Weekly Market Recap
Week ended November 24
Market-moving news
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Steady rise
U.S. stock indexes climbed for the fourth week in a row as the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow posted gains of around 1% in a holiday-shortened trading week. Over those four positive weeks, the S&P 500 was up nearly 11%.
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Growth’s big YTD lead
With a little over a month left in 2023, U.S. growth stocks maintained a big performance gap over their value style counterparts—a sharp reversal from 2022, when value outpaced growth. Through Friday, a U.S. large-cap growth index was up 36.7% year to date on a total return basis; the return for its value-style counterpart was 4.8%
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Earnings scorecard
With nearly all third-quarter results in as of Friday, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average earnings gain of 4.3% over the same quarter a year earlier, according to the latest data from FactSet. That result would mark the first quarter of earnings growth since the third quarter of 2022.
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Quiet market
An index that tracks investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell for the fifth week in a row. The Cboe Volatility Index on Friday was trading around 42% below a recent peak on October 20. The so-called VIX is down roughly the same amount year to date.
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Home sales slump
U.S. sales of existing homes in October fell 14.6% from the same month a year ago to the lowest total in 13 years. With interest rates staying high, economists expect that 2023’s existing home sales total could end up being the lowest since 2011.
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Fed’s rate outlook
Tuesday’s release of minutes from the most recent U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting showed that Fed officials gave no indications that they were inclined to begin cutting interest rates anytime soon. Members agreed that Fed policies need to stay “restrictive” until data shows a convincing trend that inflation will return to the central bank’s 2% target.
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Holiday shopping outlook
The short-term outlook for U.S. retail sales was mixed as of Black Friday, the unofficial start of the U.S. holiday shopping season. A forecast from the National Retail Federation projects that holiday spending during November and December is likely to rise 3.0% to 4.0% from last year. Such an outcome would lag last year’s holiday sales growth of 5.4%.
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GDP ahead
With the next monthly jobs report not scheduled to come out until December 8, Wednesday’s update on U.S. GDP growth is likely to be the most closely watched economic report of the new week. It will be the second estimate of third-quarter growth; the initial estimate released in late October put growth at a stronger-than-expected annual rate of 4.9%, up from a 2.1% figure in this year’s second quarter.
The week ahead: November 27-December 1
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Capital Market Performance Report
Detailed weekly data on equities and fixed income—factors, fundamentals, styles/sizes, sectors/industries/stocks
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 11/24/23 (%)
1 week
| 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Large | |
| 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 4.8 | 20.2 | 36.7 | Large | |
| 3.6 | 7.8 | 16.0 | Medium | |
| 1.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 11/24/23 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 35,390.2 | 1.3 | 8.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 14,250.9 | 0.9 | 37.2 |
| S&P 500 Index | 4,559.3 | 1.0 | 20.5 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,101.4 | 1.1 | 12.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 12.5 | -9.4 | -42.4 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 1.1 | 12.7 |
| Europe | 1.5 | 14.8 |
| France | 1.3 | 17.0 |
| Germany | 1.1 | 17.7 |
| Italy | 1.4 | 33.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 15.3 |
| Spain | 2.3 | 29.1 |
| Switzerland | 1.6 | 9.4 |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 9.3 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.5 | 5.3 |
| Brazil | 0.5 | 23.5 |
| China | 1.3 | -7.6 |
| India | 0.1 | 10.0 |
| Indonesia | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Korea | -0.3 | 12.5 |
| Mexico | 0.9 | 28.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 0.9 | 22.1 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.0 | 20.5 |
| Communication services | 1.3 | 52.1 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.8 | 33.8 |
| Consumer staples | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| Energy | 0.2 | -0.8 |
| Financials | 1.0 | 4.9 |
| Healthcare | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| Industrials | 0.8 | 9.7 |
| Information tech | 0.6 | 51.8 |
| Materials | 1.1 | 5.9 |
| Real estate | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Utilities | 0.7 | -8.9 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 11/24/23 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.5 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 3.6 | 1.4 | -6.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.6 | Medium | |
| 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/24/23 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.95 | 4.42 | 53 |
| 10 Yr | 4.47 | 3.88 | 59 |
| 30 Yr | 4.60 | 3.97 | 63 |
| 2-10 spread | -48 | -54 | 6 |
| 10-30 spread | 13 | 9 | 4 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 9.4 |
| Convertible | 0.2 | 6.0 |
| Corporate | 0.2 | 2.9 |
| High yield | 0.4 | 8.3 |
| MBS | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| Municipal | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| Preferreds | -1.0 | 9.9 |
| TIPS | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Treasury | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.1 | 9.5 |
| EMD USD | 0.9 | 4.9 |
| Global Agg | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Multiverse | 0.2 | 0.7 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -0.4 | -5.8 |
| Oil (WTI) | -0.6 | 3.2 |
| Gold | 1.0 | 9.6 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.1 | 6.3 |
| AUD | 1.3 | -2.9 |
| CAD | 0.9 | -0.4 |
| CHF | 0.5 | 4.9 |
| EUR | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| GBP | 1.4 | 4.9 |
| JPY | 0.0 | -11.7 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
| Eurozone | 0.1 | 2.9 | 6.5 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.9 | -0.2 | 5.0 | 2.71 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.4 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 2.65 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.6 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.77 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.28 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 10/31/23 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| U.S. Equity | 3.7 | -134.5 | 11,321.4 |
| Sector Equity | -9.2 | -67.6 | 1,093.5 |
| Allocation | -9.5 | -86.5 | 1,209.4 |
| International Equity | -10.4 | -31.6 | 3,414.0 |
| Alternative | 0.7 | -10.3 | 165.0 |
| Commodities | -1.4 | -19.6 | 156.0 |
| Taxable Bond | -8.0 | 170.1 | 4,778.0 |
| Municipal Bond | -8.0 | -23.1 | 800.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | -44.0 | -199.6 | 23,107.8 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/23 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Blend | 20.4 | 51.6 | 5,750.7 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 12.9 | 16.7 | 336.5 |
| Long Government | 6.8 | 50.3 | 133.7 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 3.1 | 125.3 | 1,169.7 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 3.1 | 26.5 | 1,299.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/23 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Value | -10.7 | -79.7 | 1,478.6 |
| High Yield Bond | -9.5 | -21.4 | 282.8 |
| Short-Term Bond | -8.9 | -59.8 | 485.4 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | -5.0 | 40.7 | 691.7 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.4 | -36.1 | 651.8 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
