Weekly Market Recap
Week ended March 28
Market-moving news
Midweek reversal
After posting gains on Monday and Tuesday, the major U.S. stock indexes turned negative the next three days to finish with overall weekly declines ranging from around 1% to nearly 3%. For the S&P 500, it was the fifth negative result in six weeks.
Consumer gloom
Stocks fell on Friday after a monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment recorded the lowest reading since November 2022. The University of Michigan’s survey found that respondents have increasingly come to expect inflation to worsen. Moreover, two-thirds of respondents expect unemployment to rise—the highest proportion since 2009.
Style rotation
An index of U.S. large-cap growth stocks lagged its value counterpart by a big margin, widening the value equity style’s year-to-date outperformance following growth’s market leadership in 2024. The growth index was down about 2.6% for the week while a value index slipped 0.4%. Year to date, the growth index was down 10.0% versus a 1.2% gain for its value peer.
Wrong-way inflation
Inflation moved further above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target, based on Friday’s reading from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. Core PCE inflation excluding food and energy prices rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in February—above economists’ consensus forecast and above the previous month’s figure.
Gold shines
The price of gold climbed for the fourth week in a row, extending a year-to-date surge that briefly pushed the precious metal’s price above the $3,100-per-ounce level for the first time. On Friday afternoon, gold was trading around $3,116, up about 17% year to date.
GDP upgrade
The U.S. government’s latest estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth found that GDP expanded at a 2.4% annual rate—slightly above an earlier estimate but below the third quarter’s 3.1% figure. Looking ahead, the first estimate of first-quarter 2025 GDP is scheduled to be released on April 30, with most economists expecting annual growth to come in below 2.0%.
Tariff announcement
The new week could again put global trade tensions in focus, as President Donald Trump recently said that he expects to announce plans on Wednesday for the United States to impose reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners. The scope of any such tariff increases could hinge on trade reports that are due to the president on Tuesday from his secretaries of commerce and treasury.
Jobs ahead
The next monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether the moderate slowdown in jobs growth seen in the first two months of 2025 extended into March. In February, the economy generated 151,000 new jobs, up slightly from 125,000 in January but well below the figures in the last two months of 2024.
The week ahead: March 31-April 4
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 3/28/25 (%)
1 week
| -0.4 | -1.6 | -2.6 | Large | |
| -0.6 | -1.1 | -2.6 | Medium | |
| -1.1 | -1.6 | -2.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 1.2 | -5.0 | -10.0 | Large | |
| -2.8 | -3.9 | -6.9 | Medium | |
| -7.5 | -9.0 | -10.4 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 3/28/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 41,583.9 | -1.0 | -1.9 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 17,323.0 | -2.6 | -10.1 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,580.9 | -1.5 | -4.8 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,451.4 | -1.0 | 9.2 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 21.7 | 12.4 | 24.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -1.0 | 9.2 |
| Europe | -1.1 | 12.5 |
| France | -1.3 | 12.3 |
| Germany | -1.9 | 17.4 |
| Italy | -0.3 | 19.6 |
| Japan | -1.6 | 4.0 |
| Spain | -0.1 | 24.2 |
| Switzerland | -0.9 | 14.3 |
| U.K. | 0.6 | 10.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.9 | 4.8 |
| Brazil | -2.2 | 14.9 |
| China | -1.0 | 16.8 |
| India | 0.9 | -2.9 |
| Indonesia | 6.3 | -11.0 |
| Korea | -3.1 | 9.3 |
| Mexico | -0.2 | 10.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -2.8 | -8.6 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.5 | -4.8 |
| Communication services | -3.2 | -6.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.1 | -13.6 |
| Consumer staples | 1.7 | 3.5 |
| Energy | 0.8 | 9.0 |
| Financials | -0.2 | 2.2 |
| Healthcare | -1.0 | 5.6 |
| Industrials | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| Information tech | -3.7 | -12.7 |
| Materials | -0.3 | 1.7 |
| Real estate | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| Utilities | -0.2 | 3.8 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 3/28/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.8 | Medium | |
| -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.2 | 2.3 | 3.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | Medium | |
| 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 3/28/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.91 | 4.23 | -32 |
| 10 Yr | 4.26 | 4.57 | -31 |
| 30 Yr | 4.64 | 4.79 | -15 |
| 2-10 spread | 34 | 34 | 0 |
| 10-30 spread | 38 | 22 | 16 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.0 | 2.5 |
| Bank loans | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Convertible | -1.1 | -0.9 |
| Corporate | -0.1 | 2.4 |
| High yield | -0.5 | 1.0 |
| MBS | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| Municipal | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| Preferreds | -1.5 | -0.1 |
| TIPS | 0.5 | 3.7 |
| Treasury | 0.0 | 2.6 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.2 | 5.1 |
| EMD USD | -0.5 | 2.3 |
| Global Agg | 0.0 | 2.5 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.1 | 2.5 |
| Multiverse | 0.0 | 2.5 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 0.5 | 8.2 |
| Oil (WTI) | 1.7 | -0.9 |
| Gold | 2.2 | 16.8 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.1 | 3.8 |
| AUD | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| CAD | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| CHF | 0.3 | 2.9 |
| EUR | 0.1 | 4.5 |
| GBP | 0.4 | 3.3 |
| JPY | -0.9 | 4.6 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 2.3 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.7 | 5.4 | 1.88 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.73 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.55 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.5 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 4.71 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 2/28/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 25.4 | 189.6 | 16,135.1 |
| Sector Equity | -8.1 | -8.6 | 1,435.0 |
| Allocation | -5.5 | -78.6 | 1,430.9 |
| International Equity | -3.3 | -14.1 | 4,280.5 |
| Alternative | -0.7 | 48.4 | 278.3 |
| Commodities | 6.4 | 11.5 | 203.9 |
| Taxable Bond | 57.0 | 494.3 | 5,926.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.7 | 49.6 | 944.1 |
| Total all long-term funds | 81.0 | 709.6 | 30,963.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 2/28/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 33.5 | 268.3 | 8,533.8 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 16.7 | 81.0 | 418.2 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 9.5 | 118.5 | 1,483.0 |
| Multisector Bond | 6.1 | 64.9 | 367.2 |
| Commodities Focused | 5.6 | 10.9 | 160.3 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 2/28/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign Large Growth | -5.4 | -27.3 | 472.4 |
| Small Blend | -3.8 | 13.6 | 616.0 |
| Digital Assets | -3.1 | 36.5 | 113.7 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -3.0 | -24.9 | 337.5 |
| Global Large-Stock Blend | -2.8 | -0.4 | 318.0 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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