Weekly Market Recap
Week ended January 23
Market-moving news
Slight pullback
For the second week in a row, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ posted fractional declines. The former two indexes ended up less than 1% below the record highs they set on January 12, while the NASDAQ was about 2% shy of its historic peak set nearly three months ago.
Geopolitical tensions
The stock market’s relatively modest overall setback for the week didn’t come without drama, as U.S. indexes tumbled around 2% on Tuesday before staging a rebound rally the following day. International tensions over Greenland and the related prospect of tariffs were the key catalysts.
Metals dazzle
Precious metals prices surged again, extending rallies that have lifted gold and silver well above their previous record levels. Gold was trading around $4,980 per ounce on Friday afternoon, while silver surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time, just a couple of weeks after it first breached the $80 threshold.
Sticky inflation
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation remained modestly elevated in late 2025. Core inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index was 2.8% in November—above the Fed’s long-term 2.0% target. Numbers for both October and November were released together on Thursday because agencies are still catching up following the recent government shutdown.
U.S. GDP upgrade
The U.S. economy’s rapid growth in the third quarter of last year was slightly more robust than initially estimated. The government’s updated figure put the quarter’s annual GDP growth rate at 4.4%, up from a previous estimate of 4.3%. The result was up from a 3.8% rate in the second quarter and marked the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2023.
China's GDP
China’s economy met the government’s full-year target for 5.0% growth in 2025, but the rate of expansion slowed in the fourth quarter. From October through December, the world’s second-largest economy recorded a 4.5% annual GDP rate, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and the lowest reading since early 2023.
Earnings update
Expectations rose slightly as a second week’s batch of quarterly results came in. As of Friday, analysts projected that earnings for S&P 500 companies rose 8.2% in the fourth quarter versus an 8.0% estimate after the opening week of earnings season, according to FactSet. The figures are based on companies that have already reported plus projections for those that haven’t yet released results.
Fed pause ahead?
Bond market trading ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting continued to support expectations of a pause in the recent string of interest rate cuts. Friday's trading in rate futures markets implied a 97% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged, according to CME FedWatch. The Fed has cut rates at each of its three most recent meetings, and its next two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday.
The week ahead: January26-30
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 1/23/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | Large | |
| -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.2 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.7 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 3.9 | 1.3 | -1.0 | Large | |
| 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | Medium | |
| 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 1/23/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 49,098.7 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 23,501.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,915.6 | -0.3 | 1.1 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,996.0 | 0.1 | 3.6 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.1 | 1.3 | 7.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.1 | 3.6 |
| Europe | 0.3 | 2.8 |
| France | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Germany | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| Italy | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| Japan | -1.0 | 5.6 |
| Spain | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Switzerland | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| U.K. | 0.4 | 3.0 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 1.1 | 6.9 |
| Brazil | 10.3 | 14.6 |
| China | -0.5 | 3.9 |
| India | -4.1 | -6.3 |
| Indonesia | -2.7 | -1.4 |
| Korea | 3.4 | 18.6 |
| Mexico | 2.5 | 9.6 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 1.8 | 10.8 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.3 | 1.1 |
| Communication services | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.7 | 3.2 |
| Consumer staples | 1.0 | 6.8 |
| Energy | 3.1 | 10.1 |
| Financials | -2.5 | -3.1 |
| Healthcare | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Industrials | -1.6 | 5.9 |
| Information tech | -0.8 | -1.3 |
| Materials | 2.6 | 10.0 |
| Real estate | -2.5 | 2.1 |
| Utilities | -2.0 | -0.3 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 1/23/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | Medium | |
| 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 1/23/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.60 | 3.48 | 12 |
| 10 Yr | 4.23 | 4.16 | 7 |
| 30 Yr | 4.83 | 4.84 | -1 |
| 2-10 spread | 63 | 68 | -5 |
| 10-30 spread | 60 | 68 | -8 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Bank loans | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Convertible | 0.2 | 5.8 |
| Corporate | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| High yield | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| MBS | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Municipal | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Preferreds | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| TIPS | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Treasury | 0.1 | -0.1 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| EMD USD | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Global Agg | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Multiverse | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 5.3 | 9.3 |
| Oil (WTI) | 3.0 | 7.0 |
| Gold | 8.4 | 15.0 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| CAD | 1.3 | -0.2 |
| CHF | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| EUR | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| GBP | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| JPY | 0.0 | -0.9 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.4 | 1.9 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.5 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 1.83 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.3 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 2.90 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.26 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4.53 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 12/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 24.2 | -30.7 | 17,958.4 |
| Sector Equity | 4.8 | 8.4 | 1,676.4 |
| Allocation | -7.0 | -63.2 | 1,546.1 |
| International Equity | -4.0 | 43.4 | 5,262.4 |
| Alternative | 0.4 | 14.3 | 126.9 |
| Commodities | 8.1 | 54.8 | 360.9 |
| Taxable Bond | 53.5 | 538.3 | 6,527.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 6.8 | 61.2 | 1,002.5 |
| Total all long-term funds | 76.9 | 674.1 | 35,146.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 12/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 43.1 | 190.8 | 9,463.7 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 12.7 | 104.7 | 1,607.8 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 12.3 | 80.8 | 2,218.4 |
| Commodities Focused | 8.5 | 51.6 | 312.1 |
| Multisector Bond | 8.1 | 77.5 | 439.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 12/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Large Growth | -8.2 | -48.2 | 501.8 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -5.1 | -36.4 | 367.3 |
| Large Growth | -4.8 | -60.0 | 3,598.7 |
| Large Value | -4.7 | -24.5 | 2,271.5 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.4 | -38.9 | 839.8 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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