Weekly Market Recap
Week ended April 18
Market-moving news
Losing traction
News about tariffs continued to loom over quarterly earnings season and stocks couldn’t maintain the previous week’s sharply positive momentum. The S&P 500 fell around 1.5% and the Dow and NASDAQ both dropped around 2.6% in a trading week that was shortened by the observance of Good Friday.
Dollar’s decline
Amid elevated trade tensions, the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s chief reserve currency came under renewed pressure. Its value relative to a basket of other major currencies fell for the sixth week out of the past seven, and the dollar slipped on Thursday to a three-year low, more than 8% below its year-end 2024 level.
Fed dilemma?
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech that the central bank will "wait for greater clarity" before considering any interest rate adjustments. Powell expects higher tariffs to generate "higher inflation and slower growth," and he warned about a possible "challenging scenario” in which the Fed struggles to balance its dual mandate to maximize employment while keeping prices stable.
Small caps outperform
Although U.S. small-cap stocks continued to lag large caps by a big margin year to date, a small-cap benchmark had a breakout week. While its large-cap peers generated negative weekly results, the Russell 2000 Index finished up more than 1%.
Gold’s long climb
The price of gold rose for the sixth week out of the past seven, eclipsing the $3,300-per-ounce level for the first time just a week after topping $3,200 an ounce. On Friday, gold was trading around $3,335, up more than 25% year to date.
Retail therapy
Despite recent surveys indicating a decline in consumer sentiment, U.S. retailers posted a bigger-than-expected increase in sales during March, with a 1.4% gain relative to the prior month. While automobile-related sales provided much of the overall gain, the numbers excluding autos were also stronger than expected.
Europe cuts again
The European Central Bank approved an interest rate cut for its seventh policy meeting in a row. Thursday’s move came in response to recently weak European economic growth as the continent ramps up defense and infrastructure spending and faces rising tensions over tariffs.
China’s GDP checkup
The world’s second-largest economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter, exceeding most economists’ expectations for the second quarter in a row. In addition, China’s government reported that its retail sales rose by 5.9% in March while industrial output expanded by 7.7%―results that also exceeded consensus forecasts.
The week ahead: April 21-25
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 4/18/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -1.3 | -2.5 | Large | |
| 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | Medium | |
| 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| -4.2 | -10.0 | -14.7 | Large | |
| -8.1 | -8.7 | -10.4 | Medium | |
| -14.4 | -15.3 | -16.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 4/18/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 39,142.2 | -2.6 | -7.6 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 16,286.4 | -2.6 | -15.5 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,282.7 | -1.5 | -9.8 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,396.2 | 4.3 | 7.0 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 29.7 | 21.0 | 70.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 4.3 | 7.0 |
| Europe | 4.1 | 10.4 |
| France | 2.6 | 8.8 |
| Germany | 4.3 | 17.3 |
| Italy | 6.0 | 17.0 |
| Japan | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| Spain | 5.5 | 27.1 |
| Switzerland | 3.4 | 12.6 |
| U.K. | 5.4 | 8.6 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| Brazil | 2.3 | 11.2 |
| China | 1.5 | 6.1 |
| India | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| Indonesia | 2.6 | -12.8 |
| Korea | 3.8 | 7.5 |
| Mexico | 6.3 | 14.0 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -1.4 | -16.1 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.5 | -9.8 |
| Communication services | -3.2 | -11.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | -2.9 | -19.5 |
| Consumer staples | 2.0 | 6.5 |
| Energy | 3.3 | -3.7 |
| Financials | 0.0 | -3.0 |
| Healthcare | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Industrials | -0.3 | -4.6 |
| Information tech | -3.7 | -18.2 |
| Materials | 0.4 | -2.9 |
| Real estate | 4.0 | 0.2 |
| Utilities | 1.9 | 3.5 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 4/18/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | Medium | |
| 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | High | Credit quality |
| 2.0 | 2.3 | -1.1 | Medium | |
| 1.0 | -0.2 | -2.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 4/18/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.80 | 4.23 | -43 |
| 10 Yr | 4.33 | 4.57 | -24 |
| 30 Yr | 4.80 | 4.79 | 1 |
| 2-10 spread | 53 | 34 | 19 |
| 10-30 spread | 47 | 22 | 25 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Bank loans | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| Convertible | 0.7 | -3.7 |
| Corporate | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| High yield | 1.3 | -0.2 |
| MBS | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Municipal | 1.1 | -1.7 |
| Preferreds | 1.0 | -3.0 |
| TIPS | 1.0 | 2.9 |
| Treasury | 0.8 | 2.4 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.1 | 7.5 |
| EMD USD | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Global Agg | 1.0 | 4.8 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 1.1 | 6.6 |
| Multiverse | 1.0 | 4.7 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 1.5 | 5.5 |
| Oil (WTI) | 5.0 | -7.9 |
| Gold | 2.7 | 25.1 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| AUD | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| CAD | 0.1 | 3.6 |
| CHF | -0.6 | 10.5 |
| EUR | 0.1 | 9.6 |
| GBP | 1.3 | 5.7 |
| JPY | 1.0 | 10.5 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 2.2 | 6.1 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 1.65 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 2.46 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.28 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.57 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -2.1 | 155.4 | 15,191.8 |
| Sector Equity | -13.0 | -25.1 | 1,359.6 |
| Allocation | -8.4 | -80.7 | 1,392.3 |
| International Equity | -3.1 | -15.5 | 4,244.4 |
| Alternative | 0.5 | 44.3 | 272.6 |
| Commodities | 6.8 | 17.6 | 227.5 |
| Taxable Bond | 20.3 | 469.4 | 5,934.4 |
| Municipal Bond | -0.6 | 45.6 | 928.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 10.3 | 634.6 | 29,865.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.5 | 95.9 | 433.5 |
| Large Blend | 9.4 | 244.9 | 8,059.7 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 8.8 | 47.4 | 852.3 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 6.9 | 11.4 | 87.9 |
| Commodities Focused | 6.5 | 16.8 | 182.2 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Government | -9.0 | 10.9 | 276.7 |
| Bank Loan | -5.4 | 7.9 | 105.4 |
| Large Growth | -5.4 | -37.0 | 2,834.8 |
| Moderate Allocation | -5.2 | -36.5 | 782.9 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3.8 | -29.8 | 456.5 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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