Weekly Market Recap
Week ended September 4
Market-moving news
Late summer doldrums
The major U.S. stock indexes traded in a narrow range for the fourth week in a row, with the NASDAQ up 0.4% for the week, the Dow down 0.2%, and the S&P 500 essentially flat. The market hasn’t seen any big moves since a four-day rally that began on July 30.
Jobs comeback
The U.S. labor market’s summer slowdown reversed course in August. Friday’s monthly labor market report showed a monthly gain of 162,000 jobs, marking a sharp turnaround from July’s upwardly adjusted figure of 21,000 jobs added. The August gain was roughly triple the number of jobs most economists had forecast, and the largest in five months. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
Rate outlook
Following Friday’s better-than-expected jobs report, bond trading reflected rising expectations for a potential interest rate hike at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that concludes on September 16. Trading in rate futures markets implied a roughly 58% probability that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, versus a 42% probability that the rate would stay unchanged, according to CME FedWatch. The day before the jobs report, prospects for a September rate increase were roughly 50%-50%.
Yield pressures
Yields of U.S. 2- and 10-year Treasuries climbed to year-to-date highs of 4.39% and 4.80%, respectively, on Tuesday before pulling back slightly later in the week. At the longer end of the yield curve, the 30-year note closed at 5.24% on Friday, just below a recent peak of 5.31% and near the highest level in two decades.
Oil rally
Oil prices rose to the highest level in about six weeks, driven largely by developments in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday afternoon, U.S. crude was trading above $91 per barrel, up from $83 a week earlier. Even with the latest rise, oil prices remained well below their year-to-date peak levels in early April, when crude briefly traded above $112.
Bitcoin rises
The most widely traded cryptocurrency extended a rally that began in mid-August. Bitcoin briefly traded above $81,000 on Thursday, reaching its highest level since mid-May. It retreated modestly on Friday afternoon to roughly $80,000, up about 3% for the week.
August’s solid gains
The S&P 500 posted its fourth monthly gain out of the past five months, adding about 2.6% in August. The NASDAQ outperformed, rising 3.9%, while the Dow gained 1.3%.
CPI report ahead
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Friday will provide one of the last major data points for the U.S. Federal Reserve ahead of its two-day policy meeting ending on September 16. The most recent CPI report released in August showed inflation at a 3.4% annual rate in July, slightly below June’s 3.5% figure.
The week ahead: September 7-11
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 9/4/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | Large | |
| -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.8 | Medium | |
| 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.4 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 23.5 | 13.5 | 4.7 | Large | |
| 21.7 | 16.9 | 2.4 | Medium | |
| 24.9 | 20.8 | 17.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 9/4/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,414.3 | -0.2 | 12.4 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 26,507.0 | 0.4 | 14.5 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,718.6 | 0.1 | 13.7 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,239.2 | -0.2 | 14.5 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 14.5 | 0.7 | -3.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -0.2 | 14.5 |
| Europe | -0.8 | 11.5 |
| France | -1.5 | 3.6 |
| Germany | -2.0 | 5.7 |
| Italy | -1.2 | 16.2 |
| Japan | 1.5 | 22.4 |
| Spain | 0.2 | 18.7 |
| Switzerland | -0.7 | 8.8 |
| U.K. | -0.2 | 12.6 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.3 | 24.9 |
| Brazil | 7.0 | 21.3 |
| China | -0.8 | -8.2 |
| India | -0.3 | -8.7 |
| Indonesia | -0.6 | -32.1 |
| Korea | 0.4 | 91.3 |
| Mexico | 0.1 | 13.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 0.5 | 66.2 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 0.1 | 13.7 |
| Communication services | -0.4 | 1.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | -2.0 | -1.3 |
| Consumer staples | -0.8 | 9.0 |
| Energy | 2.3 | 44.5 |
| Financials | 0.0 | 7.1 |
| Healthcare | 0.2 | 11.8 |
| Industrials | -1.0 | 13.7 |
| Information tech | 1.1 | 23.9 |
| Materials | -1.4 | 16.0 |
| Real estate | -1.1 | 14.5 |
| Utilities | 0.8 | 2.3 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 9/4/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.5 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.8 | 0.0 | -2.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.1 | 0.1 | -1.7 | Medium | |
| 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 9/4/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.37 | 3.48 | 89 |
| 10 Yr | 4.78 | 4.16 | 62 |
| 30 Yr | 5.24 | 4.84 | 40 |
| 2-10 spread | 41 | 68 | -23 |
| 10-30 spread | 46 | 68 | -22 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Bank loans | 0.3 | 2.6 |
| Convertible | 0.6 | 16.9 |
| Corporate | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| High yield | -0.2 | 2.5 |
| MBS | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Municipal | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| Preferreds | -0.7 | -3.7 |
| TIPS | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Treasury | -0.1 | -0.6 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.5 | 5.1 |
| EMD USD | -0.2 | 2.7 |
| Global Agg | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Multiverse | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 2.0 | 33.5 |
| Oil (WTI) | 8.3 | 93.0 |
| Gold | -1.1 | 1.9 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.2 | 8.0 |
| CAD | 0.3 | -1.0 |
| CHF | -0.4 | -2.2 |
| EUR | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| GBP | -0.4 | 0.5 |
| JPY | 2.4 | 0.4 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.0 | 3.3 | 6.4 | _ |
| China | 4.3 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 1.68 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 3.34 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.91 |
| U.K. | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 5.13 |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 25.0 | 45.2 | 19,843.1 |
| Taxable Bond | 58.0 | 780.6 | 6,954.9 |
| International Equity | 10.7 | 122.2 | 6,001.0 |
| Sector Equity | 24.6 | 147.4 | 2,044.9 |
| Allocation | -5.6 | -58.8 | 1,624.4 |
| Municipal Bond | 7.9 | 106.7 | 1,072.5 |
| Nontraditional Equity | 8.4 | 56.5 | 372.7 |
| Commodities | 1.9 | 26.0 | 344.7 |
| Miscellaneous | 6.7 | -14.4 | 273.9 |
| Alternative | 3.3 | 31.4 | 158.9 |
| N/A | -0.7 | -34.3 | 54.2 |
| Total all long-term funds | 108.0 | 1,208.4 | 38,745.2 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 37.8 | 295.1 | 10,632.1 |
| Technology | 19.1 | 92.5 | 822.0 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.9 | 115.1 | 560.4 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 10.1 | 168.2 | 1,689.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 7.9 | 111.8 | 2,554.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -19.6 | -108.2 | 3,717.0 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -19.3 | -54.5 | 512.1 |
| Large Value | -6.2 | -289.4 | 2,569.2 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -5.0 | -48.1 | 341.4 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.0 | -44.9 | 866.6 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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