Weekly Market Recap
Week ended December 12
Market-moving news
Fleeting records
The S&P 500 and the Dow on Thursday eclipsed records set just a few weeks earlier, but both indexes retreated on Friday to close out a mixed week for stocks. The Dow finished with a 1.1% total return for the week, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the NASDAQ ended 1.6% lower.
Fed’s contested cut
For its third meeting in a row, the U.S. Federal Reserve fulfilled market expectations by cutting its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point. Nine of the Fed's voting members supported a cut, two others wanted rates to stay unchanged, and a third member voted for a deeper half-point reduction, adding to the uncertainty about how many cuts could be ahead in 2026.
Market rotation
Weekly performance was sharply divided, with many of the technology-oriented stocks that have driven 2025’s gains weighing on the broader market. More cyclical, value-oriented stocks climbed, and a large-cap value equity style benchmark finished 0.6% higher for the week while its growth counterpart was down 1.5%.
Small-cap record
A U.S. small-cap stock benchmark climbed to a record high on Thursday, capping a run that saw the index surge more than 12% over a stretch of 15 trading days dating to November 20. While the Russell 2000 Index retreated on Friday, it finished about 1.2% higher for the week overall.
2026 rate outlook
After three rate cuts in 2025, bond market trading high investor uncertainty about prospects for further cuts. As of Friday afternoon, prices in rate futures markets implied a roughly 70% probability that the Fed would implement at least two quarter-point cuts over the course of 2026, according to CME FedWatch. The probability of just a single cut was 23%, with a 7% probability for no cut.
Oil slick
U.S. crude futures finished down more than 4% for the week as the commodity fell to the lowest price since mid-October. Oil was trading around $57.40 on Friday afternoon amid fresh concerns about a potential global supply glut. On a year-to-date basis, oil was down about 9%.
Silver lining
Although 2025’s rise in gold prices has gained more attention, the price of silver has seen far bigger gains. Spot silver prices on Friday briefly climbed as high as $65 per ounce, a record level. At Friday afternoon’s price of around $62, silver was up 115% year to date.
Incomplete labor data
A monthly labor market report due out on Tuesday will be an unusual one, as the recent government shutdown delayed its release by 11 days. The report will include jobs data for both October and November, but the unemployment rate will be published only for November. That’s because household survey data used to estimate the jobless rate wasn’t collected in October.
The week ahead: December 15-19
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 12/12/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.6 | -0.5 | -1.5 | Large | |
| 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | Medium | |
| 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 16.1 | 17.1 | 18.0 | Large | |
| 12.2 | 11.9 | 10.4 | Medium | |
| 15.7 | 15.9 | 16.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 12/12/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 48,458.1 | 1.1 | 15.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 23,195.2 | -1.6 | 20.9 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,827.4 | -0.6 | 17.5 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,855.6 | 0.9 | 30.1 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.7 | 1.9 | -9.8 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.9 | 30.1 |
| Europe | 0.7 | 33.1 |
| France | 0.3 | 27.9 |
| Germany | 1.6 | 35.4 |
| Italy | 0.9 | 52.3 |
| Japan | 1.4 | 26.5 |
| Spain | 1.7 | 78.0 |
| Switzerland | 0.7 | 30.4 |
| U.K. | -0.2 | 30.2 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.4 | 32.9 |
| Brazil | 1.4 | 51.4 |
| China | -0.7 | 33.8 |
| India | -0.9 | 3.1 |
| Indonesia | -0.8 | -1.3 |
| Korea | 1.0 | 88.9 |
| Mexico | 3.1 | 57.1 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 1.3 | 36.3 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.6 | 17.5 |
| Communication services | -3.2 | 31.7 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.3 | 6.5 |
| Consumer staples | 1.2 | 5.5 |
| Energy | -0.6 | 9.4 |
| Financials | 2.3 | 15.0 |
| Healthcare | 0.5 | 13.6 |
| Industrials | 1.4 | 20.3 |
| Information tech | -2.3 | 23.2 |
| Materials | 2.4 | 9.3 |
| Real estate | -0.8 | 2.6 |
| Utilities | -1.0 | 15.6 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 12/12/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.8 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | -0.1 | -1.0 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | High | Credit quality |
| 4.9 | 6.9 | 6.6 | Medium | |
| 7.0 | 7.8 | 12.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 12/12/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.53 | 4.23 | -70 |
| 10 Yr | 4.19 | 4.57 | -38 |
| 30 Yr | 4.85 | 4.79 | 6 |
| 2-10 spread | 66 | 34 | 32 |
| 10-30 spread | 66 | 22 | 44 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.2 | 6.7 |
| Bank loans | 0.1 | 6.3 |
| Convertible | -0.4 | 18.6 |
| Corporate | -0.3 | 9.1 |
| High yield | -0.1 | 7.8 |
| MBS | -0.2 | 7.8 |
| Municipal | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Preferreds | 0.5 | 4.3 |
| TIPS | -0.2 | 6.8 |
| Treasury | -0.2 | 5.8 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.1 | 22.8 |
| EMD USD | 0.0 | 13.6 |
| Global Agg | 0.0 | 7.7 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.2 | 8.2 |
| Multiverse | 0.0 | 7.9 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -2.6 | 14.8 |
| Oil (WTI) | -4.3 | -8.3 |
| Gold | 2.1 | 61.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.0 | 7.3 |
| CAD | 0.5 | 4.4 |
| CHF | 1.1 | 13.9 |
| EUR | 0.8 | 13.4 |
| GBP | 0.1 | 6.6 |
| JPY | -0.4 | 0.8 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.4 | 2.2 | 6.4 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.8 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 1.85 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.3 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.86 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.96 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 4.52 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 11/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 13.0 | -8.7 | 17,983.4 |
| Sector Equity | -2.5 | -4.8 | 1,670.4 |
| Allocation | -4.2 | -63.0 | 1,552.8 |
| International Equity | 17.8 | 35.9 | 5,218.8 |
| Alternative | 1.0 | 13.8 | 125.5 |
| Commodities | 2.1 | 44.8 | 335.0 |
| Taxable Bond | 50.2 | 508.2 | 6,502.9 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.5 | 53.3 | 1,001.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 86.7 | 648.1 | 35,032.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 11/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 30.3 | 199.5 | 9,440.9 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 11.6 | 103.2 | 469.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 11.3 | 80.3 | 2,164.0 |
| Multisector Bond | 8.8 | 72.8 | 433.4 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 5.7 | -10.7 | 135.6 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 11/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -10.1 | -58.3 | 3,624.2 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -3.8 | -34.1 | 377.4 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3.7 | -45.1 | 502.1 |
| Digital Assets | -3.5 | 45.6 | 152.2 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.0 | -38.1 | 845.4 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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