Weekly Market Recap
Week ended May 1
Market-moving news
Moderating market
U.S. indexes rose modestly for the second week in a row, in contrast with the rapid advances that stocks generated in the first three weeks of April. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both added around 1% for the week, pushing their record levels higher. The Dow edged up 0.5%, finishing 1.4% below its record set nearly three months ago.
Fed transition
Although the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged, its updated policy statement drew dissents from 4 of 12 members, reflecting wide-ranging views on the path forward. It was likely the final meeting led by Jerome Powell, who said he plans to remain a Fed governor after his term as chair ends this month. Kevin Warsh’s nomination to replace Powell cleared a Senate panel, setting up a confirmation vote by the full Senate.
Bullish April
U.S. stocks rebounded in a big way from their negative first-quarter results, with two indexes posting double-digit returns in April. The NASDAQ rose 15.3% to record its biggest monthly gain since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s 10.4% rise was that index’s biggest since November 2020. The Dow advanced 7.1% for its strongest monthly result since November 2024.
Earnings progress
Earnings season forecast rose sharply after a handful of mega-cap tech companies reported better-than-expected results. As of Friday, analysts projected that earnings for S&P 500 companies rose 27.1% in the first quarter, up from a 15.0% forecast at the end of the previous week, according to FactSet. The latest forecast was based on the 63% of S&P 500 companies that had reported results as of Friday, plus projections for those that haven’t yet released their numbers.
GDP comeback
U.S. GDP grew at a 2.0% annual rate in this year’s first quarter as the economy gained momentum after posting a 0.5% result in the preceding quarter. Despite the acceleration, the government’s initial first-quarter estimate came in slightly lower than most economists had forecast, and it marked a slowdown from the 4.4% rate recorded in last year’s third quarter.
PCE inflation climbs
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation showed a sharp monthly increase as higher oil prices rippled across the broader economy. Excluding volatile energy and food costs, the core Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index climbed to an annual rate of 3.2% in March. The reading matched most economists’ estimates and marked the highest level since November 2023.
Oil volatility
Oil again traded in a wide range, briefly hitting the highest level since early April before pulling back late in the week. U.S. crude was trading around $102 per barrel on Friday afternoon after ending the previous week around $95. On Thursday, oil traded as high as $110; a couple of weeks earlier, it was around $84
Jobs ahead
A jobs report due out on Friday will show whether recent strengthening in the labor market extended into April. In March, the economy added an above-forecast 178,000 jobs, rebounding from a net loss of 133,000 in February. The labor market has been stuck in a zig-zag pattern over the past 10 months, posting job declines over five of those months, followed by gains in each of the subsequent months.
The week ahead: May 4-8
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 5/1/26 (%)
1 week
| 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | Large | |
| 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | Medium | |
| 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 10.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | Large | |
| 11.3 | 8.5 | -0.4 | Medium | |
| 15.3 | 13.7 | 12.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 5/1/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 49,499.3 | 0.5 | 3.5 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 25,114.4 | 1.1 | 8.2 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,230.1 | 0.9 | 6.0 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,048.8 | 1.0 | 6.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 17.0 | -9.1 | 13.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 1.0 | 6.7 |
| Europe | 0.7 | 4.7 |
| France | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Germany | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| Italy | 1.6 | 6.6 |
| Japan | 2.0 | 11.0 |
| Spain | 1.7 | 4.1 |
| Switzerland | 0.7 | 3.3 |
| U.K. | 0.8 | 7.4 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.5 | 14.7 |
| Brazil | -0.5 | 24.6 |
| China | -1.6 | -5.6 |
| India | -0.3 | -10.6 |
| Indonesia | -4.3 | -26.1 |
| Korea | 2.3 | 61.3 |
| Mexico | -2.0 | 11.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -1.2 | 37.8 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 0.9 | 6.0 |
| Communication services | 4.5 | 10.3 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Consumer staples | 1.2 | 10.9 |
| Energy | 3.3 | 31.7 |
| Financials | 0.9 | -4.7 |
| Healthcare | 0.7 | -5.8 |
| Industrials | 0.3 | 11.9 |
| Information tech | 0.1 | 8.2 |
| Materials | -2.0 | 12.3 |
| Real estate | 1.3 | 14.3 |
| Utilities | 0.8 | 9.8 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 5/1/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.9 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | Medium | |
| 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 5/1/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.89 | 3.48 | 41 |
| 10 Yr | 4.38 | 4.16 | 22 |
| 30 Yr | 4.97 | 4.84 | 13 |
| 2-10 spread | 49 | 68 | -9 |
| 10-30 spread | 59 | 68 | -9 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Convertible | 1.4 | 15.1 |
| Corporate | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| High yield | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| MBS | -0.4 | 0.6 |
| Municipal | -0.3 | 1.0 |
| Preferreds | -0.1 | 1.2 |
| TIPS | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Treasury | -0.4 | 0.0 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.3 | 2.7 |
| EMD USD | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Global Agg | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Multiverse | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 3.1 | 29.4 |
| Oil (WTI) | 7.8 | 92.6 |
| Gold | -2.0 | 6.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 1.1 | 8.2 |
| CAD | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| CHF | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| EUR | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| GBP | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| JPY | 1.8 | 0.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 0.8 | 3.0 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.0 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 1.75 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.3 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 3.03 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.51 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 4.97 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 3/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -3.4 | -92.9 | 17,275.1 |
| Sector Equity | -1.3 | 60.4 | 1,717.9 |
| Allocation | -7.3 | -57.6 | 1,529.6 |
| International Equity | 13.4 | 133.9 | 5,365.0 |
| Alternative | 3.2 | 20.4 | 140.7 |
| Commodities | -10.6 | 43.6 | 394.0 |
| Taxable Bond | 27.0 | 623.6 | 6,707.4 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.3 | 81.3 | 1,029.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | 41.7 | 857.3 | 34,792.0 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultrashort Bond | 24.9 | 104.4 | 520.3 |
| Large Blend | 15.0 | 168.8 | 9,103.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 12.2 | 104.5 | 2,275.2 |
| Intermediate Government | 6.2 | 33.5 | 210.3 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 5.7 | -20.0 | 111.0 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities Focused | -12.2 | 38.0 | 328.5 |
| High Yield Bond | -9.4 | -1.8 | 388.6 |
| Large Growth | -8.0 | -90.4 | 3,263.1 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -4.7 | -42.7 | 334.5 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.2 | -40.8 | 815.6 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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