Weekly Market Recap
Week ended May 16
Market-moving news
Rebound resumes
The S&P 500 finished the week up more than 5% as the major U.S. indexes rebounded sharply from the previous week’s fractional declines. The latest results marked the fourth positive week out of the past six as stocks continued to regain their footing following the sharp declines recorded in late February to early April.
Trade progress
The bulk of U.S. stocks’ weekly gains came on Monday following trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. U.S. and Chinese negotiators agreed to sharply reduce rates for many recently introduced tariffs for 90 days while pursuing further talks that could result in a longer-term agreement.
Bear-to-bull NASDAQ
The NASDAQ has generated more volatile results than other major U.S. indexes in recent months, and on Monday it entered a bull market just six weeks after sinking into a short-lived bear market. The index’s 4% gain on Monday pushed it more than 20% above a recent low on April 8. On Friday, the NASDAQ closed less than 5% below its record high set on December 16, 2024.
Inflation moderation
A Consumer Price Index report showed that price increases continued to moderate in April even as higher tariffs began to take effect. Prices rose 2.3% over the same month a year earlier, down slightly from March’s 2.4% annual inflation rate and marking the smallest increase since February 2021. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core inflation was unchanged at 2.8% in April relative to March.
Consumer anxiety
A survey that measures U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fifth month in a row to the lowest level in nearly three years. The University of Michigan said on Friday that a preliminary reading from its Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.8 from a final reading of 52.2 in April. Most economists had predicted that sentiment would improve in May.
Volatility eases
An index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell for the seventh week in a row to roughly its year-end 2024 level. The Cboe Volatility Index closed on Friday down about 67% from a recent closing high reached on April 8, when uncertainty about tariffs sent the index sharply higher.
Gold retreats
The price of gold fell for the third week out of the past four, marking a pause in a year-to-date rally that pushed the precious metal to a record high in April. Gold was trading around $3,200 per ounce on Friday afternoon, down nearly 5% for the week and well below its record of more than $3,400 set less than four weeks earlier.
Sales flatten
U.S. retail sales posted a small monthly increase after surging the previous month in a bigger-than-expected gain that many analysts attributed to a spike in purchasing ahead of higher tariffs. Thursday’s report of a 0.1% sales rise in April followed a 1.7% surge in March.
The week ahead: May 19-23
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 5/16/25 (%)
1 week
| 3.3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | Large | |
| 3.9 | 4.7 | 7.0 | Medium | |
| 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | Large | |
| 1.7 | 3.1 | 6.9 | Medium | |
| -5.4 | -4.8 | -4.2 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 5/16/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 42,654.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 19,211.1 | 7.2 | -0.3 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,958.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,549.9 | 1.0 | 14.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 17.2 | -21.5 | 1.1 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 1.0 | 14.7 |
| Europe | 1.3 | 18.8 |
| France | 1.1 | 17.3 |
| Germany | 0.1 | 28.6 |
| Italy | 2.1 | 30.2 |
| Japan | -0.5 | 6.3 |
| Spain | 2.6 | 36.8 |
| Switzerland | 0.9 | 17.9 |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 14.4 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 3.1 | 10.2 |
| Brazil | 1.2 | 23.7 |
| China | 2.2 | 15.6 |
| India | 4.8 | 3.9 |
| Indonesia | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| Korea | 2.8 | 15.4 |
| Mexico | 2.0 | 26.5 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 5.4 | 3.1 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 5.3 | 1.8 |
| Communication services | 6.6 | 2.1 |
| Consumer discretionary | 7.8 | -4.6 |
| Consumer staples | 1.6 | 6.9 |
| Energy | 3.5 | 0.7 |
| Financials | 3.5 | 7.3 |
| Healthcare | 0.3 | -2.8 |
| Industrials | 5.6 | 9.4 |
| Information tech | 8.2 | -0.4 |
| Materials | 2.5 | 3.9 |
| Real estate | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| Utilities | 2.5 | 9.4 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 5/16/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.8 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.4 | Medium | |
| 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.4 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.9 | 2.4 | -0.1 | Medium | |
| 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 5/16/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.00 | 4.23 | -23 |
| 10 Yr | 4.44 | 4.57 | -13 |
| 30 Yr | 4.90 | 4.79 | 11 |
| 2-10 spread | 45 | 34 | 11 |
| 10-30 spread | 46 | 22 | 24 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.2 | 2.0 |
| Bank loans | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Convertible | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| Corporate | 0.3 | 2.4 |
| High yield | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| MBS | -0.3 | 2.2 |
| Municipal | 0.0 | -0.8 |
| Preferreds | -0.3 | -1.7 |
| TIPS | -0.2 | 3.2 |
| Treasury | -0.3 | 2.1 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.3 | 8.7 |
| EMD USD | 0.8 | 3.0 |
| Global Agg | -0.5 | 4.2 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.6 | 5.6 |
| Multiverse | -0.4 | 4.2 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -1.7 | 3.9 |
| Oil (WTI) | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Gold | -4.6 | 20.2 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.1 | 6.5 |
| AUD | -0.4 | 3.3 |
| CAD | -0.4 | 2.9 |
| CHF | -1.2 | 8.0 |
| EUR | -1.0 | 7.7 |
| GBP | -0.3 | 5.9 |
| JPY | -0.6 | 7.7 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 2.2 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 1.69 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 2.59 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.46 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 4.65 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 4/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 18.1 | 210.1 | 15,061.1 |
| Sector Equity | -16.6 | -36.0 | 1,334.3 |
| Allocation | -9.2 | -79.2 | 1,390.2 |
| International Equity | -8.1 | -23.8 | 4,376.6 |
| Alternative | 3.9 | 41.0 | 224.1 |
| Commodities | 4.2 | 21.1 | 237.0 |
| Taxable Bond | -42.9 | 398.7 | 5,888.5 |
| Municipal Bond | -5.9 | 41.9 | 929.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | -41.2 | 614.3 | 29,821.2 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 4/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 35.6 | 288.4 | 8,040.0 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 17.0 | 104.6 | 451.2 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 8.6 | 18.9 | 93.7 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 4.7 | 60.9 | 1,813.2 |
| Short-Term Bond | 4.2 | 8.6 | 527.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 4/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | -22.0 | 72.1 | 1,467.7 |
| High Yield Bond | -11.1 | 22.4 | 360.6 |
| Bank Loan | -10.1 | -3.7 | 95.0 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | -9.4 | 34.0 | 843.7 |
| Long Government | -6.2 | 16.0 | 171.4 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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