Weekly Market Recap
Week ended November 29
Market-moving news
Rising market
Each of the major U.S. stock indexes added more than 1% in a holiday-shortened trading week, extending the previous week’s positive momentum. The S&P 500 and the Dow pushed their record levels higher, while the NASDAQ was fractionally lower than its record set about three weeks earlier.
Yields slide
Yields of U.S. government bonds fell sharply on Monday after President-Elect Donald Trump announced his selection of Scott Bessent to serve as the next Treasury secretary. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury closed around 4.17% on Friday, down from 4.42% at the end of the previous week and a recent intraday high of 4.50% on November 15. Yields of 2- and 10-year notes also slid.
November rebound
U.S. stock indexes surged in November, recording the sixth positive result out of the past seven months and recovering from a slightly negative October. The Dow added about 7.5%, the NASDAQ gained about 6.2%, and the S&P 500 rose 5.7%.
Tariff threats
A threat on Monday from President-Elect Donald Trump to impose tariffs on goods imported from China, Canada, and Mexico fueled warnings from those countries about potential retaliatory trade moves. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso fell sharply against the U.S. dollar, and stocks of selected automakers dropped.
Sideways inflation
Recent progress in bringing inflation down further has stalled, based on Wednesday’s reading from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose at an annual rate of 2.3% in October, up from 2.1% the previous month. Excluding energy and food prices, the core PCE Index rose 2.8% in October, up from 2.7% in September.
Fed outlook
Although inflation remains above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term target, Fed officials recently expressed confidence that price pressures have been easing and that the labor market remains strong. The statements were included in minutes released on Wednesday from the Fed’s November 6–7 policy meeting. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for December 17–18.
Earnings outlook
Looking ahead to the next quarterly earnings season, analysts are expecting the strongest quarterly growth rate in three years. Fourth-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to rise around 12.0%, according to the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed recently by FactSet. That’s roughly double the 5.8% third-quarter growth rate in the earnings season that just wrapped up.
Jobs ahead
A monthly labor market report due out on Friday will show whether a recent slowdown in U.S. jobs growth extended into November. In October, the economy generated 12,000 new jobs—far below the previous month’s strong gain and the smallest increase since December 2020. In addition, initial jobs gain figures for August and September were revised downward. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.
The week ahead: December 2-6
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 11/29/24 (%)
1 week
| 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | Large | |
| 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | Medium | |
| 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 22.8 | 28.1 | 32.2 | Large | |
| 22.0 | 24.1 | 30.2 | Medium | |
| 17.9 | 21.6 | 25.4 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 11/29/24 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 44,910.7 | 1.4 | 21.2 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 19,218.2 | 1.1 | 28.9 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,032.4 | 1.1 | 28.1 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,315.8 | 1.8 | 6.8 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 13.5 | -11.2 | 8.0 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 1.8 | 6.8 |
| Europe | 1.8 | 5.0 |
| France | 1.2 | -4.8 |
| Germany | 2.6 | 12.2 |
| Italy | 0.9 | 12.4 |
| Japan | 2.6 | 9.0 |
| Spain | 1.1 | 12.8 |
| Switzerland | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| U.K. | 1.8 | 10.6 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.8 | 8.1 |
| Brazil | -5.9 | -23.2 |
| China | 0.7 | 16.5 |
| India | 1.5 | 15.7 |
| Indonesia | -1.4 | -8.9 |
| Korea | -2.2 | -17.1 |
| Mexico | 0.1 | -24.7 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -3.1 | 29.4 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.1 | 28.1 |
| Communication services | 1.9 | 35.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | 2.4 | 27.1 |
| Consumer staples | 1.6 | 20.9 |
| Energy | -2.0 | 16.8 |
| Financials | 1.1 | 38.1 |
| Healthcare | 2.2 | 9.4 |
| Industrials | 0.9 | 27.6 |
| Information tech | 0.2 | 35.0 |
| Materials | 0.8 | 12.0 |
| Real estate | 1.9 | 14.9 |
| Utilities | 1.8 | 34.1 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 11/29/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.5 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.8 | Medium | |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 4.3 | 3.0 | -1.1 | High | Credit quality |
| 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 | Medium | |
| 9.1 | 8.6 | 7.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 11/29/24 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.15 | 4.25 | -10 |
| 10 Yr | 4.17 | 3.88 | 29 |
| 30 Yr | 4.36 | 4.03 | 33 |
| 2-10 spread | 2 | -37 | 39 |
| 10-30 spread | 19 | 16 | 3 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| Bank loans | 0.1 | 7.8 |
| Convertible | 0.9 | 15.1 |
| Corporate | 1.5 | 4.8 |
| High yield | 0.4 | 8.6 |
| MBS | 1.3 | 2.9 |
| Municipal | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Preferreds | 0.7 | 6.0 |
| TIPS | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| Treasury | 1.4 | 2.2 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 0.8 | -0.9 |
| EMD USD | 1.0 | 8.0 |
| Global Agg | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| Multiverse | 1.7 | 0.8 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -0.8 | 4.3 |
| Oil (WTI) | -4.5 | 7.3 |
| Gold | -2.0 | 28.0 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| AUD | 0.3 | -4.5 |
| CAD | -0.2 | -5.8 |
| CHF | 1.4 | -4.5 |
| EUR | 1.5 | -4.4 |
| GBP | 1.5 | -0.3 |
| JPY | 3.1 | -6.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 0.9 | 2.3 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.6 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 2.04 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.3 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 2.09 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.05 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.25 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 10/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -3.1 | 116.3 | 15,432.4 |
| Sector Equity | 0.2 | -20.3 | 1,405.7 |
| Allocation | -5.3 | -86.9 | 1,409.5 |
| International Equity | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4,211.7 |
| Alternative | 7.5 | 33.1 | 242.1 |
| Commodities | 4.0 | 2.6 | 195.4 |
| Taxable Bond | 59.9 | 469.6 | 5,680.2 |
| Municipal Bond | 8.5 | 42.3 | 915.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 78.7 | 561.6 | 29,791.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 16.9 | 132.3 | 1,419.5 |
| Large Blend | 15.7 | 221.1 | 8,018.8 |
| China Region | 9.5 | 7.4 | 38.9 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 8.3 | 65.3 | 820.9 |
| Inflation-Protected Bond | 7.5 | -1.7 | 130.8 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 10/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -10.2 | -42.5 | 3,007.9 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -4.8 | -26.2 | 515.1 |
| Diversified Emerging Mkts | -3.5 | -0.2 | 681.3 |
| Large Value | -3.5 | -31.5 | 1,866.8 |
| Moderate Allocation | -2.7 | -31.7 | 783.9 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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