Weekly Market Recap
Week ended October 3
Market-moving news
Baby steps
The three major U.S. stock indexes climbed more than 1% for the week, rebounding from the previous week’s slight pullback. The S&P 500 posted fractional gains of 0.4% or less each day of the trading week, slowly pushing its record level higher.
In the dark
A U.S. government shutdown began on Wednesday after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement to extend funding. Among the functions that ground to a halt were the collection and release of data that investors and U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers rely on to assess the economy. The most prominent report that wasn’t issued was Friday’s monthly jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Filling the gap
The interrupted flow of economic data resulting from the government shutdown left investors turning to alternative, less comprehensive sources of data from private providers. For example, payroll processor ADP on Wednesday estimated that U.S. private sector jobs declined by 32,000 in September, extending a recent run of weak jobs numbers reported by both government and private sources.
September snapshot
The U.S. stock market closed out the third quarter with another monthly gain in September. The S&P 500 added 3.5% for the month; on a quarterly basis, the index gained 7.8%. As for other major indexes, the NASDAQ outperformed in September, climbing 5.6%, while the Dow added 1.9%.
Alternatives rally
The price of Bitcoin rose sharply amid the opening days of the U.S. government shutdow and gold climbed for the seventh consecutive week. As of Friday afternoon, Bitcoin was trading above $122,000—the highest level since a mid-August peak and up about 11% for the week. Gold futures were trading at a record high of more than $3,900 per ounce, up nearly 3%.
Oil slick
Concerns about potential global oversupply drove the price of U.S. crude oil down to the lowest level in more than four months. Oil was trading around $61 per barrel on Friday afternoon, down 7% for the week. As recently as mid-June, oil was trading around $75.
Volatility uptick
Amid a government shutdown, a gauge that tracks expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility rose modestly from its recent subdued levels. The Cboe Volatility Index closed on Friday around 16.7, up from a reading of 15.3 at the end of the previous week. Despite that rise, the so-called VIX remained far below its year-to-date closing high of 52.3 reached on April 8.
Earnings outlook
Growth expectations are high as major U.S. banks prepare to kick off earnings season in mid-October. As of Friday, analysts were expecting companies in the S&P 500 to report third-quarter earnings growth averaging around 8.0%, according to FactSet. Such an outcome would mark the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.
The week ahead: October 6-10*
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 10/3/25 (%)
1 week
| 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Large | |
| 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | Medium | |
| 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 12.4 | 15.1 | 17.6 | Large | |
| 10.4 | 11.2 | 13.2 | Medium | |
| 10.8 | 12.2 | 13.5 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 10/3/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 46,758.3 | 1.1 | 11.3 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 22,780.5 | 1.3 | 18.6 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,715.8 | 1.1 | 15.3 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,810.4 | 2.7 | 27.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.7 | 7.7 | -4.0 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 2.7 | 27.7 |
| Europe | 3.3 | 31.0 |
| France | 3.1 | 27.9 |
| Germany | 3.0 | 36.2 |
| Italy | 1.8 | 49.6 |
| Japan | 0.9 | 21.4 |
| Spain | 1.5 | 62.6 |
| Switzerland | 4.8 | 26.4 |
| U.K. | 2.8 | 28.5 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 3.7 | 30.9 |
| Brazil | -1.5 | 37.0 |
| China | 4.1 | 43.3 |
| India | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Indonesia | -1.3 | -6.7 |
| Korea | 7.0 | 65.0 |
| Mexico | -0.2 | 46.4 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 6.3 | 33.4 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.1 | 15.3 |
| Communication services | -2.1 | 23.1 |
| Consumer discretionary | -0.8 | 4.4 |
| Consumer staples | -0.3 | 3.2 |
| Energy | -3.3 | 6.6 |
| Financials | -0.2 | 12.4 |
| Healthcare | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Industrials | 1.2 | 18.5 |
| Information tech | 2.3 | 23.4 |
| Materials | 1.1 | 9.4 |
| Real estate | 0.5 | 5.1 |
| Utilities | 2.4 | 19.9 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 10/3/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 3.5 | 5.4 | 5.9 | High | Credit quality |
| 4.1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | Medium | |
| 6.4 | 7.2 | 14.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 10/3/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.58 | 4.23 | -65 |
| 10 Yr | 4.12 | 4.57 | -45 |
| 30 Yr | 4.71 | 4.79 | -8 |
| 2-10 spread | 54 | 34 | 20 |
| 10-30 spread | 59 | 22 | 37 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.5 | 6.4 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 4.9 |
| Convertible | 2.7 | 19.9 |
| Corporate | 0.6 | 8.7 |
| High yield | 0.2 | 7.2 |
| MBS | 0.5 | 7.1 |
| Municipal | 0.3 | 2.9 |
| Preferreds | 0.0 | 6.5 |
| TIPS | 0.2 | 6.9 |
| Treasury | 0.4 | 5.5 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.5 | 19.2 |
| EMD USD | 0.5 | 11.2 |
| Global Agg | 0.6 | 8.0 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.7 | 9.1 |
| Multiverse | 0.6 | 8.2 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 0.3 | 10.2 |
| Oil (WTI) | -7.3 | -4.6 |
| Gold | 2.7 | 46.2 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.9 | 6.7 |
| CAD | -0.1 | 3.1 |
| CHF | 0.4 | 14.0 |
| EUR | 0.4 | 13.4 |
| GBP | 0.5 | 7.6 |
| JPY | 1.4 | 6.6 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.5 | 2.2 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.2 | -0.4 | 5.3 | 1.88 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.2 | 2.4 | 6.3 | 2.70 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.66 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.70 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 8/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -14.1 | 59.0 | 17,129.1 |
| Sector Equity | 3.2 | -23.0 | 1,544.7 |
| Allocation | -3.6 | -66.6 | 1,505.1 |
| International Equity | 2.3 | 16.7 | 4,925.4 |
| Alternative | 6.0 | 65.3 | 293.2 |
| Commodities | 3.9 | 30.6 | 261.6 |
| Taxable Bond | 64.7 | 472.5 | 6,227.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 6.9 | 50.3 | 948.0 |
| Total all long-term funds | 68.3 | 634.9 | 33,281.1 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 12.8 | 108.8 | 1,550.4 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 10.9 | 112.3 | 477.7 |
| Multisector Bond | 10.0 | 66.9 | 404.6 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 8.0 | 71.9 | 2,033.6 |
| Corporate Bond | 7.4 | 13.6 | 240.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5 | -2.2 | 117 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -2.7 | -26.2 | 307.4 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -3.1 | -30.4 | 385.1 |
| Large Growth | -4.1 | -51.1 | 3,435.10 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3 | -38.8 | 499.6 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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