Market outlook
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It’s just a phase: Three-minute macro
Inflation is top of mind and with good cause: It’ll be tough to call as it likely will go through ups and downs over the next few years. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s language has market participants on their toes, while Asian exports should heavily affect the economy in the region.
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Market outlook—looking beyond the reopening
Optimism about the lifting of lockdown restrictions has been offset by concerns about inflation. How might it affect investment returns?
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Three-minute macro: mean reversion
As we head into the reopening and slowly return to a more normal life, the concept of mean reversion should play a big role in the coming months. In the United States, we expect COVID-19-affected inflation categories to mean-revert while we're getting strong signals from Europe that the economic recovery is under way. In Asia, however, a resurgence of COVID-19 led to a decline in manufacturing activity.
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Midcycle investing: a guide to portfolio construction
Different phases of the economic cycle can call for a different investment approach. We put current conditions in context and offer ideas for tilting portfolios toward midcycle opportunities.
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U.S. inflation outlook—10 things to monitor
As concerns about U.S. inflation grow, investors are scrutinizing economic data for clues on what could happen next. We highlight 10 factors to watch.
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With higher taxes looming, how should investors position?
We look back at several instances of capital-gains tax increases to see how the market performed before and after the increases. We also review several different scenarios for tax increases and suggest where investors may best focus their portfolios now.
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Navigating the coming data distortion
Analyzing economic data in coming months isn't likely to be straight forward. Here's a rough guide.
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Three-minute macro: timing is everything
In the coming months, we expect the market to emphasize the timing of economic inflection points. We also detail our cautiously optimistic view on REITs and highlight that differing COVID-19 vaccination rates are making country picking in emerging markets even more crucial in this month's edition of "Three-minute macro."
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Fed policy: What comes next?
A review of Federal Reserve policy objectives and some of the key financial data the Fed examines in making policy, and a view on where we stand now.
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Three-minute macro: what’s driving earnings?
The drivers of equity market performance so far this year look very different than last. We’re also mindful of a potential cooling in the housing market, while we expect major financial institutions to keep track of inequality issues going forward.
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