Weekly Market Recap

Week ended November 29

Market-moving news

Market-moving news

Market-moving news
Back on track

On the heels of a slightly negative week, the S&P 500 bounced back to record its seventh positive weekly result out of the past eight. The S&P 500 and the Dow gained around 1% and set new records in the holiday-shortened week; the NASDAQ added nearly 2%. 

Market-moving news
Homestretch momentum

November marked the fifth positive month out of the past six for the S&P 500, which rose steadily last month. The index posted an overall monthly return of 3.6%, and it entered the final month of 2019 with a year-to-date return of  27.6%.

Market-moving news
Small-cap surge

A small-cap index, the Russell 2000, rallied to a 2.2% gain in the latest week, outpacing large-cap indexes and extending a recent run of small-cap outperformance. For the two-month period ended November 29, the Russell 2000 added nearly 7.0%.

Market-moving news
Growth picks up

The U.S. economy grew at a slightly faster pace in this year’s third quarter than had initially been estimated. The government revised its initial estimate of a 1.9% annual growth rate in the latest quarter to 2.1%—roughly in line with the second quarter’s figure but down sharply from the first quarter’s 3.1% rate.  

Market-moving news
Trade watch

Incremental developments in the U.S.-China trade conflict continued to drive global markets during a mostly quiet week of trading. Stocks climbed on Monday after Chinese officials took steps to address U.S. concerns about intellectual property infringement. However, concerns about prospects for a trade deal rekindled after President Trump signed legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong.

Market-moving news
Flagging confidence

A measure of U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fourth month in a row. However, analysts cautioned that the latest decline in The Conference Board’s monthly index doesn’t suggest that retail sales are likely to weaken over the holidays, and initial sales data from shopping on Black Friday were positive. 

Market-moving news
Calm stretch

Investors’ expectations of short-term stock market volatility have eased to levels that are near the low point of the year. A gauge of those expectations, the Cboe Volatility Index, was down 39% on Friday from a recent high in early October and 49% from a volatile stretch in early August. 

Market-moving news
Bitcoin weakness

The price of bitcoin rose modestly during the latest week to take some of the sting out of a difficult November. On Friday, the cryptocurrency was down about 16% from its price at the end of October and about 40% below its year-to-date high set in late June.  

The week ahead: December 2-6

Monday 

  • Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index
  • Construction spending, U.S. Census Bureau

 

Tuesday

  • Vehicle sales, U.S. Department of Commerce 

Wednesday

  • ADP National Employment Report, ADP
  • Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index  

Thursday

  • Trade balance, U.S. Census Bureau  
  • Factory orders, U.S. Census Bureau

Friday

  • Jobs and unemployment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, preliminary result
  • Consumer credit, U.S. Federal Reserve
  • Wholesale inventories, U.S. Census Bureau

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS).  One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

 

Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns (%) as of 11/29/19
1 week
0.61.11.6 Large
0.81.11.6 Mid
1.62.32.9 Small
Value Core Growth
YTD
23.227.732.4 Large
23.327.633.9 Mid
18.322.025.6 Small
Value Core Growth
Index/market total returns as of 11/29/19 (%)
Close Week YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average 28,051.4 0.7 23.0
NASDAQ Composite Index 8,665.5 1.7 31.9
S&P 500 Index 3,141.0 1.0 27.6
MSCI EAFE Index 1,974.5 0.5 18.8
Cboe Volatility Index 12.6 1.6 -50.4
International/developed (%)
1 week YTD
EAFE 0.5 18.8
Europe 0.7 19.9
France 0.2 23.3
Germany 0.6 19.4
Italy -0.3 25.3
Japan -0.2 17.6
Spain 0.7 8.1
Switzerland 0.9 27.9
U.K. 1.2 15.2
Emerging markets (%)
1 week YTD
EM -0.8 10.6
Brazil -1.8 12.6
China 0.4 14.1
India 1.0 6.0
Indonesia -2.2 2.4
Korea -1.3 2.4
Mexico -2.1 6.7
Russia -1.5 40.9
Taiwan -1.0 28.1
S&P 500 sectors (%)
1 week YTD
S&P 500 Index 1.0 27.6
Communication services 0.8 30.1
Consumer discretionary 1.8 24.5
Consumer staples 1.1 24.7
Energy -1.5 5.5
Financials 0.7 28.7
Healthcare 1.2 16.6
Industrials 0.4 29.4
Information tech 1.7 43.8
Materials 1.1 20.9
Real estate 1.4 27.3
Utilities 0.0 22.1

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns (%) as of 11/29/19
1 week
0.00.00.4 High
0.10.10.9 Med QUALITY
0.30.40.6 Low
Ltd Int Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY
YTD
3.05.218.0 High
3.56.525.1 Med QUALITY
6.812.019.9 Low
Ltd Int Long
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/29/19 (%)
END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr 1.60 2.21 -60
10 Yr 1.78 2.39 -61
30 Yr 2.20 2.82 -62
2-10 spread 0.18 0.18 -1
10-30 spread 0.42 0.43 -1
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
1 week YTD
Aggregate 0.2 8.8
Bank loans 0.2 7.2
Convertible 1.4 20.1
Corporate 0.2 15.0
High yield 0.4 12.0
MBS 0.1 6.1
Municipal 0.2 7.2
Preferreds -0.5 14.8
TIPS -0.1 8.0
Treasury 0.1 7.5
Global bond total returns (%)
1 week YTD
EM Local -0.8 7.8
EMD USD 0.2 12.8
Global Agg 0.0 6.2
Global Agg Ex-U.S. -0.1 4.7
Multiverse 0.0 6.4
Commodities (%)
1 week YTD
BBG Com Ind -2.0 2.5
Oil (WTI) -4.5 21.1
Gold 0.2 14.0
Currencies (USD) (%)
1 week YTD
EM FX -0.6 1.6
AUD -0.3 -3.9
CAD 0.0 2.8
CHF -0.4 -1.4
EUR -0.1 -3.5
GBP 0.8 1.6
JPY -0.8 0.2

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs ($B) as of 10/31/19

as tracked by Strategic Insight
MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
U.S. equity -12.3 -38.5 8,602.1
Sector equity -2.3 -59.3 901.7
Allocation -3.5 -60.5 1,275.3
International equity -3.3 -17.3 3,203.5
Alternative 0.5 -19.9 180.6
Commodities 0.2 11.0 108.6
Taxable bond 41.5 276.7 4,261.0
Municipal bond 8.4 81.0 835.6
Total all long-term funds 25.9 139.4 19,381.5

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Intermediate Core Bond 15.0 87.3 950.3
Intermediate Core-Plus Bond 6.0 40.0 700.9
Large Value 5.3 -15.2 1,188.8
Ultrashort Bond 5.3 53.4 262.2
Short-Term Bond 4.7 34.1 434.7

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 10/31/19

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Large Growth -9.4 -69.7 1,762.6
Bank Loan -3.7 -53.4 96.6
Mid-Cap Growth -2.7 -12.2 349.8
World Large Stock -2.4 -17.3 406.4
Health -2.0 -15.5 164.4

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS).  One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

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