Weekly Market Recap
Week ended August 29
Market-moving news
Modest moves
The major U.S. stock indexes finished fractionally lower for the week after the market’s midweek gains were offset by a Friday pullback entering the holiday weekend. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed above the 6,500-point level for the first time, but it slipped back below that threshold the next day.
Inflation uptick
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation edged upward to the highest level in five months. Friday’s report on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index found that core inflation rose at a 2.9% annual rate in July, excluding typically volatile energy and food costs. Factoring in those categories, the annual rate was a more modest 2.6%.
GDP upgrade
The U.S. economy expanded in the spring at a slightly faster rate than initially estimated. Thursday’s update pegged the second quarter’s annual GDP growth at 3.3%, up from a 3.0% estimate released a month earlier. That growth marks a turnaround after the first quarter’s slight GDP contraction. Recent results have been skewed by elevated tariffs, which fueled shifts in the flow of imports relative to domestic goods.
Gold record
The price of gold futures rose for the second week in a row and reached a record high of as much as $3,518 per ounce in Friday afternoon trading—up more than 31% year to date. Much of the week’s gain came after a Friday morning release of inflation data.
Fed rate outlook
Bond market trading continued to support recently growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut its benchmark rate at its two-day meeting ending September 17. As of Friday afternoon, prices in rate futures markets implied an 88.9% probability that the Fed would cut by a quarter point, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. For more details on the outlook, explore the latest thinking from our co-chief investment strategists here.
Earnings scorecard
Companies in the S&P 500 posted an average earnings gain of 11.7% over the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet data from the recently concluded second-quarter earnings season. That result marked the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth but was a modest slowdown from the previous quarter’s 12.9% year-over-year growth rate. Communication services posted a 46.0% earnings gain, the highest among all 11 sectors.
Housing data
A report on sales of new homes underscored recent weakness in the U.S. housing market, as sales of new homes slipped 0.6% in July. A separate report indicated a recent slowdown in home price growth, and another release showed that the average 30-year mortgage rate slipped to its lowest level in 10 months.
Jobs ahead
A monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether a recent weakening trend for the labor market extended into August. In July, the economy generated 73,000 jobs, and initial estimates for the previous two months’ gains were revised downward by a combined 258,000. As a result, totals for April and May were just 19,000 and 14,000, respectively.
The week ahead: September 1-5
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 8/29/25 (%)
1 week
| -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Large | |
| -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.8 | Medium | |
| 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 10.0 | 10.8 | 11.3 | Large | |
| 8.1 | 9.4 | 13.1 | Medium | |
| 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 8/29/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 45,544.9 | -0.1 | 8.3 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 21,455.6 | -0.2 | 11.6 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,460.3 | -0.1 | 10.8 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,722.4 | -1.4 | 23.3 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.4 | 8.5 | -11.5 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -1.4 | 23.3 |
| Europe | -2.0 | 25.7 |
| France | -3.5 | 21.6 |
| Germany | -2.0 | 34.3 |
| Italy | -2.7 | 45.5 |
| Japan | -0.9 | 18.1 |
| Spain | -3.1 | 55.5 |
| Switzerland | -0.4 | 23.2 |
| U.K. | -1.5 | 24.7 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.6 | 19.6 |
| Brazil | 2.6 | 33.1 |
| China | -0.6 | 29.2 |
| India | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| Indonesia | -4.2 | -4.0 |
| Korea | 0.4 | 42.6 |
| Mexico | -1.6 | 35.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 1.8 | 15.7 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.1 | 10.8 |
| Communication services | 0.7 | 17.9 |
| Consumer discretionary | -0.5 | 2.0 |
| Consumer staples | -1.7 | 5.5 |
| Energy | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| Financials | 0.8 | 12.6 |
| Healthcare | -0.6 | 0.8 |
| Industrials | -0.8 | 16.1 |
| Information tech | -0.1 | 14.0 |
| Materials | 0.1 | 11.6 |
| Real estate | 0.0 | 4.4 |
| Utilities | -2.0 | 13.0 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 8/29/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.6 | Medium | |
| 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 3.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | High | Credit quality |
| 3.7 | 5.3 | 4.3 | Medium | |
| 5.8 | 6.2 | 7.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 8/29/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.61 | 4.23 | -62 |
| 10 Yr | 4.22 | 4.57 | -35 |
| 30 Yr | 4.92 | 4.79 | 13 |
| 2-10 spread | 61 | 34 | 27 |
| 10-30 spread | 70 | 22 | 48 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.2 | 5.0 |
| Bank loans | 0.2 | 4.3 |
| Convertible | 0.7 | 12.2 |
| Corporate | 0.1 | 6.8 |
| High yield | 0.4 | 6.2 |
| MBS | 0.3 | 5.5 |
| Municipal | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Preferreds | -1.0 | 4.1 |
| TIPS | 0.3 | 6.4 |
| Treasury | 0.2 | 4.5 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.1 | 16.9 |
| EMD USD | 0.1 | 8.7 |
| Global Agg | 0.2 | 7.2 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.2 | 8.6 |
| Multiverse | 0.1 | 7.3 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 1.2 | 7.1 |
| Oil (WTI) | 0.4 | -1.0 |
| Gold | 2.9 | 31.0 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.8 | 5.7 |
| CAD | 0.8 | 4.8 |
| CHF | 0.3 | 13.4 |
| EUR | -0.1 | 13.0 |
| GBP | -0.1 | 7.9 |
| JPY | 0.0 | 7.0 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.4 | 2.0 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.2 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 1.79 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.2 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 2.72 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.61 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.2 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.72 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 7/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -61.4 | 35.9 | 16,759.6 |
| Sector Equity | 6.8 | -29.8 | 1,498.7 |
| Allocation | -3.9 | -69.5 | 1,477.7 |
| International Equity | 11.0 | 6.7 | 4,754.3 |
| Alternative | 12.9 | 59.9 | 293.9 |
| Commodities | 2.1 | 25.6 | 248.7 |
| Taxable Bond | 54.9 | 445.2 | 6,105.1 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.7 | 49.0 | 934.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | 31.2 | 557.0 | 32,514.4 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 19.6 | 100.9 | 1,520.6 |
| Digital Assets | 11.4 | 49.8 | 190.8 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 7.9 | 104.1 | 465.0 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 7.5 | 67.8 | 1,943.3 |
| Large Blend | 7.3 | 226.7 | 8,897.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Cap Blend | -37.5 | -26.6 | 702.6 |
| Small Blend | -9.2 | -17.6 | 603.3 |
| Large Growth | -8.6 | -51.1 | 3,411.5 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5.0 | 4.5 | 119.5 |
| Large Value | -4.3 | -10.6 | 1,952.3 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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