Weekly Market Recap

Week ended November 29

Market-moving news

Back on track

On the heels of a slightly negative week, the S&P 500 bounced back to record its seventh positive weekly result out of the past eight. The S&P 500 and the Dow gained around 1% and set new records in the holiday-shortened week; the NASDAQ added nearly 2%.

Homestretch momentum

November marked the fifth positive month out of the past six for the S&P 500, which rose steadily last month. The index posted an overall monthly return of 3.6%, and it entered the final month of 2019 with a year-to-date return of 27.6%.

Small-cap surge

A small-cap index, the Russell 2000, rallied to a 2.2% gain in the latest week, outpacing large-cap indexes and extending a recent run of small-cap outperformance. For the two-month period ended November 29, the Russell 2000 added nearly 7.0%.

Growth picks up

The U.S. economy grew at a slightly faster pace in this year’s third quarter than had initially been estimated. The government revised its initial estimate of a 1.9% annual growth rate in the latest quarter to 2.1%—roughly in line with the second quarter’s figure but down sharply from the first quarter’s 3.1% rate.

Trade watch

Incremental developments in the U.S.-China trade conflict continued to drive global markets during a mostly quiet week of trading. Stocks climbed on Monday after Chinese officials took steps to address U.S. concerns about intellectual property infringement. However, concerns about prospects for a trade deal rekindled after President Trump signed legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong.

Flagging confidence

A measure of U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fourth month in a row. However, analysts cautioned that the latest decline in The Conference Board’s monthly index doesn’t suggest that retail sales are likely to weaken over the holidays, and initial sales data from shopping on Black Friday were positive.

Calm stretch

Investors’ expectations of short-term stock market volatility have eased to levels that are near the low point of the year. A gauge of those expectations, the Cboe Volatility Index, was down 39% on Friday from a recent high in early October and 49% from a volatile stretch in early August.

Bitcoin weakness

The price of bitcoin rose modestly during the latest week to take some of the sting out of a difficult November. On Friday, the cryptocurrency was down about 16% from its price at the end of October and about 40% below its year-to-date high set in late June.

The week ahead: December 2-6

Monday

Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index
Construction spending, U.S. Census Bureau

Tuesday

Vehicle sales, U.S. Department of Commerce

Wednesday

ADP National Employment Report, ADP
Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index

Thursday

Trade balance, U.S. Census Bureau
Factory orders, U.S. Census Bureau

Friday

Jobs and unemployment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary result
Consumer credit, U.S. Federal Reserve
Wholesale inventories, U.S. Census Bureau

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns (%) as of 11/29/19

1 week YTD

1 week
0.6	1.1	1.6	Large
0.8	1.1	1.6	Mid
1.6	2.3	2.9	Small
Value	Core	Growth

YTD
23.2	27.7	32.4	Large
23.3	27.6	33.9	Mid
18.3	22.0	25.6	Small
Value	Core	Growth

Index/market total returns as of 11/29/19 (%)

Close Week YTD

	Close	Week	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	28,051.4	0.7	23.0
NASDAQ Composite Index	8,665.5	1.7	31.9
S&P 500 Index	3,141.0	1.0	27.6
MSCI EAFE Index	1,974.5	0.5	18.8
Cboe Volatility Index	12.6	1.6	-50.4

International/developed (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EAFE	0.5	18.8
Europe	0.7	19.9
France	0.2	23.3
Germany	0.6	19.4
Italy	-0.3	25.3
Japan	-0.2	17.6
Spain	0.7	8.1
Switzerland	0.9	27.9
U.K.	1.2	15.2

Emerging markets (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM	-0.8	10.6
Brazil	-1.8	12.6
China	0.4	14.1
India	1.0	6.0
Indonesia	-2.2	2.4
Korea	-1.3	2.4
Mexico	-2.1	6.7
Russia	-1.5	40.9
Taiwan	-1.0	28.1

