Weekly Market Recap
Week ended October 2
Market-moving news
Another mixed week
Strong performance from technology stocks lifted the NASDAQ to a fractional weekly gain, and the index outperformed the other major U.S. indexes for the sixth week in a row. The S&P 500 ended fractionally lower for the week, while the Dow finished down more than 1%.
Yield curve steepens
The week produced another bumpy ride for bond investors, as yields of some government debt maturities briefly touched the highest levels since 2002 before modestly retreating. Yields of shorter duration bonds generally finished the week flat overall, with the 2-year Treasury ending at 4.84%. Longer duration yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63%.
Jobs setback
After rebounding in August, the U.S. labor market reverted in September to the slow-growth pace seen in the late spring and early summer. The economy added 29,000 jobs last month—below consensus expectations for 80,000 to 90,000—and the initial jobs growth estimates for the previous two months were adjusted downward by a combined 60,000 jobs. September’s unemployment rate was 4.2%, up from 4.1% in August.
Shifting rate outlook
Following Friday’s worse-than-expected jobs report, bond trading reflected investor expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to keep its benchmark rate unchanged on October 28, rather than lifting it for the second meeting in a row. Trading in rate futures markets implied a roughly 79% probability that the Fed would hold steady at its next meeting, versus a 21% probability of a quarter-point rate hike, according to CME FedWatch. A week before the jobs report, trading implied a 64% probability of a rate hike.
Moderating inflation
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation recorded lower-than-expected price pressures in the latest monthly report. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, below consensus expectations for 3.7%. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core PCE rose 3.0%, down from 3.3% in July and below consensus expectations.
September snapshot
The U.S. stock market closed out the third quarter with mixed September results for the major indexes. Gains from many of the biggest technology stocks helped the NASDAQ outperform, and the index rose 1.9%. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% while the Dow lagged, declining 4.3% and snapping a five-month streak of gains.
GDP upgrade
The U.S. government’s final estimate of second-quarter GDP delivered a positive adjustment due to increases in consumer and government spending. GDP growth was estimated at an annual rate of 2.2% for the quarter versus a 1.5% figure for the previous estimate.
Mortgage rate spike
Amid elevated bond yields, the average 30-year mortgage rate posted its largest weekly increase in four years. The average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 7.28% from 7.03% the previous week, Freddie Mac reported on Thursday. A separate national report showed that mortgage applications have fallen for four consecutive weeks.
The week ahead: October 5-9
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 10/2/26 (%)
1 week
| -1.0 | -0.2 | 0.7 | Large | |
| -0.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | Medium | |
| -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 20.0 | 13.4 | 7.9 | Large | |
| 16.6 | 13.5 | 3.6 | Medium | |
| 18.6 | 15.2 | 12.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 10/2/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,177.0 | -1.3 | 7.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 27,190.9 | 0.5 | 17.5 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,722.7 | -0.2 | 13.8 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,095.4 | -1.5 | 9.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -1.5 | 9.7 |
| Europe | -2.2 | 5.4 |
| France | -3.2 | -3.7 |
| Germany | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| Italy | -4.6 | 8.4 |
| Japan | 0.1 | 22.5 |
| Spain | -4.4 | 10.0 |
| Switzerland | -2.0 | 1.9 |
| U.K. | -2.2 | 6.6 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -1.2 | 24.0 |
| Brazil | 3.7 | 21.6 |
| China | -1.9 | -13.3 |
| India | -3.7 | -15.9 |
| Indonesia | -2.7 | -39.5 |
| Korea | -0.6 | 104.0 |
| Mexico | -2.7 | 5.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 0.2 | 72.1 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| S&P 500 Index | -0.2 | 13.8 |
| Consumer discretionary | -0.2 | -4.7 |
| Communication services | -1.6 | 4.1 |
| Consumer staples | -1.8 | 5.9 |
| Energy | 1.4 | 43.3 |
| Financials | -2.5 | -1.1 |
| Healthcare | -2.7 | 8.7 |
| Industrials | -0.3 | 10.5 |
| Information tech | 1.4 | 30.7 |
| Materials | -1.5 | 9.5 |
| Real estate | -1.7 | 8.1 |
| Utilities | 0.7 | -4.7 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 10/2/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -1.7 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | -0.4 | -1.5 | Medium | |
| -0.3 | -0.6 | -3.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.8 | -1.4 | -7.7 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.6 | -1.9 | -5.8 | Medium | |
| 1.3 | 0.1 | -4.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 10/2/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.84 | 3.48 | 136 |
| 10 Yr | 5.28 | 4.16 | 112 |
| 30 Yr | 5.63 | 4.84 | 79 |
| 2-10 spread | 44 | 68 | -24 |
| 10-30 spread | 35 | 68 | -33 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.6 | -2.9 |
| Bank loans | -0.2 | 2.6 |
| Convertible | -0.2 | 15.7 |
| Corporate | -0.8 | -4.0 |
| High yield | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| MBS | -0.8 | -3.1 |
| Municipal | 0.5 | -3.2 |
| Preferreds | -0.8 | -6.3 |
| TIPS | -0.4 | -2.1 |
| Treasury | -0.5 | -2.7 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.9 | 1.4 |
| EMD USD | -1.5 | -1.2 |
| Global Agg | -0.5 | -2.8 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.5 | -2.7 |
| Multiverse | -0.5 | -2.6 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -1.9 | 32.6 |
| Oil (WTI) | -1.3 | 99.1 |
| Gold | -3.6 | -5.0 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | -0.8 | 4.5 |
| CAD | -0.7 | -3.7 |
| CHF | 0.0 | -4.4 |
| EUR | -1.1 | -4.0 |
| GBP | 0.0 | -1.5 |
| JPY | -0.3 | -0.6 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | _ |
| China | 4.3 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 1.70 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 3.45 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.11 |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 5.37 |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 8/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -0.6 | 56.9 | 20,328.8 |
| Taxable Bond | 75.6 | 792.7 | 7,048.3 |
| International Equity | 8.3 | 127.8 | 6,170.0 |
| Sector Equity | -9.4 | 136.9 | 2,110.2 |
| Allocation | -5.3 | -60.7 | 1,643.3 |
| Municipal Bond | 8.3 | 107.7 | 1,076.7 |
| Nontraditional Equity | 9.4 | 31.5 | 392.1 |
| Commodities | 5.1 | 57.4 | 385.2 |
| Miscellaneous | 3.9 | -10.3 | 322.5 |
| Alternative | 2.8 | 33.1 | 163.6 |
| N/A | -3.7 | -31.9 | 63.7 |
| Total all long-term funds | 94.5 | 1,241.1 | 39,704.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 15.5 | 171.4 | 1,709.1 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.0 | 120.3 | 575.9 |
| Large Growth | 10.3 | -94.8 | 3,864.2 |
| Short Government | 9.0 | 20.8 | 118.6 |
| Commodities Focused | 8.5 | 24.5 | 319.3 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Cap Growth | -5.0 | -52.0 | 349.5 |
| Technology | -4.8 | 87.2 | 855.7 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -4.5 | -31.2 | 383.7 |
| Financial | -4.1 | -77.9 | 110.5 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.9 | -46.8 | 875.1 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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