Weekly Market Recap
Week ended October 10
Market-moving news
Market reversal
The U.S. stock market’s recent upward trend was interrupted after a sell-off on Friday left the S&P 500 down 2.4% for the week and sent the index to just its third negative result out of the past 10 weeks. The NASDAQ finished down 2.5% and the Dow ended 2.7% lower.
Trade tensions
The S&P 500 had been on course for a modest weekly gain until midday Friday, when escalating tensions between the United States and China sent the index down 2.7% for the day. President Trump announced that he was considering a further tariff increase on Chinese imports and said there was “no reason” to keep a previously scheduled meeting with China’s leader. The president cited new restrictions that China imposed on its export of rare earth minerals.
Gold record
Gold futures posted their eighth weekly gain in a row and the precious metal topped the $4,000-per-ounce level for the first time ever. At Friday afternoon’s price of around $4,030, At Friday afternoon’s price of around $4,030, gold's year-to-date gain was around 50%. Silver was up more than 70%.
Oil tumbles
The price of U.S. crude oil sank more than 5% on Friday following President Trump’s threat about the prospect of higher tariffs on imports from China. In afternoon trading, oil was trading around $58 per barrel, the lowest level in more than five months. Concerns about a potential global oversupply have recently weighed on oil prices.
Fed outlook
Although the U.S. government shutdown continued to delay the release of economic reports, it didn’t stop the U.S. Federal Reserve from releasing minutes from the recent meeting at which it cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point. Wednesday’s release reaffirmed investor expectations for further cuts before year end, as a majority of Fed members cited risks that labor market conditions could weaken further without additional rate cuts.
Japanese volatility
A Japanese stock index surged nearly 5% on Monday and set a record high after a leadership change atop Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. However, the index retreated later in the week after a political coalition partner withdrew its alliance with the party, creating uncertainty about whether Sanae Takaichi will become prime minister.
Earnings ahead
As major U.S. banks prepared to open quarterly earnings season on Tuesday, analysts were forecasting that third-quarter earnings for all companies in the S&P 500 rose by an average of around 8.0% overall, according to FactSet. A positive result would mark the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.
Dividends rise
The growth rate for dividend payments by U.S. companies accelerated in this year’s third quarter. The $10.6 billion in net dividend increases recorded by companies in the S&P 500 was well above the previous quarter’s $7.4 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which said it expects full-year dividend increases to climb to a record level in 2025 with a forecast for a nearly 6% rise over 2024.
The week ahead: October 13-17*
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 10/10/25 (%)
1 week
| -2.7 | -2.5 | -2.2 | Large | |
| -3.8 | -3.4 | -2.1 | Medium | |
| -4.0 | -3.3 | -2.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 9.3 | 12.3 | 15.0 | Large | |
| 6.3 | 7.5 | 10.8 | Medium | |
| 6.3 | 8.5 | 10.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 10/10/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 45,479.6 | -2.7 | 8.3 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 22,204.4 | -2.5 | 15.6 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,552.5 | -2.4 | 12.5 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,758.0 | -1.9 | 25.3 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 21.7 | 29.9 | 24.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -1.9 | 25.3 |
| Europe | -2.4 | 27.8 |
| France | -3.3 | 23.7 |
| Germany | -2.0 | 33.5 |
| Italy | -4.4 | 43.0 |
| Japan | -0.6 | 20.6 |
| Spain | -2.4 | 58.8 |
| Switzerland | -1.1 | 25.1 |
| U.K. | -1.9 | 26.0 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.6 | 30.1 |
| Brazil | -4.0 | 31.6 |
| China | -3.3 | 38.6 |
| India | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Indonesia | 1.4 | -5.3 |
| Korea | 1.6 | 67.7 |
| Mexico | -2.6 | 42.6 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 1.3 | 35.1 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -2.4 | 12.5 |
| Communication services | -2.1 | 20.5 |
| Consumer discretionary | -3.3 | 1.0 |
| Consumer staples | 0.6 | 3.8 |
| Energy | -4.0 | 2.4 |
| Financials | -2.9 | 9.2 |
| Healthcare | -1.9 | 4.7 |
| Industrials | -2.9 | 15.0 |
| Information tech | -2.5 | 20.3 |
| Materials | -3.1 | 6.1 |
| Real estate | -3.0 | 1.9 |
| Utilities | 1.4 | 21.7 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 10/10/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | Medium | |
| -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 3.7 | 5.7 | 7.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 4.3 | 6.5 | 8.3 | Medium | |
| 6.0 | 6.3 | 12.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 10/10/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.52 | 4.23 | -71 |
| 10 Yr | 4.06 | 4.57 | -51 |
| 30 Yr | 4.63 | 4.79 | -16 |
| 2-10 spread | 53 | 34 | 19 |
| 10-30 spread | 58 | 22 | 36 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.3 | 6.7 |
| Bank loans | -0.3 | 4.5 |
| Convertible | -1.3 | 18.3 |
| Corporate | 0.0 | 8.7 |
| High yield | -0.8 | 6.3 |
| MBS | 0.3 | 7.4 |
| Municipal | 0.3 | 3.2 |
| Preferreds | -1.2 | 5.2 |
| TIPS | 0.4 | 7.3 |
| Treasury | 0.5 | 6.1 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.7 | 18.3 |
| EMD USD | -0.2 | 10.9 |
| Global Agg | -0.5 | 7.5 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -1.1 | 7.9 |
| Multiverse | -0.5 | 7.6 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -1.1 | 8.9 |
| Oil (WTI) | -3.1 | -7.6 |
| Gold | 2.4 | 49.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | -1.0 | 5.6 |
| CAD | -0.3 | 2.8 |
| CHF | -1.2 | 12.6 |
| EUR | -1.4 | 11.8 |
| GBP | -1.2 | 6.2 |
| JPY | -3.3 | 3.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.5 | 2.2 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.2 | -0.4 | 5.3 | 1.86 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.2 | 2.4 | 6.3 | 2.63 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.70 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.67 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 8/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -14.1 | 59.0 | 17,129.1 |
| Sector Equity | 3.2 | -23.0 | 1,544.7 |
| Allocation | -3.6 | -66.6 | 1,505.1 |
| International Equity | 2.3 | 16.7 | 4,925.4 |
| Alternative | 6.0 | 65.3 | 293.2 |
| Commodities | 3.9 | 30.6 | 261.6 |
| Taxable Bond | 64.7 | 472.5 | 6,227.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 6.9 | 50.3 | 948.0 |
| Total all long-term funds | 68.3 | 634.9 | 33,281.1 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 12.8 | 108.8 | 1,550.4 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 10.9 | 112.3 | 477.7 |
| Multisector Bond | 10.0 | 66.9 | 404.6 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 8.0 | 71.9 | 2,033.6 |
| Corporate Bond | 7.4 | 13.6 | 240.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5 | -2.2 | 117 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -2.7 | -26.2 | 307.4 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -3.1 | -30.4 | 385.1 |
| Large Growth | -4.1 | -51.1 | 3,435.10 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3 | -38.8 | 499.6 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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