Weekly Market Recap
Week ended May 9
Market-moving news
Sideways market
Stocks traded in a narrow range most of the week as the major U.S. indexes closed down fractionally overall, marking a pause in the wake of recently elevated volatility. Despite its gains in recent weeks, the S&P 500 remained nearly 8% below its record high reached in mid-February.
Trade movements
U.S. stocks fell on Monday and Tuesday, then reversed course the next two days as news of trade talks lifted investor sentiment. The United States and the United Kingdom announced a framework aimed at reaching a comprehensive trade agreement, and U.S. and Chinese officials announced plans for negotiations in the wake of recent tariff increases.
Fed’s uncertain outlook
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for its third meeting in a row, extending its wait-and-see policy approach, The Fed issued a statement noting that “the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen,” and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that it’s “not at all clear” what the central bank should do next.
Oil volatility
The price of U.S. crude oil on Monday briefly sank below $56 per barrel―the lowest level in more than four years―before climbing back to around $61 on Friday. Despite its late-week rally, oil remained well below the $80 level that it reached four months earlier. Prices have recently been buffeted by the shifting outlook over tariffs and the global economic outlook.
Earnings finish
Earnings continued to improve overall entering the final stretch of earnings season, with 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported first-quarter results as of Friday. Net income was expected to rise an average of 13.4%, based on reports already released and forecasts for the relatively small number of companies that hadn’t yet reported, according to FactSet. At the end of the previous week, the projected earnings growth rate was 12.8%.
Gold rally resumes
The price of gold resumed its sharp year-to-date climb after retreating the previous two weeks. The precious metal rose sharply on Monday and Tuesday, reaching as high as $3,444 per ounce at one point and close to the record high set on April 21. On Friday afternoon, gold was trading around $3,350, up more than 3% for the week.
Bitcoin reclaims $100K
The price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency climbed back above the $100,000 threshold on Thursday for the first time in more than three months. Bitcoin was trading around $103,000 on Friday afternoon, up around 6% for the week and well above a recent low of around $77,000 reached a month earlier.
CPI ahead
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Tuesday will show whether a recent trend of moderating inflation extended into April as tariffs and global trade tensions rose. Last month’s CPI report showed an annual rate of 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% the previous month.
The week ahead: May 12-16
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 5/9/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | Large | |
| 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | Medium | |
| 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 0.5 | -3.3 | -6.4 | Large | |
| -2.1 | -1.5 | 0.0 | Medium | |
| -8.8 | -8.9 | -9.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 5/9/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 41,249.4 | -0.1 | -2.5 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 17,928.9 | -0.3 | -7.0 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,659.9 | -0.4 | -3.3 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,530.2 | 0.0 | 13.6 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 21.9 | -3.5 | 25.9 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.0 | 13.6 |
| Europe | -0.4 | 17.3 |
| France | -0.7 | 16.0 |
| Germany | 0.8 | 28.4 |
| Italy | 1.7 | 27.6 |
| Japan | 0.9 | 6.8 |
| Spain | 0.1 | 33.3 |
| Switzerland | -1.7 | 16.8 |
| U.K. | -0.6 | 12.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.5 | 6.9 |
| Brazil | 1.4 | 22.2 |
| China | 0.5 | 13.1 |
| India | -2.5 | -0.9 |
| Indonesia | -0.7 | -6.1 |
| Korea | 1.0 | 12.2 |
| Mexico | 1.8 | 24.0 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 3.1 | -2.2 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.4 | -3.3 |
| Communication services | -2.4 | -4.2 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.8 | -11.5 |
| Consumer staples | -1.0 | 5.3 |
| Energy | 0.5 | -2.7 |
| Financials | 0.1 | 3.6 |
| Healthcare | -4.2 | -3.1 |
| Industrials | 1.1 | 3.6 |
| Information tech | 0.3 | -8.0 |
| Materials | -0.4 | 1.4 |
| Real estate | -0.7 | 3.2 |
| Utilities | 0.6 | 6.8 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 5/9/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.7 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 2.0 | 2.6 | -0.6 | Medium | |
| 2.3 | 1.5 | -0.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 5/9/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.88 | 4.23 | -35 |
| 10 Yr | 4.38 | 4.57 | -19 |
| 30 Yr | 4.84 | 4.79 | 5 |
| 2-10 spread | 50 | 34 | 16 |
| 10-30 spread | 46 | 22 | 24 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.2 | 2.2 |
| Bank loans | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Convertible | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Corporate | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| High yield | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| MBS | 0.0 | 2.5 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | -0.8 |
| Preferreds | 0.4 | -1.4 |
| TIPS | 0.0 | 3.4 |
| Treasury | -0.3 | 2.4 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.6 | 9.0 |
| EMD USD | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Global Agg | -0.5 | 4.7 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.6 | 6.2 |
| Multiverse | -0.4 | 4.6 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 1.4 | 5.6 |
| Oil (WTI) | 4.8 | -11.7 |
| Gold | 3.2 | 26.0 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -0.1 | 6.2 |
| AUD | -0.7 | 3.7 |
| CAD | -1.1 | 3.3 |
| CHF | -0.7 | 9.3 |
| EUR | -0.9 | 8.8 |
| GBP | -0.1 | 6.2 |
| JPY | -0.7 | 8.4 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 2.2 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 1.63 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 2.55 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.35 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.57 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 4/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 18.1 | 210.1 | 15,061.1 |
| Sector Equity | -16.6 | -36.0 | 1,334.3 |
| Allocation | -9.2 | -79.2 | 1,390.2 |
| International Equity | -8.1 | -23.8 | 4,376.6 |
| Alternative | 3.9 | 41.0 | 224.1 |
| Commodities | 4.2 | 21.1 | 237.0 |
| Taxable Bond | -42.9 | 398.7 | 5,888.5 |
| Municipal Bond | -5.9 | 41.9 | 929.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | -41.2 | 614.3 | 29,821.2 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 4/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 35.6 | 288.4 | 8,040.0 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 17.0 | 104.6 | 451.2 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 8.6 | 18.9 | 93.7 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 4.7 | 60.9 | 1,813.2 |
| Short-Term Bond | 4.2 | 8.6 | 527.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 4/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | -22.0 | 72.1 | 1,467.7 |
| High Yield Bond | -11.1 | 22.4 | 360.6 |
| Bank Loan | -10.1 | -3.7 | 95.0 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | -9.4 | 34.0 | 843.7 |
| Long Government | -6.2 | 16.0 | 171.4 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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