Market outlook
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Show them the money: Three-minute macro
Corporate profits are surging, but workers aren’t really sharing in this profit boom—and that’s made even worse by rising prices. Our eyes are also on inventory levels that are building, and which could be a danger in the wake of rising interest rates.
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Patience is a virtue for today’s fixed-income investors
Now that the Fed has begun to lift interest rates, we see two distinct phases ahead for fixed-income investors: before and after a potential yield curve inversion. Navigating this tightening cycle will require a thoughtful approach.
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No shortage of risks: Three-minute macro
The Russian-Ukraine conflict, persistently high inflation, and the Fed’s long-awaited rate hike have investors scared, while food prices are increasing at the fastest rate in four decades.
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Five reasons why U.S. inflation could get worse
We had expected prices pressure to begin to ease after hitting a peak in February or March; however, the spike in food and energy prices as a result of the conflict in Ukraine means that prices could remain elevated for longer.
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Incorporating the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a global macro outlook
For the global economy, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its repercussions amount to a stagflationary shock. We assess the situation's impact on our medium-term macro outlook.
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Russia invades Ukraine: what's next for the markets?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent geopolitical shock waves across the globe. We take a closer look at the implications for the stock and bond markets.
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Bond investors go green: Three-minute macro
Green bonds are flying off the shelves thanks to an investor push for more sustainable portfolios. We also shed light on how price earnings ratios have done during past rate tightening cycles and why Chinese credit growth may not be a boon for the global economy.
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What is quantitative tightening and why it matters?
The Fed is poised to announce plans to begin quantitative tightening soon. We examine how markets reacted the last time the U.S. central bank moved to reduce the size of its balance sheet.
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U.S. stocks flirt with correction territory
U.S. stocks have had a tough first few weeks of 2022, at one point down nearly 10%. We discuss why we believe fundamentals remain a tailwind for equities and what the implications are for portfolio construction.
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Economic road map for 2022: from stagflation to steadier growth
Shifting inflation expectations, supply chain bottlenecks, and increasingly hawkish central banks. We examine how a rapidly evolving macro landscape might affect growth in the year ahead.
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