Weekly Market Recap

Week ended September 17

Capital market performance report

Detailed weekly data on equities and fixed income—factors, fundamentals, styles/sizes, sectors/industries/stocks

Market-moving news

Small pullback

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell for the second week in a row amid choppy trading, although their latest weekly declines were modest at just 0.5%. The Dow's decline was even smaller; that index posted its third straight negative result.

Stalled momentum

With less than two weeks remaining in September, the stock market’s modest decline since the early part of the month threatens to snap the S&P 500’s string of seven positive months in a row. As of Friday, the index was down more than 2% from a record high achieved on September 2.

Inflation moderation

While inflation remained strong, the recent spike in U.S. consumer prices moderated in August. The Consumer Price Index rose 5.3% compared with the same month a year earlier, but the rate of increase was down slightly from July’s figure and was markedly below June’s surge in inflation.

Retail therapy

Despite a recent decline in consumer sentiment, U.S. retail spending unexpectedly rebounded. Sales rose 0.7% in August, marking a sharp turnaround from July’s 1.8% decline. The August result could temper expectations for a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter.

Crude awakening

U.S. crude oil prices rose above $70 per barrel for the first time in a month and a half and climbed as high as $73 as further storms in the Gulf of Mexico threatened to disrupt oil production there. Thursday marked the fifth consecutive daily gain for crude prices, although oil pulled back on Friday as the threat from the latest storm eased.

Shaken confidence

The recent deterioration in U.S. consumers’ economic expectations has eased somewhat, according to a preliminary reading released on Friday. The University of Michigan said its monthly consumer sentiment index came in slightly above its figure in August, when sentiment fell sharply among survey participants.

China's retail slump

China’s 2.5% growth in August retail sales was far slower than most economists had expected as restrictions targeting an outbreak of COVID-19’s Delta variant weighed on consumer activity. Monthly growth in China’s industrial production was also below expectations.

Fed ahead

At its two-day meeting that concludes on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to explore when to trim its bond-purchasing stimulus program as an initial step toward broadly tightening its monetary policy. Recently uneven economic data has fueled talk among economists that the Fed may hold off on setting a specific tapering date while tying policy changes to job growth in September and beyond.

The week ahead: September 20-24

Monday

No major reports scheduled

Tuesday

U.S. Federal Reserve Board opens two-day policy meeting
Housing starts, U.S. Census Bureau

Wednesday

U.S. Federal Reserve Board concludes two-day policy meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell holds press conference
Existing home sales, National Association of Realtors

Thursday

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S
Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor

Friday

New home sales, U.S. Census Bureau

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 9/17/21 (%)

1 week YTD

1 week
-0.3	-0.4	-0.6	Large
-0.5	-0.4	-0.1	Mid
0.2	0.5	0.7	Small
Value	Core	Growth

YTD
17.8	18.6	19.3	Large
19.8	18.0	14.5	Mid
22.6	14.0	6.0	Small
Value	Core	Growth

Index/market total returns as of 9/17/21 (%)

Close Week YTD

	Close	Week	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	34,584.9	-0.1	14.6
NASDAQ Composite Index	15,044.0	-0.5	17.3
S&P 500 Index	4,433.0	-0.5	19.3
MSCI EAFE Index	2,348.5	-1.4	11.7
Cboe Volatility Index	20.8	-1.0	-8.8

International/developed (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EAFE	-1.4	11.7
Europe	-1.8	13.3
France	-2.2	14.6
Germany	-1.9	8.3
Italy	-0.9	10.7
Japan	0.3	10.6
Spain	-0.4	4.1
Switzerland	-2.3	9.8
U.K.	-1.7	12.0

Emerging markets (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM	-2.2	0.9
Brazil	-4.8	-8.9
China	-4.8	-14.7
India	0.9	28.7
Indonesia	-1.2	-7.2
Korea	0.1	-4.2
Mexico	-1.0	18.3
Russia	1.3	28.8
Taiwan	-1.9	20.6

S&P 500 sectors (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
S&P 500 Index	-0.5	19.3
Communication services	-1.2	26.9
Consumer discretionary	0.5	13.4
Consumer staples	-0.7	8.0
Energy	3.3	33.6
Financials	-0.1	28.7
Healthcare	-0.2	18.1
Industrials	-1.6	14.1
Information tech	-0.7	19.8
Materials	-3.2	13.1
Real estate	0.0	30.3
Utilities	-3.0	7.5

