Portfolio Intelligence podcast | What energy shocks mean for markets and investors
With energy-driven volatility and shifting inflation expectations shaping markets, our Co-Chief Investment Strategists Emily R. Roland, CIMA, and Matthew D. Miskin, CFA, join host John Bryson for a timely discussion. They examine the macro landscape and discuss how today’s uncertainty and volatility impact different asset classes.
As markets navigate energy supply disruptions and mixed economic data, Matt and Emily join the podcast to provide a timely, broad market update.
They share their perspectives on how oil supply dynamics are influencing inflation and growth expectations, and where they see potential opportunities across equities, fixed income, and alternatives.
1 What’s driving the markets at this moment?
Matt: We’re experiencing a historic oil supply shock. The Strait of Hormuz—which accounts for about 20% of the global oil supply—has been shut off. We’re seeing prices ratchet higher and energy supplies rationed globally. This has created an inflation shock across global markets, with hawkish comments from central banks globally leaning toward a higher-inflation environment. That caused bond yields to rise and hurt equities. While supply disruption remains, energy remains the biggest risk and a driver of volatility.
2 How do energy prices affect the broader economic outlook?
Emily: Central banks globally have discussed tighter policy without downgrading growth expectations. The recent U.S. Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections showed slightly higher GDP forecasts and no increase in unemployment rate estimates. We think higher inflation does punish growth and, eventually, expect a slower-growth story. Currently, the U.S. economy is holding up, but cracks are forming in the labor market. We think, ultimately, there’s a lid on inflation due to weakening demand.
3 Where do you see opportunities in this environment?
Matt: One of the sectors we like is non-U.S. industrials, supported by defense spending. If the dollar strengthens further, we prefer U.S. equities—particularly mid-cap and mid-cap value, which are relatively cheap and higher quality.
Emily: We also like infrastructure, long‑short equity strategies, and multi‑alternative approaches. Infrastructure offers defensive characteristics and benefits from AI‑driven power demand.
About the Portfolio Intelligence podcast
The Portfolio Intelligence podcast features interviews with asset allocation experts, portfolio construction specialists, and investment veterans from across Manulife John Hancock’s multimanager network. Hosted by John Bryson, head of investment consulting at Manulife John Hancock Investments, the dynamic discussion explores ideas advisors can use today to build their business while helping their clients pursue better investment outcomes.
Important Disclosure
Important Disclosure
This podcast is being brought to you by John Hancock Investment Management Distributors LLC, member FINRA, SIPC. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, are subject to change as market and other conditions warrant, and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation regarding any specific product or security. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy discussed will be successful or achieve any particular level of results. Any economic or market performance information is historical and is not indicative of future results, and no forecasts are guaranteed. Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of principal.
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Transcript
Transcript
John Bryson:
Hello and welcome to the Portfolio Intelligence podcast. I’m your host, John Bryson, head of investment consulting and education savings at Manulife, John Hancock Investments. Today is March 25th, 2026, and it’s been a very busy stretch in the markets. Energy prices have been volatile, economic data have been mixed, and expectations for the Fed seem to change almost by the week or the day.
John Bryson:
All that leaves investors asking the same question: what should we actually focus on right now? To help us sort through it, I’ve invited Matt Miskin and Emily Roland, our co‑chief investment strategists here at Manulife Investment Management, to talk about what’s going on in economies and markets around the world. Matt, Emily—welcome.
Emily Roland:
Hey, John. Thanks for having us.
Matt Miskin:
Yeah, thanks for having us, John.
John Bryson:
You got it. Matt, I want to start with you. Walk us through what’s going on in markets right now.
Matt Miskin:
At the end of the day, we are experiencing a pretty historic oil supply shock. The Strait of Hormuz—which about 20% of the global oil supply runs through—has been shut off. That is a lot of oil, and we are seeing prices ratchet higher. We almost hit about $100 per barrel on WTI.
We’re seeing rationing of energy supplies all over the world, but also reserve releases being brought to market. Countries are trying to get as much oil as they can into supply, but it’s being met with volatility in prices. What this has done across global markets is create an inflation shock.
