.2 | 433.6 |
| Taxable Bond | 90.0 | 584.7 | 6,634.0 |
| Municipal Bond | 14.6 | 70.2 | 1,023.5 |
| Total all long-term funds | 145.3 | 760.2 | 36,093.1 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 1/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 27.2 | 129.8 | 1,637.7 |
| Diversified Emerging Mkts | 16.3 | 19.4 | 916.5 |
| Multisector Bond | 10.9 | 82.7 | 451.1 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 9.0 | 87.1 | 2,347.1 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 8.6 | 46.7 | 921.4 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 1/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -12.6 | -70.0 | 3,577.6 |
| Large Value | -9.4 | -28.1 | 2,343.3 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -8.3 | -21.2 | 131.4 |
| Small Blend | -6.9 | -35.2 | 681.9 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.8 | -40.7 | 850.5 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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