S&P 500 sectors (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
S&P 500 Index	1.0	27.6
Communication services	0.8	30.1
Consumer discretionary	1.8	24.5
Consumer staples	1.1	24.7
Energy	-1.5	5.5
Financials	0.7	28.7
Healthcare	1.2	16.6
Industrials	0.4	29.4
Information tech	1.7	43.8
Materials	1.1	20.9
Real estate	1.4	27.3
Utilities	0.0	22.1

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns (%) as of 11/29/19

1 week YTD

1 week
0.0	0.0	0.4	High
0.1	0.1	0.9	Med	QUALITY
0.3	0.4	0.6	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

YTD
3.0	5.2	18.0	High
3.5	6.5	25.1	Med	QUALITY
6.8	12.0	19.9	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/29/19 (%)

END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)

	END OF WEEK	PRIOR YEAR END	YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr	1.60	2.21	-60
10 Yr	1.78	2.39	-61
30 Yr	2.20	2.82	-62
2-10 spread	0.18	0.18	-1
10-30 spread	0.42	0.43	-1

U.S. bond sector total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
Aggregate	0.2	8.8
Bank loans	0.2	7.2
Convertible	1.4	20.1
Corporate	0.2	15.0
High yield	0.4	12.0
MBS	0.1	6.1
Municipal	0.2	7.2
Preferreds	-0.5	14.8
TIPS	-0.1	8.0
Treasury	0.1	7.5

Global bond total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM Local	-0.8	7.8
EMD USD	0.2	12.8
Global Agg	0.0	6.2
Global Agg Ex-U.S.	-0.1	4.7
Multiverse	0.0	6.4

Commodities (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
BBG Com Ind	-2.0	2.5
Oil (WTI)	-4.5	21.1
Gold	0.2	14.0

Currencies (USD) (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM FX	-0.6	1.6
AUD	-0.3	-3.9
CAD	0.0	2.8
CHF	-0.4	-1.4
EUR	-0.1	-3.5
GBP	0.8	1.6
JPY	-0.8	0.2

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

	GDP Growth (%) annualized	Inflation Rate (%) CPI	Unemployment Rate (%)	10-Year Government Bond (%)	Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	1.2	1.0	7.5	_	_
China	6.0	3.8	3.6	3.19	A+
Germany	0.5	1.1	3.1	-0.35	AAA
Japan	1.3	0.2	2.4	-0.08	A+
U.K.	1.0	1.5	3.8	0.70	AA

GDP Growth (%) annualized
Eurozone	1.2
China	6.0
Germany	0.5
Japan	1.3
U.K.	1.0

Inflation Rate (%) CPI
Eurozone	1.0
China	3.8
Germany	1.1
Japan	0.2
U.K.	1.5

Unemployment Rate (%)
Eurozone	7.5
China	3.6
Germany	3.1
Japan	2.4
U.K.	3.8

10-Year Government Bond (%)
Eurozone	_
China	3.19
Germany	-0.35
Japan	-0.08
U.K.	0.70

Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	_
China	A+
Germany	AAA
Japan	A+
U.K.	AA

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs ($B) as of 10/31/19

as tracked by Strategic Insight

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
U.S. equity	-12.3	-38.5	8,602.1
Sector equity	-2.3	-59.3	901.7
Allocation	-3.5	-60.5	1,275.3
International equity	-3.3	-17.3	3,203.5
Alternative	0.5	-19.9	180.6
Commodities	0.2	11.0	108.6
Taxable bond	41.5	276.7	4,261.0
Municipal bond	8.4	81.0	835.6
Total all long-term funds	25.9	139.4	19,381.5

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Intermediate Core Bond	15.0	87.3	950.3
Intermediate Core-Plus Bond	6.0	40.0	700.9
Large Value	5.3	-15.2	1,188.8
Ultrashort Bond	5.3	53.4	262.2
Short-Term Bond	4.7	34.1	434.7

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Large Growth	-9.4	-69.7	1,762.6
Bank Loan	-3.7	-53.4	96.6
Mid-Cap Growth	-2.7	-12.2	349.8
World Large Stock	-2.4	-17.3	406.4
Health	-2.0	-15.5	164.4

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

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Detailed weekly data on equities and fixed income—factors, fundamentals, styles/sizes, sectors/industries/stocks

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