Weekly Market Recap
Week ended June 27
Market-moving news
Record territory
The three major U.S. stock indexes surged around 4% for the week as falling oil prices and easing trade tensions boosted investor sentiment. The S&P 500 on Friday eclipsed a record high that it had set four months earlier while the NASDAQ topped a record reached last December. The Dow remained nearly 3% below its historic peak.
Falling yields
Yields of U.S. government bonds fell for the third week in a row, with yields of notes with shorter maturities posting the biggest declines. On Friday afternoon, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 4.28%, down from a recent peak of 4.60% on May 21.
Oil retreat
U.S. crude oil was trading around $65 per barrel on Friday afternoon, down 11% for the week as tensions in the Middle East eased, calming fears of a potential supply disruption. As recently as June 18, the price had surged above $75 per barrel
Trade talks
Ahead of a July 9 deadline on reciprocal tariffs, investor sentiment was lifted by updates from the Trump administration on negotiations with China and the European Union. However, the administration on Friday afternoon terminated trade talks with Canada in a dispute over dairy product tariffs and a digital services tax.
Shrinking economy
The U.S. economy's contraction in this year’s first quarter was deeper than initially estimated, based on an updated figure released on Thursday. GDP contracted at a 0.5% annual rate versus an earlier estimate of a 0.2% contraction. It’s the first negative GDP reading since the first quarter of 2022. In contrast, the economy expanded at a 2.4% rate in last year’s fourth quarter.
Market calm
At roughly the midpoint of 2025, an index that measures investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility was slightly below its year-end 2024 level and down sharply from its year-to-date high reached in early April. The Cboe Volatility Index closed at 16.3 on Friday, below its year-end level of 17.4 and down from 52.3 on April 8.
Wrong-way inflation
Inflation climbed further above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-term target, based on Friday’s reading from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. Core PCE inflation excluding food and energy prices rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in May—above economists’ consensus forecast and above the previous month’s 2.5% figure. On a month-to-month basis, inflation rose 0.2%, higher than expectations for 0.1%.
Jobs ahead
A monthly labor market report due out on Thursday—the day before a U.S. market closure due to the Independence Day holiday—will show whether a recent trend of moderate but better-than-expected jobs growth extended into June. In May, the economy generated 139,000 jobs, above consensus expectations for around 130,000. However, initial estimates for the previous two months’ gains were revised downward.
The week ahead: June 30-July 4
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 6/27/25 (%)
1 week
| 2.1 | 3.4 | 4.5 | Large | |
| 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | Medium | |
| 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | Large | |
| 2.7 | 4.3 | 9.1 | Medium | |
| -3.1 | -1.9 | -0.8 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 6/27/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 43,819.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 20,273.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,173.1 | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,653.7 | 3.1 | 19.9 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.3 | -20.9 | -6.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 3.1 | 19.9 |
| Europe | 3.1 | 24.0 |
| France | 3.1 | 21.4 |
| Germany | 4.5 | 35.6 |
| Italy | 3.3 | 36.0 |
| Japan | 3.6 | 11.1 |
| Spain | 2.5 | 43.1 |
| Switzerland | 3.2 | 21.0 |
| U.K. | 2.0 | 19.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 3.4 | 16.1 |
| Brazil | 1.0 | 26.7 |
| China | 2.7 | 18.4 |
| India | 3.7 | 7.1 |
| Indonesia | 2.0 | -3.0 |
| Korea | 2.6 | 38.5 |
| Mexico | 3.7 | 31.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 4.7 | 13.2 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Communication services | 6.2 | 10.8 |
| Consumer discretionary | 4.4 | -3.0 |
| Consumer staples | 0.4 | 5.9 |
| Energy | -3.5 | 1.4 |
| Financials | 3.4 | 8.3 |
| Healthcare | 1.5 | -1.7 |
| Industrials | 3.4 | 12.1 |
| Information tech | 4.7 | 7.0 |
| Materials | 2.3 | 5.9 |
| Real estate | -1.0 | 2.3 |
| Utilities | 1.4 | 9.0 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 6/27/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | Medium | |
| 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 2.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | High | Credit quality |
| 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | Medium | |
| 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 6/27/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.74 | 4.23 | -49 |
| 10 Yr | 4.28 | 4.57 | -29 |
| 30 Yr | 4.84 | 4.79 | 5 |
| 2-10 spread | 54 | 34 | 20 |
| 10-30 spread | 56 | 22 | 34 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.7 | 3.7 |
| Bank loans | 0.4 | 2.9 |
| Convertible | 2.0 | 6.3 |
| Corporate | 0.9 | 4.8 |
| High yield | 0.8 | 4.3 |
| MBS | 0.8 | 3.9 |
| Municipal | 0.2 | -0.4 |
| Preferreds | 0.6 | -0.8 |
| TIPS | 0.4 | 4.4 |
| Treasury | 0.6 | 3.5 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.6 | 14.4 |
| EMD USD | 1.1 | 5.4 |
| Global Agg | 1.0 | 7.0 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 1.1 | 9.1 |
| Multiverse | 1.0 | 7.0 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -3.5 | 6.4 |
| Oil (WTI) | -11.0 | -2.9 |
| Gold | -2.8 | 23.6 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 1.1 | 9.2 |
| AUD | 1.0 | 5.4 |
| CAD | 0.5 | 5.3 |
| CHF | 2.3 | 13.3 |
| EUR | 1.8 | 13.2 |
| GBP | 1.9 | 9.5 |
| JPY | 0.7 | 8.5 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.5 | 1.9 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5 | 1.64 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.0 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 2.60 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.44 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.51 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 5/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -18.0 | 157.7 | 15,985.0 |
| Sector Equity | -0.8 | -34.5 | 1,397.7 |
| Allocation | -4.6 | -76.6 | 1,431.1 |
| International Equity | 5.6 | -19.7 | 4,601.7 |
| Alternative | 6.0 | 45.0 | 248.0 |
| Commodities | -1.2 | 19.4 | 235.2 |
| Taxable Bond | 52.0 | 414.5 | 5,922.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 7.0 | 47.1 | 934.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 42.8 | 592.5 | 31,159.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 9.1 | 72.9 | 1,464.6 |
| Long Government | 7.1 | 20.4 | 174.4 |
| High Yield Bond | 6.5 | 23.1 | 372.2 |
| Digital Assets | 5.6 | 37.7 | 148.9 |
| Multisector Bond | 5.6 | 59.7 | 373.8 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | -6.6 | 249.9 | 8,531.3 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -4.7 | 17.9 | 104.5 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -2.8 | -36.2 | 490.8 |
| Moderate Allocation | -2.6 | -36.9 | 769.3 |
| Long-Term Bond | -2.6 | -2.7 | 47.3 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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