Weekly Market Recap
Week ended March 13
Market-moving news
Downward trend
The major U.S. stock indexes fell for the third consecutive week, with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow dropping around 1% to 2%. Geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continued to weigh on stock and bond prices.
Oil's wild ride
Conflict in the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fueled oil market volatility for a second week, with U.S. crude futures spiking to $119 per barrel on Monday and then briefly slipping below $77 the next day. On Friday afternoon, oil was trading around $98, up from a recent low of around $65 on February 27
Below peak levels
The three-week string of declines for the S&P 500 left the index nearly 5% below its record high reached on January 27 and almost 3% lower on a year-to-date basis. The NASDAQ was nearly 8% below its October 29, 2025, record and down almost 5% year to date.
Sticky inflation
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for measuring inflation remained well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index reading on core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—came in at 3.1% in January, slightly above December’s 3.0% reading. On a month-to-month basis, inflation rose 0.4%.
Yields surge again
Prices of U.S. government bonds fell for the second week in a row, sending yields sharply higher, as elevated oil prices fueled inflationary pressures. The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.28%, up from 4.15% the previous week. As recently as February 27, the yield slipped to 3.96%—the lowest in more than four months
GDP setback
The U.S. economy expanded at a far slower pace in late 2025 than an initial estimate had indicated. Friday’s revision showed that GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter. The figure was down from the 1.4% estimate released in February and well below the 4.4% rate recorded in last year’s third quarter.
Volatility elevated
An index that tracks investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility eased slightly for the week but remained elevated. Tthe Cboe Volatility Index finished the week at 27.2, down from 29.5 at the end of the previous week. As recently as January 23, the VIX was below 16.
Fed ahead
Bond market trading ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting continued to support expectations of a policy pause in the wake of recent rate cuts. Friday’s trading in rate futures markets implied a 99% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, March 18, according to CME FedWatch. At its most recent meeting in January, the Fed held steady after approving rate cuts at its three previous meetings.
The week ahead: March 16-20
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 3/13/26 (%)
1 week
| -1.4 | -1.6 | -2.0 | Large | |
| -2.0 | -2.2 | -3.0 | Medium | |
| -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.5 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 2.2 | -2.9 | -7.3 | Large | |
| 2.8 | 0.8 | -5.3 | Medium | |
| 3.0 | 0.1 | -2.4 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 3/13/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 46,558.5 | -1.9 | -2.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 22,105.4 | -1.2 | -4.8 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,632.2 | -1.6 | -2.9 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,901.1 | -2.0 | 0.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 27.2 | -7.8 | 81.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -2.0 | 0.7 |
| Europe | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| France | -2.2 | -4.9 |
| Germany | -1.6 | -6.0 |
| Italy | -0.9 | -3.9 |
| Japan | -3.4 | 4.5 |
| Spain | -0.9 | -3.8 |
| Switzerland | -2.4 | -1.9 |
| U.K. | -0.8 | 2.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -2.0 | 4.9 |
| Brazil | -0.9 | 11.7 |
| China | 0.4 | -3.9 |
| India | -5.7 | -12.5 |
| Indonesia | -6.0 | -18.7 |
| Korea | -3.0 | 31.3 |
| Mexico | -3.3 | 3.4 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -1.6 | 14.9 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.6 | -2.9 |
| Communication services | -1.2 | -2.9 |
| Consumer discretionary | -3.0 | -7.9 |
| Consumer staples | -0.2 | 10.5 |
| Energy | 2.2 | 29.2 |
| Financials | -3.4 | -10.7 |
| Healthcare | -2.0 | -3.2 |
| Industrials | -3.1 | 6.2 |
| Information tech | -0.8 | -6.6 |
| Materials | -1.5 | 7.9 |
| Real estate | -1.1 | 7.7 |
| Utilities | 0.5 | 10.0 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 3/13/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.1 | -0.4 | -2.0 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.2 | -0.6 | -2.5 | Medium | |
| -0.4 | -0.7 | -2.0 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.3 | 0.1 | -2.0 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | -0.5 | -1.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 3/13/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.73 | 3.48 | 25 |
| 10 Yr | 4.28 | 4.16 | 12 |
| 30 Yr | 4.91 | 4.84 | 7 |
| 2-10 spread | 55 | 68 | -13 |
| 10-30 spread | 63 | 68 | -5 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| Bank loans | 0.4 | -1.0 |
| Convertible | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| Corporate | -1.4 | -1.0 |
| High yield | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| MBS | -0.8 | 0.3 |
| Municipal | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| Preferreds | -1.1 | 0.5 |
| TIPS | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| Treasury | -0.8 | 0.0 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -1.8 | -1.6 |
| EMD USD | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| Global Agg | -1.2 | -1.0 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| Multiverse | -1.2 | -1.0 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 2.7 | 23.9 |
| Oil (WTI) | 10.7 | 71.4 |
| Gold | -1.8 | 16.5 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| CAD | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| CHF | -1.3 | 0.3 |
| EUR | -1.2 | -2.6 |
| GBP | -0.9 | -1.6 |
| JPY | -1.2 | -1.8 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 1.9 | 6.1 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.5 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 1.82 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.4 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 2.98 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.25 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.77 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 2/28/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 5.4 | -91.0 | 18,238.2 |
| Sector Equity | 8.9 | 48.7 | 1,826.3 |
| Allocation | -3.8 | -58.6 | 1,608.2 |
| International Equity | 28.2 | 118.0 | 5,856.7 |
| Alternative | 3.2 | 18.0 | 138.1 |
| Commodities | 4.3 | 61.1 | 446.0 |
| Taxable Bond | 85.8 | 617.4 | 6,796.7 |
| Municipal Bond | 11.0 | 75.6 | 1,046.0 |
| Total all long-term funds | 146.8 | 825.9 | 3,606.4 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 2/28/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 19.1 | 164.9 | 9,589.1 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 17.0 | 137.4 | 1,679.4 |
| Global Bond-USD Hedged | 10.7 | 53.5 | 383.2 |
| Multisector Bond | 9.8 | 86.3 | 464.4 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 9.4 | 54.8 | 945.0 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 2/28/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -18.7 | -86.9 | 3,459.1 |
| Financial | -4.9 | -8.5 | 101.9 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -4.8 | -40.6 | 363.6 |
| Bank Loan | -4.0 | -24.2 | 86.0 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3.3 | -46.0 | 532.7 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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