Weekly Market Recap
Weekly Market Recap is taking a break for the week ended November 28 and will return for the week ended December 5. The content below reflects the week ended November 21.
Week ended November 21
Market-moving news
Tech pullback
The NASDAQ sustained its third consecutive weekly decline as doubts resurfaced about the resilience of this year’s AI-fueled market rally. The index finished the week down 2.7%; with more modest weightings in tech stocks, the S&P 500 and the Dow posted smaller declines of just under 2.0%.
Fed cut uncertainty
Shifts in the outlook for an interest rate cut at the next U.S. Federal Reserve meeting fueled market volatility. Friday afternoon’s prices in rate futures markets implied a nearly 72% probability that the Fed would cut by a quarter point at its meeting concluding December 10, according to CME FedWatch. Just two days earlier, traders had been pricing in a roughly 30% likelihood of a December cut.
Solid jobs gain
A long-delayed jobs report issued on Thursday showed that recent labor market weakness eased in September, before the government shutdown. The U.S. economy generated 119,000 new jobs, more than double the figure that most economists had forecast. However, unemployment rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.
Bitcoin sell-off
A week after falling into a bear market, the price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency fell further, sinking to the lowest level in seven months. Bitcoin was trading around $85,000 on Friday afternoon, down from its record price of about $125,000 reached in early October.
Volatility returns
A gauge that tracks investors’ short-term expectations of U.S. stock market volatility surged, accelerating a rise that began the previous week. The Cboe Volatility Index climbed as high as 28 in trading on Thursday before pulling back to close around 23 on Friday. The figure was up from the prior week’s closing VIX level of just below 20.
Rising margins
As earnings season wrapped up, FactSet reported that the overall net profit margin for America’s largest companies rose to the highest level since the research firm began collecting margin data in 2009. Companies in the S&P 500 reported an average third-quarter margin of 13.1%, above the previous record of 13.0% set in the second quarter of 2021. The margin has now increased for seven quarters in a row.
Yields slip
Yields of U.S. government fell on Friday after a speech by one of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s voting members lifted investor expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s meeting concluding on December 10. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury finished at 4.06%, down from 4.15% at the end of the previous week.
Data confusion
The backlog of U.S. economic data resulting from the recent government shutdown continued to leave investors and policymakers guessing ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, which will further disrupt the release schedule. The unemployment rate and the Consumer Price Index for October won’t be released because data couldn’t be collected. The government also hasn’t issued a third-quarter GDP estimate.
The week ahead: November 24-28*
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 11/21/25 (%)
1 week
| -0.8 | -1.9 | -2.9 | Large | |
| -0.9 | -1.2 | -2.4 | Medium | |
| -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 11.3 | 13.0 | 14.5 | Large | |
| 7.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | Medium | |
| 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 11/21/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 46,245.4 | -1.8 | 10.3 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 22,273.1 | -2.7 | 16.0 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,603.0 | -1.9 | 13.6 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,723.3 | -3.4 | 24.0 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 23.4 | 18.2 | 34.5 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -3.4 | 24.0 |
| Europe | -3.2 | 26.7 |
| France | -3.2 | 23.9 |
| Germany | -4.2 | 25.8 |
| Italy | -4.0 | 45.2 |
| Japan | -3.6 | 21.1 |
| Spain | -4.3 | 64.0 |
| Switzerland | -2.1 | 25.9 |
| U.K. | -2.0 | 26.2 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -3.7 | 27.2 |
| Brazil | -3.7 | 45.2 |
| China | -5.5 | 30.1 |
| India | -0.7 | 4.1 |
| Indonesia | 0.5 | -1.0 |
| Korea | -5.5 | 73.0 |
| Mexico | -1.6 | 46.2 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -4.2 | 26.2 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.9 | 13.6 |
| Communication services | 3.0 | 27.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | -3.2 | -0.1 |
| Consumer staples | 0.8 | 3.8 |
| Energy | -2.8 | 7.4 |
| Financials | -1.5 | 8.1 |
| Healthcare | 1.9 | 14.0 |
| Industrials | -1.6 | 14.8 |
| Information tech | -4.7 | 19.2 |
| Materials | -0.6 | 4.6 |
| Real estate | -0.1 | 3.2 |
| Utilities | -0.7 | 18.9 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 11/21/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 4.1 | 6.3 | 6.7 | High | Credit quality |
| 4.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | Medium | |
| 6.5 | 7.0 | 13.4 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/21/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.51 | 4.23 | -72 |
| 10 Yr | 4.06 | 4.57 | -51 |
| 30 Yr | 4.71 | 4.79 | -8 |
| 2-10 spread | 55 | 34 | 21 |
| 10-30 spread | 65 | 22 | 43 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.5 | 7.1 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 5.5 |
| Convertible | -2.1 | 13.7 |
| Corporate | 0.5 | 9.0 |
| High yield | 0.0 | 7.0 |
| MBS | 0.4 | 8.0 |
| Municipal | -0.1 | 4.0 |
| Preferreds | -1.1 | 3.7 |
| TIPS | 0.2 | 7.2 |
| Treasury | 0.5 | 6.4 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -1.0 | 20.2 |
| EMD USD | 0.1 | 12.8 |
| Global Agg | -0.3 | 7.2 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.8 | 7.2 |
| Multiverse | -0.3 | 7.4 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -1.4 | 13.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | -3.1 | -7.5 |
| Gold | -0.3 | 53.4 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | -1.7 | 3.9 |
| CAD | -0.7 | 1.8 |
| CHF | -1.9 | 12.1 |
| EUR | -1.0 | 11.1 |
| GBP | -0.4 | 4.5 |
| JPY | -1.4 | 0.4 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.4 | 2.1 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.8 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 1.82 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.3 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.70 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.79 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 4.55 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 10/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -16.7 | 28.9 | 17,887.5 |
| Sector Equity | 14.8 | 7.9 | 1,673.8 |
| Allocation | -3.9 | -63.9 | 1,532.3 |
| International Equity | 11.1 | 21.4 | 5,191.1 |
| Alternative | 0.2 | 13.1 | 123.8 |
| Commodities | 5.9 | 42.1 | 318.5 |
| Taxable Bond | 64.0 | 495.7 | 6,428.2 |
| Municipal Bond | 9.7 | 53.5 | 994.5 |
| Total all long-term funds | 87.1 | 662.3 | 34,248.6 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 19.3 | 115.0 | 1,595.1 |
| Multisector Bond | 9.2 | 70.1 | 423.2 |
| Large Blend | 9.1 | 202.9 | 9,374.4 |
| Technology | 8.5 | 26.7 | 611.9 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 8.2 | 82.2 | 2,137.8 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Cap Value | -3.4 | -31.4 | 297.1 |
| Small Blend | -4.0 | -20.8 | 641.7 |
| High Yield Bond | -4.2 | 14.4 | 398.3 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -4.5 | -32.1 | 382.8 |
| Large Growth | -5.8 | -47.1 | 3,684.3 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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