Weekly Market Recap
Week ended July 11
Market-moving news
Flattening out
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished with fractional weekly declines as they slipped from record levels set the previous week. The modest setback followed a two-week run of positive results that sent the S&P 500 more than 5% higher.
Tariff timetable
The Trump administration delayed its initial plans to impose higher tariffs on dozens of trading partners beginning Wednesday, July 9. A 90-day tariff negotiation period was extended to August 1 as the administration continued talks with several countries while also announcing plans for higher tariffs on imports from nations such as Canada and Brazil.
Earnings ahead
As major U.S. banks prepared to open quarterly earnings season in mid-July, analysts were forecasting that second-quarter earnings for all companies in the S&P 500 rose by an average of 4.8% overall, according to FactSet. If that turns out to be the actual rate, it would be the slowest earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2023.
Metals rally
The price of copper surged 13% to a record high on Tuesday after the Trump administration announced a 50% tariff on copper imports to the United States. Silver futures also rallied, posting a weekly gain of around 6% as the metal climbed to the highest price since mid-2011.
Bitcoin record
The price of the most widely traded cryptocurrency climbed above $118,000 for the first time on Friday, posting a weekly gain of around 9% in afternoon trading. Less than three weeks earlier, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $100,000.
Yield volatility
Yields of U.S. government bonds fell on Wednesday after the release of minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting lifted expectations for interest-rate cuts this year. However, yields climbed on Friday amid the latest escalation over tariffs. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury was trading around 4.42% on Friday afternoon, up from 4.35% at the end of the previous week.
Dividend slowdown
The growth rate for dividend payments by U.S. companies slowed sharply in this year’s second quarter. The $7.4 billion in net dividend increases recorded by companies in the S&P 500 was less than half of the first quarter’s $15.3 billion figure, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which attributed the slowdown to the uncertainty that companies face over elevated tariffs.
CPI ahead
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Tuesday could show whether a recent trend of mostly stable inflationary pressures extended into June despite elevated tariffs. Last month’s CPI report showed an annual rate of 2.4% in May—in line with expectations and slightly above a four-year low of 2.3% recorded in April.
The week ahead: July 14-18
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 7/11/25 (%)
1 week
| -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.2 | Large | |
| -0.1 | -0.5 | -1.8 | Medium | |
| -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 7.1 | 7.1 | 6.9 | Large | |
| 5.2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | Medium | |
| 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 7/11/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 44,371.5 | -1.0 | 5.3 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 20,585.5 | -0.1 | 7.0 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,259.8 | -0.3 | 7.2 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,648.4 | -0.2 | 19.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.4 | 0.0 | -5.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -0.2 | 19.7 |
| Europe | 0.4 | 24.6 |
| France | 0.9 | 23.4 |
| Germany | 1.1 | 36.4 |
| Italy | 0.5 | 36.7 |
| Japan | -2.4 | 7.9 |
| Spain | -0.5 | 44.0 |
| Switzerland | -0.4 | 21.4 |
| U.K. | 0.4 | 20.1 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.1 | 16.4 |
| Brazil | -6.3 | 24.1 |
| China | 0.9 | 18.2 |
| India | -1.8 | 4.9 |
| Indonesia | 2.4 | -1.8 |
| Korea | 2.3 | 41.7 |
| Mexico | -2.5 | 30.8 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 0.3 | 14.5 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.3 | 7.2 |
| Communication services | -1.1 | 9.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.1 | -2.1 |
| Consumer staples | -1.8 | 5.5 |
| Energy | 2.5 | 6.1 |
| Financials | -1.9 | 8.9 |
| Healthcare | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| Industrials | 0.6 | 14.8 |
| Information tech | 0.2 | 9.8 |
| Materials | -0.3 | 9.6 |
| Real estate | -0.7 | 3.2 |
| Utilities | 0.8 | 10.5 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 7/11/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | -0.1 | -1.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.5 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | High | Credit quality |
| 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.0 | Medium | |
| 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.0 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 7/11/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.89 | 4.23 | -34 |
| 10 Yr | 4.42 | 4.57 | -15 |
| 30 Yr | 4.95 | 4.79 | 16 |
| 2-10 spread | 53 | 34 | 19 |
| 10-30 spread | 54 | 22 | 32 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.4 | 3.2 |
| Bank loans | 0.2 | 3.4 |
| Convertible | 0.6 | 8.2 |
| Corporate | -0.6 | 4.4 |
| High yield | -0.3 | 4.5 |
| MBS | -0.3 | 3.5 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| Preferreds | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| TIPS | 0.0 | 4.4 |
| Treasury | -0.3 | 2.9 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -1.2 | 14.6 |
| EMD USD | -0.3 | 5.7 |
| Global Agg | -0.9 | 6.3 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -1.2 | 8.2 |
| Multiverse | -0.9 | 6.3 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 0.5 | 7.5 |
| Oil (WTI) | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Gold | 0.7 | 26.6 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -0.8 | 9.1 |
| AUD | 0.4 | 6.2 |
| CAD | -0.6 | 5.0 |
| CHF | -0.4 | 13.8 |
| EUR | -0.7 | 12.9 |
| GBP | -1.0 | 7.8 |
| JPY | -1.9 | 6.6 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.5 | 2.0 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 1.66 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 2.69 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.51 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.63 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 6/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -37.0 | 128.3 | 16,732.0 |
| Sector Equity | 3.1 | -30.3 | 1,471.2 |
| Allocation | -5.3 | -74.4 | 1,476.1 |
| International Equity | 11.3 | -17.3 | 4,781.9 |
| Alternative | 7.5 | 51.7 | 260.1 |
| Commodities | 6.2 | 26.2 | 245.3 |
| Taxable Bond | 51.1 | 442.0 | 6,062.7 |
| Municipal Bond | 5.7 | 49.5 | 930.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 42.8 | 615.0 | 32,390.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 20.1 | 90.3 | 1,506.0 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 8.8 | 65.4 | 1,964.2 |
| High Yield Bond | 7.1 | 28.8 | 385.5 |
| Digital Assets | 5.8 | 42.7 | 158.6 |
| Commodities Focused | 5.7 | 25.9 | 200.2 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -12.0 | -49.9 | 3,319.2 |
| Large Value | -6.3 | -4.5 | 1,949.2 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5.5 | 13.7 | 118.9 |
| Small Blend | -4.2 | 1.7 | 603.4 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -3.7 | -30.8 | 376.6 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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