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 9/17/21 (%)

1 week YTD

1 week
0.0	-0.1	0.4	High
0.0	-0.1	0.3	Med	QUALITY
0.1	0.2	0.3	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

YTD
0.1	-0.8	-4.5	High
0.0	-0.4	1.3	Med	QUALITY
5.4	5.1	8.9	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 9/17/21 (%)

END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)

	END OF WEEK	PRIOR YEAR END	YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr	0.23	0.12	11
10 Yr	1.37	0.92	45
30 Yr	1.91	1.65	26
2-10 spread	1.15	0.80	35
10-30 spread	0.54	0.73	-19

U.S. bond sector total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
Aggregate	0.0	-0.8
Bank loans	0.1	2.2
Convertible	0.4	7.5
Corporate	-0.1	-0.7
High yield	0.2	5.1
MBS	-0.1	-0.4
Municipal	0.0	1.5
Preferreds	0.2	1.0
TIPS	-0.4	4.2
Treasury	0.0	-1.6

Global bond total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM Local	-1.4	-4.1
EMD USD	-0.2	0.7
Global Agg	-0.5	-2.8
Global Agg Ex-U.S.	-0.8	-3.9
Multiverse	-0.5	-2.6

Commodities (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
BBG Com Ind	0.5	25.0
Oil (WTI)	3.4	51.6
Gold	-2.3	-8.2

Currencies (USD) (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM FX	-0.3	-2.3
AUD	-1.4	-5.7
CAD	-1.0	-0.1
CHF	-1.5	-5.1
EUR	-0.8	-4.1
GBP	-0.8	0.6
JPY	-0.1	-6.1

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

	GDP Growth (%) annualized	Inflation Rate (%) CPI	Unemployment Rate (%)	10-Year Government Bond (%)	Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	14.3	3.0	7.6	_	_
China	7.9	0.8	5.1	2.89	A+
Germany	9.4	3.9	3.6	-0.28	AAA
Japan	7.6	-0.3	2.8	0.07	A+
U.K.	22.2	3.2	4.6	0.85	AA

GDP Growth (%) annualized
Eurozone	14.3
China	7.9
Germany	9.4
Japan	7.6
U.K.	22.2

Inflation Rate (%) CPI
Eurozone	3.0
China	0.8
Germany	3.9
Japan	-0.3
U.K.	3.2

Unemployment Rate (%)
Eurozone	7.6
China	5.1
Germany	3.6
Japan	2.8
U.K.	4.6

10-Year Government Bond (%)
Eurozone	_
China	2.89
Germany	-0.28
Japan	0.07
U.K.	0.85

Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	_
China	A+
Germany	AAA
Japan	A+
U.K.	AA

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 8/31/21 ($B)

as tracked by ISS Market Intelligence SIMFUND

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
U.S. Equity	4.6	24.9	12,783.4
Sector Equity	4.8	102.8	1,399.0
Allocation	0.6	-22.5	1,503.9
International Equity	23.9	188.8	4,278.4
Alternative	2.9	22.1	128.1
Commodities	-1.1	0.0	173.4
Taxable Bond	47.0	669.9	5,455.4
Municipal Bond	11.0	119.9	1043.8
Total all long-term funds	93.2	1,065.1	26,891.3

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/21 ($B)

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Large Blend	13.8	39.4	5,882.2
Foreign Large Blend	12.9	58.0	1,433.6
Short-Term Bond	7.5	115.8	600.4
Diversified Emerging Mkts	5.9	59.3	761.0
Intermediate Core Bond	5.2	174.4	1,245.8

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/21 ($B)

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Mid-Cap Growth	-4.1	-3.7	693.7
Large Growth	-3.8	-78.8	2,739.0
Small Growth	-2.8	-1.7	333.6
Trading--Leveraged Equity	-2.8	-6.0	64.7
Commodities Focused	-2.2	-15.8	121.5

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

Note: Totals displayed do not repsent the sum of the columns due to miscellaneous funds not assigned to a Morningstar category.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global GDP, and over 75% of global trade.

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