Viewpoints about federal reserve
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Probability of an interest-rate cut rises, but it’s unlikely to be in July
The latest Fed meeting offered hints about the future trajectory of rates, and we're standing by our view that the next change made will be a stimulative cut—it just may not happen as soon as some investors might hope. Read our complete analysis.
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Market history lessons: circumstances change—behavior patterns don’t
Circumstances change, but behavioral patterns endure. Learn how lessons from the past can inform your portfolio’s present and prospective positioning.
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What shutdown? What slowdown? New questions from the Fed and jobs report
Between the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and today’s jobs report, investors have had quite a bit of news to digest this week. We take a closer look.
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Risk aversion rises as a flattening yield curve flirts with inversion
After flattening further, the U.S. Treasury yield curve is now flirting with inversion, a recession harbinger. Find out what investors should do to prepare.
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Higher rates and protectionism will shrink manufacturers' profit margins
The dramatic increase in manufacturers’ profit margins over the past quarter century may be nearing an end, as rising interest rates and trade tensions weigh on the sector.
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How central banks distort the predictive power of the yield curve
There's a good chance of an inverted yield curve by the end of 2019—but does it matter? We take a closer look at the yield curve's predictive powers and why this time may really be different.
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How to value a currency: a closer look at the opportunities in FX markets
Currency markets are an underappreciated risk—and opportunity—when it comes to international investing. We take a closer look at the factors that drive currencies' performance.
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Global growth divergence eclipses last year’s synchronized recovery
We’re near the point of maximum optimism in the cycle. This is about as good as it gets for financial markets—find out the implications for investors.
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Deregulation and the coming boom in regional bank M&A
A decade after the financial crisis, banks are finally seeing some light at the end of the regulatory tunnel. We explore the resulting opportunities.
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The Fed’s balance sheet represents an underappreciated risk right now
What’s the greatest underappreciated risk plaguing markets today? See what’s most worrisome to Adam C. Rudd, CFA, Standard Life Investments.
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