Weekly Market Recap
Week ended October 30
Market-moving news
Negative shift
Three modestly positive days to start the week gave way to selling pressure on Thursday and Friday, with big technology stocks again pulling the broader market lower. At Friday’s close, the NASDAQ was down 2.9% for the day and 2.0% for the week. The S&P 500 and the Dow both fell nearly 1% for the week.
Earnings upgrade
With earnings season more than halfway over, full-season expectations rose modestly even as big technology companies reported mixed results. As of Friday, analysts projected that third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 rose 30.2%, up from a forecast of 29.5% the previous week, according to FactSet. Such an outcome would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%.
Fed on hold
In a 10-2 board vote, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged, opting to hold steady following a September vote in which the Fed lifted the rate for the first time since 2023. As for the next policy meeting, Friday’s trading in rate futures markets implied a roughly 73% probability that the Fed will approve another quarter-point rate hike on December 9, versus a 27% probability of keeping rates unchanged, according to CME FedWatch.
Bonds stabilize
The recent bond market sell-off continued to reverse modestly, as the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury remained below 5.00% after briefly slipping below that threshold the previous week. As of Friday afternoon, the 10-year yield was around 4.91%; the 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.57%, the lowest in more than a month and a half.
October’s mixed results
For the second month in a row, the U.S. stock market saw widely varied performance across the major indexes. Negative October results for many technology stocks and growth equities weighed on the NASDAQ, which fell 5.3% for the month. The S&P 500 was down 0.9%, while the Dow outperformed, rising 1.7, owing in part to strong results from value stocks.
Persistent inflation
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation showed a further rise in prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose at an annual rate of 3.6% in September, up from a 3.4% rate the previous month. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core PCE rose 3.1%, above a 3.0% reading in August, and well above the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target.
GDP momentum
The U.S. government’s initial estimate of third-quarter GDP delivered a positive surprise, with growth estimated at an annual rate of 3.4% versus economists’ consensus estimate of 3.1%. The growth figure also marked an increase from the second quarter’s 2.2% GDP number.
Jobs ahead
A monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether September’s sluggish jobs growth extended into October. September’s report showed a monthly gain of 29,000 jobs—well below consensus expectations—and initial estimates for the previous two months were adjusted downward by a combined 60,000 jobs. September’s unemployment rate was 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August.
The week ahead: November 2-6
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 10/30/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.5 | -0.5 | -1.7 | Large | |
| 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.8 | Medium | |
| 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 24.5 | 11.5 | -0.2 | Large | |
| 22.0 | 15.4 | -3.4 | Medium | |
| 19.9 | 14.4 | 9.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 10/30/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,770.3 | -0.8 | 9.1 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 25,437.0 | -2.0 | 10.2 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,580.1 | -0.6 | 11.8 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,100.6 | 0.9 | 10.0 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 19.4 | -0.5 | 29.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.9 | 10.0 |
| Europe | 1.3 | 7.0 |
| France | 2.0 | -3.8 |
| Germany | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Italy | 1.5 | 6.0 |
| Japan | -0.3 | 17.9 |
| Spain | -2.7 | 6.0 |
| Switzerland | 2.5 | 10.8 |
| U.K. | 0.4 | 10.8 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.7 | 13.8 |
| Brazil | -22.5 | 4.5 |
| China | -0.4 | -17.9 |
| India | 2.2 | -13.7 |
| Indonesia | -4.9 | -47.6 |
| Korea | 3.9 | 67.4 |
| Mexico | -0.9 | 10.4 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -1.5 | 56.4 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| S&P 500 Index | -0.6 | 11.8 |
| Communication services | -8.5 | -11.3 |
| Consumer discretionary | 1.0 | -2.1 |
| Consumer staples | 1.6 | 18.3 |
| Energy | 1.0 | 59.9 |
| Financials | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| Healthcare | 3.1 | 21.0 |
| Industrials | 1.7 | 8.9 |
| Information tech | -1.8 | 19.6 |
| Materials | 2.0 | 16.0 |
| Real estate | 1.4 | 14.0 |
| Utilities | 2.0 | 3.9 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 10/30/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 2.3 | 0.2 | -2.9 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.5 | 0.0 | -2.9 | Medium | |
| 1.6 | 0.3 | -8.0 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 10/30/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.57 | 3.48 | 109 |
| 10 Yr | 4.91 | 4.16 | 75 |
| 30 Yr | 5.29 | 4.84 | 45 |
| 2-10 spread | 34 | 68 | -34 |
| 10-30 spread | 38 | 68 | -30 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.6 | -0.5 |
| Bank loans | 0.5 | 2.8 |
| Convertible | -0.1 | 7.3 |
| Corporate | 0.6 | -1.7 |
| High yield | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| MBS | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| Municipal | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| Preferreds | -1.0 | -8.3 |
| TIPS | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Treasury | 0.5 | -0.5 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -1.2 | 1.2 |
| EMD USD | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Global Agg | 0.3 | -1.3 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.1 | -1.7 |
| Multiverse | 0.2 | -1.2 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -1.7 | 32.8 |
| Oil (WTI) | 1.3 | 128.3 |
| Gold | -2.6 | -10.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.1 | 5.5 |
| CAD | 0.2 | -1.8 |
| CHF | 0.2 | -3.7 |
| EUR | -0.4 | -5.0 |
| GBP | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| JPY | -0.5 | -0.5 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries (as of 10/30/26)
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.3 | 3.8 | 6.5 | _ |
| China | 4.5 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 1.66 |
| Germany | 1.2 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 3.32 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.77 |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.29 |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 9/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -45.2 | 17.0 | 20,037.3 |
| Taxable Bond | 35.5 | 763.3 | 6,923.1 |
| International Equity | 1.3 | 122.9 | 6,025.2 |
| Sector Equity | 1.7 | 127.9 | 2,088.9 |
| Allocation | -2.8 | -59.3 | 1,598.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 3.0 | 102.7 | 1,038.8 |
| Nontraditional Equity | 6.4 | 61.0 | 390.7 |
| Commodities | 3.9 | 24.6 | 373.1 |
| Miscellaneous | 3.7 | -5.4 | 345.6 |
| Alternative | 6.0 | 37.4 | 172.5 |
| N/A | -0.3 | -24.7 | 65.1 |
| Total all long-term funds | 13.2 | 1,167.4 | 39,059.0 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 9/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultrashort Bond | 21.6 | 137.5 | 597.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 10.7 | 109.2 | 2,557.2 |
| Muni National Interm | 5.8 | 58.4 | 415.0 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 5.0 | 160.5 | 1,667.4 |
| Long Government | 4.9 | 21.1 | 185.9 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 9/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | -17.5 | 267.2 | 10,805.7 |
| Large Growth | -15.9 | -103.2 | 3,921.7 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -6.2 | -54.6 | 501.2 |
| Corporate Bond | -4.7 | 27.9 | 256.4 |
| Small Growth | -4.7 | -24.8 | 256.1 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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