Central banks around the world have already had their March meetings and leaned against that higher inflation impulse with hawkish commentary. That caused bond yields to rise and hurt equities. The S&P 500 peak‑to‑trough decline is around 6% as of March 25th.
Markets are focused on one thing right now—energy prices. While that supply disruption remains, it’s logical that energy is the biggest risk and a driver of volatility.
John Bryson:
Emily, with energy prices swinging so much and an inflation shock underway, is this more of a short‑term inflation story or a longer‑term growth issue?
Emily Roland:
It’s a great question. Right now, investors—and central bankers—are focused on inflation. Central banks globally have talked about potentially tighter policy while not really downgrading growth expectations.
The Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections showed slightly higher GDP forecasts and no increase in unemployment estimates, which stood out to us.
Eventually, higher inflation does punish growth. There’s an old adage that the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. Over time, higher prices lead to demand destruction—people buy less. We saw that in 2008 and 2022.
We’re starting to see demand slow overseas. The economy is holding in okay, but cracks in the labor market are forming. Ultimately, we think there’s a lid on inflation due to weakening demand.
John Bryson:
Matt, if you were in the Fed’s shoes, what’s the bigger challenge—balancing inflation risk or avoiding overtightening as growth cools?
Matt Miskin:
In our view, it’s the growth impact. Raising rates doesn’t create more oil or solve a supply shock—it just hurts consumers.
We think the Fed is likely to pause, stay on hold for several months, and potentially cut by the end of the year. Prior to this shock, housing inflation had cooled, wage growth was modest, and oil prices were relatively tame.
For bond investors, income matters most. We entered the year with roughly 4–5% yields on high‑quality bonds, and that income provides a strong cushion. If the Fed does cut later this year, you may also get some price appreciation.
John Bryson:
Emily, broadening out to global economies—what are PMIs telling us right now?
Emily Roland:
PMIs give us a sense of underlying economic health. Anything above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.
Preliminary March PMIs showed modest expansion. The eurozone composite came in just above 50, with services cooling and manufacturing improving. The U.S. composite was stronger at 51.4.
One concern was prices paid, which ticked up. That suggests a hint of stagflation—slower growth with slightly higher inflation. PMIs haven’t been perfect for asset allocation recently, but that inflation signal is something we’re watching closely.
John Bryson:
Matt, where do you see opportunities in international investing versus the U.S.?
Matt Miskin:
Asia and Europe are more exposed to the oil and gas shock, while the U.S. is energy‑independent. The dollar has strengthened somewhat, which makes international equities more challenging.
We’re emphasizing quality internationally—higher earnings growth and defensive traits. We like industrials abroad, supported by CapEx and defense spending. Financials and value may struggle in risk‑off environments.
If the dollar strengthens further, we prefer U.S. equities—particularly mid‑cap and mid‑cap value, which are relatively cheap, higher quality, and heavily exposed to industrials.
John Bryson:
Emily, let’s talk alternatives. What role should they play right now?
Emily Roland:
One of the biggest challenges is finding new sources of return. We’ve had multiple years of strong equity gains, pushing consumer net worth to around $173 trillion.
Consumers own more stocks than real estate for the first time since the late 1990s, which has supported spending. We remain constructive on equities but want alternative sources of return and diversification—especially when stock‑bond correlations rise.
We like infrastructure, long‑short equity strategies, and multi‑alternative approaches. Infrastructure offers defensive traits, earnings growth, and benefits from AI‑driven power demand.
John Bryson:
Volatile markets come and go. Long‑term investing and thoughtful portfolio construction matter most. If you want help reviewing your portfolio, reach out to John Hancock Investments. Matt and Emily regularly share insights on LinkedIn.
John Bryson:
Matt, Emily—thanks for joining us. And thanks to everyone listening.
This podcast is brought to you by John Hancock Investment Management Distributors, LLC, member FINRA. Views expressed are those of the speakers and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal.