Weekly Market Recap
Week ended July 3
Market-moving news
Regaining momentum
The latest turn in shifting narratives about AI and semiconductor prospects lifted the major U.S. stock indexes, as each finished around 2% higher for the week on Thursday, before Friday’s pre-holiday market closure. The Dow climbed to a record high, while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ remained below the peak levels they recorded on June 2.
Q2’s rally
As the second quarter concluded on Tuesday, the NASDAQ ended up more than 21% higher for the three-month period while the S&P 500 climbed nearly 15%—the biggest quarterly gains for both indexes since 2020. The Dow added 13%, its best quarter since 2022. The results marked a shift from this year’s first quarter, when the indexes sustained their largest quarterly declines in nearly four years.
Jobs setback
U.S. jobs growth fell short of economists’ expectations in June, marking a shift after gains exceeded consensus forecasts in the preceding three months. The economy generated 57,000 new jobs last month—roughly half the total that had been expected—and initial estimates of gains in April and May were adjusted downward by a combined 74,000.
Oil stabilizes
The price of oil fell at the start of July, extending the previous month’s 20% decline. U.S. crude was trading around $68 per barrel on Thursday afternoon, well below the commodity’s $87+ level at the end of May. Thursday’s price was roughly in line with oil’s level in late February, before the Middle East conflict escalated.
Bitcoin’s rough June
The price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency climbed on the first two trading days of July, but the modest gains didn’t come close to offsetting Bitcoin’s sharp decline in June. The price dropped by more than 20%, ending the month on Tuesday below $59,000 after closing out May at nearly $74,000.
Gold’s retreat
A modest weekly gain for gold did little to soften the precious metal’s price sharp decline from a record high set more than five months ago. Gold was trading around $4,140 on Thursday, well below its peak of more than $5,500 reached in late January. As recently as mid-April, the price was around $4,800.
Yields rebound
Prices of U.S. government bonds fell, sending yields higher, amid persistent concerns about U.S. inflationary pressures and the interest rate outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.49% as of Thursday afternoon, up from 4.37% at the end of the previous week but down from a recent peak of 4.66% on May 19.
Earnings outlook
Growth expectations remain strong as major U.S. banks prepare to kick off earnings season in mid-July. As of Thursday, analysts were expecting S&P 500 companies to report second-quarter earnings growth of 23.3% on average, according to FactSet. If that proves to be the actual growth rate, it would mark the second consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 20%.
The week ahead: July 6-10
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 7/3/26 (%)
1 week
| 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | Large | |
| 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | Medium | |
| -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 18.4 | 10.1 | 2.8 | Large | |
| 18.6 | 15.3 | 4.7 | Medium | |
| 23.0 | 21.4 | 20.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 7/3/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,900.1 | 2.0 | 11.0 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 25,832.7 | 2.1 | 11.5 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,483.2 | 1.8 | 10.0 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,169.4 | 2.8 | 11.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.2 | -12.0 | 8.0 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 2.8 | 11.7 |
| Europe | 3.1 | 10.2 |
| France | 2.3 | 5.0 |
| Germany | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| Italy | 3.6 | 14.3 |
| Japan | 2.4 | 18.3 |
| Spain | 3.1 | 14.1 |
| Switzerland | 2.6 | 10.5 |
| U.K. | 2.8 | 8.8 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 1.0 | 24.1 |
| Brazil | 0.8 | 11.1 |
| China | 3.5 | -13.7 |
| India | -0.1 | -9.0 |
| Indonesia | -1.4 | -38.2 |
| Korea | -5.1 | 109.8 |
| Mexico | -0.4 | 11.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 5.2 | 64.7 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.8 | 10.0 |
| Communication services | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| Consumer discretionary | 2.8 | -0.8 |
| Consumer staples | 0.1 | 10.3 |
| Energy | -1.0 | 20.0 |
| Financials | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| Healthcare | 2.1 | 6.8 |
| Industrials | 1.4 | 19.3 |
| Information tech | 0.9 | 15.8 |
| Materials | 1.1 | 14.7 |
| Real estate | -1.5 | 16.3 |
| Utilities | -1.0 | 8.7 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 7/3/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.2 | -1.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.0 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | Medium | |
| 1.9 | 2.0 | 3.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 7/3/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.17 | 3.48 | 69 |
| 10 Yr | 4.49 | 4.16 | 33 |
| 30 Yr | 4.98 | 4.84 | 14 |
| 2-10 spread | 31 | 68 | -37 |
| 10-30 spread | 49 | 68 | -19 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bank loans | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Convertible | -0.8 | 18.5 |
| Corporate | -0.5 | 0.4 |
| High yield | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| MBS | -0.5 | 0.9 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | 2.2 |
| Preferreds | 0.7 | -0.8 |
| TIPS | -0.3 | 1.0 |
| Treasury | -0.5 | 0.1 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.5 | 4.0 |
| EMD USD | -0.1 | 3.1 |
| Global Agg | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.0 | -0.8 |
| Multiverse | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 0.1 | 14.3 |
| Oil (WTI) | -0.3 | 44.2 |
| Gold | 0.8 | -5.3 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.5 | 4.0 |
| CAD | 0.0 | -3.5 |
| CHF | 0.7 | -1.4 |
| EUR | 0.4 | -2.6 |
| GBP | 1.2 | -0.7 |
| JPY | 0.3 | -2.8 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 0.3 | 2.8 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.0 | 1.2 | 5.1 | 1.74 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.4 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.93 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.78 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.79 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 5/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -1.0 | -48.2 | 19,943.0 |
| Sector Equity | 19.2 | 116.5 | 2,069.6 |
| Allocation | -4.6 | -55.6 | 1,635.7 |
| International Equity | -14.4 | 144.5 | 6,057.4 |
| Alternative | 6.7 | 25.5 | 150.0 |
| Commodities | -0.3 | 38.0 | 391.2 |
| Taxable Bond | 98.7 | 755.9 | 6,889.1 |
| Municipal Bond | 14.9 | 100.8 | 1,064.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 118.3 | 1,085.3 | 38,955.8 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 25.2 | 180.6 | 1,684.5 |
| Technology | 19.9 | 61.4 | 859.4 |
| Large Blend | 13.8 | 204.2 | 10,620.4 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 13.5 | 96.5 | 532.4 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 12.6 | 71.5 | 947.5 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5.3 | -52.8 | 191.6 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -4.5 | -38.5 | 536.5 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -4.2 | -44.4 | 357.3 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.9 | -42.7 | 879.9 |
| Large Growth | -3.6 | -90.7 | 3,955.1 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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