Weekly Market Recap
Week ended July 24
Market-moving news
Modestly negative
The S&P 500 and the Dow finished fractionally lower for the week and the NASDAQ dropped more than 2%. Stocks alternated between gains and losses throughout the week, extending a pattern that dates to early June, when the S&P 500 and NASDAQ set record highs.
Energy shocks
Escalation in the Middle East conflict and further shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea lifted oil prices. U.S. crude was trading around $90 per barrel on Friday afternoon, up from roughly $82 at the end of the previous week and $69 as recently as early July.
Yields spike
Prices of U.S. government bonds fell for the second week in a row, sending yields higher ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The 10-year U.S. Treasury peaked around 4.70% on Thursday—the highest in more than a year and a half—before closing at 4.68% on Friday. Yields of 2- and 30-year Treasuries also surged, reaching 4.33% and 5.17%, respectively, on Friday.
Earnings upgrade
Earnings season forecasts were adjusted sharply higher after a mega-cap tech company reported better-than-expected results. As of Friday, analysts projected that earnings for S&P 500 companies rose an average 37.9% in the second quarter, up from a 24.8% forecast at the end of the previous week, according to FactSet. The latest forecast was based on the roughly one-quarter of S&P 500 companies that had reported results as of Friday, plus projections for those that hadn’t yet released numbers.
Elevated global yields
Bond yields pushed higher in key developed markets outside the United States. In the United Kingdom, 10-year government bond yields rose above 5.00% while the equivalent German yield hit its highest level since 2011. Japanese yields recently approached levels last seen in the 1990s.
Mortgage rates rise
The recent rise in bond yields is affecting the U.S. housing market, as mortgage rates have climbed to the highest level in nearly a year. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.58%, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly update. The average rate had briefly slipped below 6.00% in February, sparking forecasts of a rebound in home sales, which have recently been in a slump.
New tariffs
The Trump administration on Friday imposed new tariffs on dozens of the United States’ biggest trading partners, including the European Union. The new 10.0% to 12.5% duties follow the expiration of a 10.0% global tariff that the administration had implemented in February 2026 after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a prior tariff regime.
Busy week ahead
In addition to more quarterly earnings reports, the new week will bring a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting that concludes on Wednesday. On Thursday, investors will assess an initial estimate of second-quarter GDP growth and June’s inflation rate, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
The week ahead: July 27-31
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 7/24/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.6 | -1.5 | Large | |
| 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.7 | Medium | |
| -0.4 | -1.1 | -1.7 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 19.0 | 8.8 | -0.2 | Large | |
| 18.9 | 14.2 | 0.2 | Medium | |
| 23.1 | 18.8 | 14.8 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 7/24/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,947.3 | -0.4 | 9.0 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 24,975.8 | -2.1 | 7.8 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,412.0 | -0.6 | 9.0 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,113.5 | 0.5 | 9.8 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 18.6 | -1.1 | 24.0 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.5 | 9.8 |
| Europe | 0.0 | 8.1 |
| France | -0.2 | 2.6 |
| Germany | 0.1 | -0.8 |
| Italy | 0.2 | 13.2 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 14.3 |
| Spain | 1.4 | 12.7 |
| Switzerland | -1.7 | 7.3 |
| U.K. | 0.5 | 9.4 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.5 | 17.5 |
| Brazil | 2.0 | 14.4 |
| China | 0.9 | -10.7 |
| India | -2.0 | -11.6 |
| Indonesia | -2.6 | -34.8 |
| Korea | -1.3 | 76.5 |
| Mexico | 0.3 | 11.6 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 2.7 | 52.8 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.6 | 9.0 |
| Communication services | -6.1 | -3.8 |
| Consumer discretionary | -6.1 | -7.6 |
| Consumer staples | -1.2 | 9.1 |
| Energy | 3.8 | 35.0 |
| Financials | 0.1 | 3.8 |
| Healthcare | 0.9 | 6.0 |
| Industrials | 1.8 | 18.4 |
| Information tech | 0.4 | 15.8 |
| Materials | 1.2 | 12.0 |
| Real estate | 1.5 | 20.5 |
| Utilities | 2.5 | 9.9 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 7/24/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.1 | -0.4 | -1.4 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.2 | -0.6 | -1.7 | Medium | |
| -0.3 | -0.6 | -1.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.3 | -0.2 | -2.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.7 | -0.2 | -2.0 | Medium | |
| 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 7/24/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.33 | 3.48 | 85 |
| 10 Yr | 4.68 | 4.16 | 52 |
| 30 Yr | 5.17 | 4.84 | 33 |
| 2-10 spread | 35 | 68 | -33 |
| 10-30 spread | 48 | 68 | -20 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Convertible | -0.1 | 14.7 |
| Corporate | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| High yield | -0.6 | 1.5 |
| MBS | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Municipal | -1.2 | 0.3 |
| Preferreds | -1.0 | -1.7 |
| TIPS | -0.7 | 0.3 |
| Treasury | -0.6 | -0.7 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.5 | 2.5 |
| EMD USD | -0.9 | 1.9 |
| Global Agg | -0.7 | -1.4 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.7 | -1.9 |
| Multiverse | -0.7 | -1.2 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 2.8 | 25.6 |
| Oil (WTI) | 9.3 | 87.9 |
| Gold | 1.4 | -6.4 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.1 | 4.8 |
| CAD | -0.5 | -2.7 |
| CHF | -1.3 | -3.1 |
| EUR | -0.5 | -3.1 |
| GBP | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| JPY | -0.8 | -4.3 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 0.3 | 2.8 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.3 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.73 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.4 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 3.17 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.82 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 5.05 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 26.8 | 17.1 | 20,022.9 |
| Sector Equity | 16.6 | 130.1 | 2,102.7 |
| Allocation | -6.1 | -56.6 | 1,627.5 |
| International Equity | -1.5 | 132.4 | 6,040.9 |
| Alternative | 4.8 | 29.3 | 154.5 |
| Commodities | -5.6 | 26.2 | 337.2 |
| Taxable Bond | 73.2 | 778.6 | 6,968.7 |
| Municipal Bond | 9.9 | 104.6 | 1,082.1 |
| Total all long-term funds | 124.7 | 1,168.6 | 39,070.4 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 61.3 | 267.4 | 10,623.5 |
| Technology | 17.8 | 76.5 | 894.7 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 15.8 | 177.3 | 1,702.5 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 11.8 | 106.1 | 545.1 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 10.9 | 111.3 | 2,538.3 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -21.3 | -99.0 | 3,891.40 |
| Commodities Focused | -5.9 | 22.2 | 277.1 |
| Diversified Emerging Markets | -4.7 | 31.1 | 1,044.30 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -4.7 | -45.1 | 364.6 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.5 | -43.8 | 876.5 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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