August 18, 2023
Positioning for uncertain markets with high-quality fixed income
Discover John Hancock Bond and Investment Grade Bond Funds
High inflation and higher interest rates: a one-two punch for the economy
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic—amid a raft of government stimulus designed to prop up the economy—inflation began to creep higher, eventually topping 9%, a level not seen in more than 40 years. The U.S. Federal Reserve responded by aggressively raising interest rates. While inflation has declined, the damage may have already been done: The economy has been steadily slowing for months and a recession now appears increasingly likely.
Post pandemic, rising inflation contributed to a meaningful economic slowdown
YoY change in the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) vs. inflation (consumer price index), in %
Source: The Conference Board, as of 5/31/23. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See endnotes for index definitions.
The bond markets are signaling more trouble ahead
Investors don’t appear particularly optimistic about the Fed’s chances of success. Typically, bonds—especially U.S. Treasuries—with longer maturities offer higher yields than short-dated bonds. When that ceases to be the case, the yield curve is said to be inverted—as is the case today. The difference between 2- and 10-year Treasuries has been negative (meaning the yield on 2-year bills has been higher) since July 2022, and that inversion has historically been a reliable predictor of a looming recession.
The yield curve today is significantly inverted
10-year Treasury constant maturity minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of 6/30/23.
Moderate inflation and elevated interest rates aren't necessarily bad for bonds
Higher inflation and higher rates haven’t always been bad news for bonds. For one, such an environment is generally correlated with higher coupons, which is a significant driver of total returns. Since 1990, in years when inflation rose at a rate of 3% to 5%, many segments of the fixed-income market posted positive returns. At the top of the list: core and core-plus strategies. It’s worth noting that in years with significantly higher rates of inflation, bond market performance has been much more volatile. Since 1970, there have been 10 years when inflation topped 6% (including 2022); core-plus strategies posted declines in four of those years, while core bonds lost ground in three.
Returns (%) in years when CPI was 3%–5% year over year


Source: Morningstar Direct, as of 12/31/22. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See endnotes for index definitions.
Total return from Treasury yield inversion to end of subsequent recession

Source: Morningstar Direct, as of 12/31/22. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See endnotes for index definitions.

Source: Morningstar Direct and bankrate.com, 2023. Core bond and core-plus bond represent Morningstar category averages. A Morningstar category average represents a group of funds with similar investment objectives and strategies, and the category average return is the equal-weighted return of all funds per category. Morningstar places funds in certain categories based on their historical portfolio holdings. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of a loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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An experienced investment team
- The lead portfolio managers have been working together, applying the same investment approach, for more than 16 years
- The team draws on the global scale and resources of Manulife Investment Management, but has full autonomy over investment decisions
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A process built on fundamental research
- Security selection and sector allocation are intentionally the primary drivers of relative performance
- Active duration positioning and other macroeconomic stances are not a meaningful part of the funds’ performance profile
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A consistent long-term track record
- JHBIX has outperformed the intermediate core-plus category average 95% of the time over the rolling 5-year time period1
- TIUSX has outperformed the intermediate core category average 100% of the time over the rolling 5-year time period2
Fixed-income asset classes 10-year risk/return profile (6/30/23)
Source: eVestment, Manulife Investment Management, as of 6/30/23. See endnotes for index definitions.
Managed by Manulife Investment Management
Established asset manager with global resources and expertise extending across equity, fixed-income, and alternative investments as well as asset allocation strategies
Fund | Morningstar category | Use for |
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JHBIX
Bond Fund Class I
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Morningstar category Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | Use for Diversifying income holdings |
Morningstar category Intermediate Core Bond | Use for High-quality income opportunities |
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Index definitions
The Composite Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) is published monthly by The Conference Board and tracks 10 economic components whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change of prices over time by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. U.S. aggregate is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. U.S. government is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Government Bond Index, which tracks the performance of U.S. Treasury and government agency bonds. EM sovereign (US$) is represented by the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) Global Index, which is a market-capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated Brady bonds, Eurobonds, and traded loans issued by sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities. U.S. investment-grade corp is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index, which tracks the performance of the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. U.S. high-yield corp is represented by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Bank of America (BofA) U.S. High Yield Index, which tracks the performance of below-investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market and includes issues with a credit rating of BBB or below. EM corp (US$) is represented by the J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Diversified Index, which tracks U.S. dollar-denominated debt issued by emerging-market corporations. U.S. CMBS is represented by the Bloomberg CMBS ERISA-Eligible Index, which tracks the performance of investment-grade commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) eligible under the underwriter’s exemption. U.S. ABS is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Index, which tracks the performance of three subsectors—credit and charge cards, autos, and utilities. The index includes pass-through, bullet, and controlled amortization structures. U.S. MBS is represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index, which tracks 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by the mortgage pools of Ginnie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae. The J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index tracks U.S. dollar-denominated debt issued by emerging-market corporations. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
1 Morningstar Direct, as of 6/30/23. Time period: 10/1/01–6/30/23. The Morningstar intermediate core-plus bond category is a relevant peer group of intermediate-term fixed-income mutual funds.
2 Morningstar Direct, as of 6/30/23. Time period: 8/1/03–6/30/23. The Morningstar intermediate core category is a relevant peer group of intermediate-term fixed-income mutual funds.
No forecasts are guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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