Weekly Market Recap

Week ended June 11

Market-moving news

Mixed results

The major U.S. stock indexes continued to hover near record highs set earlier in the spring, with the S&P 500 breaking its record on Thursday. That index posted a small gain for the third week in a row, as did the NASDAQ, which outperformed its peers; the Dow retreated modestly.

Bond rally

Prices of U.S. government bonds surged, pushing yields down to the lowest levels in more than three months. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 1.50% on Wednesday, and on Friday it slipped as low as 1.45%. As recently as March 31, the yield had been at 1.74%.

Price pressures

An index of U.S. consumer prices rose at a 5.0% annual rate in May, the steepest increase since 2008. The latest monthly inflation spike extends a trend that accelerated earlier this spring, although the increases are being boosted in part by comparisons with relatively low inflation a year ago, when the pandemic depressed prices.

Oil tops $70

U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 1%, climbing for the third week in a row and pushing prices above $70 per barrel for the first time in more than two and a half years. As recently as May 20, oil was trading as low as $62; dwindling supplies and rising demand have pushed prices higher.

Meandering market

A measure of investors’ expectations of short-term stock market volatility fell to its lowest level since the pandemic began. The Cboe Volatility Index on Friday slipped below 16—the lowest since February 2020, before the pandemic triggered a surge in volatility.

Thursday momentum

The major U.S. stock indexes had another mostly quiet week, with the only significant moves coming on Thursday. The S&P 500’s daily gain of 0.5% pushed that index to a record, eclipsing a previous high set five weeks earlier.

Recovery indicators

On Thursday, the latest weekly report showed that new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 376,000, the lowest level recorded since the pandemic hit. On Friday, an index of consumer sentiment rose more than expected as survey participants grew more optimistic about future economic growth and employment.

Fed ahead

Inflation concerns could be top of mind for many U.S. Federal Reserve officials as policymakers hold a two-day meeting scheduled to end on Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged—and at a near-zero level—the recent spike in consumer prices could spur discussion of other steps to tighten monetary policy.

The week ahead: June 14-18

Monday

No major reports scheduled

Tuesday

Retail sales, U.S. Census Bureau;
Business inventories, U.S. Census Bureau
Industrial production and capacity utilization, U.S. Federal Reserve
Housing Market Index, National Association of Home Builders

Wednesday

U.S. Federal Reserve Board concludes two-day policy meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell holds press conference
Housing starts, U.S. Census Bureau
Export and import prices, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Thursday

Weekly unemployment claims, U.S. Department of Labor
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S.

Friday

No major reports scheduled

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 6/11/21 (%)

1 week YTD

1 week
-0.5	0.6	1.8	Large
-0.1	0.8	2.7	Mid
1.0	2.2	3.5	Small
Value	Core	Growth

YTD
18.7	13.5	8.6	Large
21.7	16.0	6.0	Mid
31.1	18.7	7.3	Small
Value	Core	Growth

Index/market total returns as of 6/11/21 (%)

Close Week YTD

	Close	Week	YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average	34,479.6	-0.8	13.6
NASDAQ Composite Index	14,069.4	1.9	9.5
S&P 500 Index	4,247.4	0.4	13.8
MSCI EAFE Index	2,365.6	0.3	11.9
Cboe Volatility Index	15.7	-4.3	-31.1

International/developed (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EAFE	0.3	11.9
Europe	0.8	15.7
France	1.1	18.3
Germany	-0.1	13.0
Italy	0.0	15.2
Japan	-0.6	2.8
Spain	1.0	12.7
Switzerland	2.1	12.3
U.K.	0.5	16.4

Emerging markets (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM	0.1	7.9
Brazil	-1.5	10.3
China	-0.6	0.5
India	1.2	15.6
Indonesia	0.5	-3.8
Korea	0.6	6.5
Mexico	2.2	17.1
Russia	2.1	21.5
Taiwan	0.9	18.5

S&P 500 sectors (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
S&P 500 Index	0.4	13.8
Communication services	0.8	18.1
Consumer discretionary	1.6	6.9
Consumer staples	-0.7	5.6
Energy	-0.5	47.8
Financials	-2.4	28.1
Healthcare	1.9	10.1
Industrials	-1.7	17.2
Information tech	1.4	9.1
Materials	-2.0	19.3
Real estate	2.0	25.6
Utilities	1.2	6.3

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 6/11/21 (%)

1 week YTD

1 week
0.0	0.2	1.6	High
0.0	0.2	1.8	Med	QUALITY
0.3	0.5	1.1	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

YTD
0.1	-0.8	-9.0	High
0.0	-0.7	-2.4	Med	QUALITY
4.0	3.1	2.9	Low
Ltd	Int	Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY

U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 6/11/21 (%)

END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)

	END OF WEEK	PRIOR YEAR END	YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr	0.15	0.12	+3
10 Yr	1.46	0.92	+54
30 Yr	2.15	1.65	+50
2-10 spread	1.31	0.80	+51
10-30 spread	0.69	0.73	-4

U.S. bond sector total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
Aggregate	0.5	-1.7
Bank loans	0.1	1.7
Convertible	1.3	4.4
Corporate	0.9	-1.8
High yield	0.5	3.1
MBS	0.1	-0.6
Municipal	0.5	1.5
Preferreds	0.3	0.0
TIPS	0.1	1.4
Treasury	0.5	-2.6

Global bond total returns (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM Local	-0.1	-0.6
EMD USD	1.0	-0.1
Global Agg	0.3	-2.2
Global Agg Ex-U.S.	0.2	-2.5
Multiverse	0.3	-2.0

Commodities (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
BBG Com Ind	0.3	21.7
Oil (WTI)	1.5	46.4
Gold	-0.7	-1.3

Currencies (USD) (%)

1 week YTD

	1 week	YTD
EM FX	0.4	0.3
AUD	-0.4	-0.2
CAD	-0.5	4.9
CHF	0.1	-1.6
EUR	-0.4	-1.0
GBP	-0.3	3.3
JPY	-0.2	-5.9

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

	GDP Growth (%) annualized	Inflation Rate (%) CPI	Unemployment Rate (%)	10-Year Government Bond (%)	Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	-1.3	2	8	_	_
China	18.3	1.3	5.1	3.17	A+
Germany	-3.1	2.5	4.4	-0.27	AAA
Japan	-1.4	-0.4	2.8	0.04	A+
U.K.	-6.1	1.5	4.8	0.70	AA

GDP Growth (%) annualized
Eurozone	-1.3
China	18.3
Germany	-3.1
Japan	-1.4
U.K.	-6.1

Inflation Rate (%) CPI
Eurozone	2
China	1.3
Germany	2.5
Japan	-0.4
U.K.	1.5

Unemployment Rate (%)
Eurozone	8
China	5.1
Germany	4.4
Japan	2.8
U.K.	4.8

10-Year Government Bond (%)
Eurozone	_
China	3.17
Germany	-0.27
Japan	0.04
U.K.	0.70

Sovereign Credit Rating
Eurozone	_
China	A+
Germany	AAA
Japan	A+
U.K.	AA

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 5/31/21 ($B)

as tracked by ISS Market Intelligence SIMFUND

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
U.S. Equity	4.7	-106.6	11,984.9
Sector Equity	4.4	108.7	1,314.3
Allocation	-2.1	-37.1	1,462.2
International Equity	23.1	86.3	4,178.9
Alternative	2.6	16.2	117.9
Commodities	6.4	17.7	181.9
Taxable Bond	37.7	791.1	5,260.4
Municipal Bond	6.7	121.3	1002.5
Total all long-term funds	86.0	942.9	25,616.2

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/21 ($B)

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Large Value	12.2	26.2	1,587.7
Intermediate Core Bond	7.7	223.3	1,238.3
Foreign Large Blend	7.1	0.6	1,390.1
Inflation-Protected Bond	7.1	62.2	242.0
Short-Term Bond	6.7	119.6	562.7

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/21 ($B)

	MONTH	12 Month	ASSETS
Large Growth	-9.8	-90.5	2,466.4
Technology	-5.7	16.8	307.0
Mid-Cap Growth	-3.6	0.4	652.0
High Yield Bond	-3.4	22.9	375.4
Small Growth	-1.9	1.0	330.0

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (bps). One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global GDP, and over 75% of global trade.

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