Weekly Market Recap
Week ended August 14
Market-moving news
Flat market
U.S. indexes were little changed overall as stocks took a breather following a rally that lifted the S&P 500 and the Dow to record highs the previous week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ ended the latest week fractionally higher while the Dow was fractionally lower.
Elevated yields
Concerns about long-term inflationary pressures boosted the yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury back to a level it had reached two weeks earlier, which was the highest since 2007. On Friday afternoon, the 30-year yield was around 5.26%, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated at 4.69%. In contrast, the 2-year Treasury yield was slightly lower for the week at 4.17%.
Moderating inflation
Two reports reflected elevated but modestly easing inflationary pressures at the consumer and wholesale levels. The Consumer Price Index held steady at a 3.4% annual rate in July, slightly below June’s 3.5% figure. A subsequent report on producer prices showed inflation was little changed in July relative to the previous month.
Robust revenue
The nearly completed earnings season has been strong on a revenue basis, not just in terms of profits. Companies in the S&P 500 were on pace to record second-quarter revenue growth of 15%, the highest rate since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to a report from FactSet released August 10. As for profits, companies were on track for an earnings growth rate of more than 50%, the strongest since 2021’s second quarter.
Oil rebound
Oil prices rose for the week as developments in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive energy markets. On Friday afternoon, U.S. crude was trading above $82 per barrel, up from $78 a week earlier. Even with the latest rise, oil prices remained well below a recent peak reached on July 23, when crude briefly traded above $92.
Consumer setbacks
U.S. retailers recorded a monthly sales decline for the first time in nine months, with sales down 0.6% in July after a 0.2% gain in June. A separate report on Friday showed a weakening in U.S. consumer sentiment but stable inflation expectations.
Small-cap record
A U.S. small-cap index set a record high and modestly outperformed its large-cap peers for the week. The Russell 2000 Index on Wednesday eclipsed the high that it had set a week earlier; by Friday’s close, it was up more than 1% for the week.
Rate outlook
Bond market trading continued to reflect declining expectations for a U.S. interest rate increase at the mid-September U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. Friday’s trading in rate futures markets implied a roughly 67% probability that the Fed would keep its benchmark rate unchanged, versus a 33% probability that the Fed would raise it by a quarter-point, according to CME FedWatch. Just two weeks earlier, prospects for a September rate increase were at 67%.
The week ahead: August 17-21
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 8/14/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | Large | |
| 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | Medium | |
| 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 24.0 | 14.5 | 6.2 | Large | |
| 23.9 | 20.0 | 7.9 | Medium | |
| 26.5 | 24.5 | 22.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 8/14/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,732.4 | -0.5 | 12.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 26,729.2 | 0.2 | 15.4 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,785.8 | 0.4 | 14.5 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,262.6 | 0.6 | 15.2 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 14.3 | -4.0 | -4.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.6 | 15.2 |
| Europe | 0.1 | 12.6 |
| France | -0.7 | 7.8 |
| Germany | 0.7 | 6.4 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 19.2 |
| Japan | 2.6 | 23.3 |
| Spain | 0.3 | 18.7 |
| Switzerland | -1.4 | 9.3 |
| U.K. | -0.7 | 11.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 2.7 | 23.0 |
| Brazil | -3.5 | 8.7 |
| China | -3.1 | -9.1 |
| India | -0.7 | -7.9 |
| Indonesia | -1.1 | -33.5 |
| Korea | 13.3 | 90.8 |
| Mexico | -3.0 | 11.1 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 4.4 | 62.3 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 0.4 | 14.5 |
| Communication services | -1.0 | 1.7 |
| Consumer discretionary | -1.9 | 0.9 |
| Consumer staples | 1.0 | 11.5 |
| Energy | 7.3 | 39.9 |
| Financials | 0.9 | 7.2 |
| Healthcare | 1.0 | 9.1 |
| Industrials | 0.7 | 20.9 |
| Information tech | 0.2 | 24.3 |
| Materials | -0.8 | 15.4 |
| Real estate | 0.6 | 17.9 |
| Utilities | 1.6 | 5.2 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 8/14/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.7 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.8 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.8 | 0.3 | -3.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 1.2 | 0.4 | -2.0 | Medium | |
| 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 8/14/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.17 | 3.48 | 69 |
| 10 Yr | 4.69 | 4.16 | 53 |
| 30 Yr | 5.26 | 4.84 | 42 |
| 2-10 spread | 52 | 68 | -16 |
| 10-30 spread | 57 | 68 | -11 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Bank loans | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| Convertible | 2.7 | 20.8 |
| Corporate | -0.3 | -0.6 |
| High yield | 0.1 | 2.5 |
| MBS | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Preferreds | -0.2 | -2.4 |
| TIPS | -0.1 | 0.6 |
| Treasury | -0.1 | -0.5 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.2 | 4.4 |
| EMD USD | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| Global Agg | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Multiverse | -0.1 | 0.0 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 2.8 | 26.3 |
| Oil (WTI) | 5.7 | 74.2 |
| Gold | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.4 | 6.4 |
| CAD | 0.5 | -1.2 |
| CHF | -0.4 | -2.4 |
| EUR | 0.2 | -1.4 |
| GBP | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| JPY | -0.7 | -1.4 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.0 | 2.9 | 6.3 | _ |
| China | 4.3 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 1.68 |
| Germany | 0.9 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 3.20 |
| Japan | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.88 |
| U.K. | 1.2 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 5.04 |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 7/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 25.0 | 45.2 | 19,843.1 |
| Taxable Bond | 58.0 | 780.6 | 6,954.9 |
| International Equity | 10.7 | 122.2 | 6,001.0 |
| Sector Equity | 24.6 | 147.4 | 2,044.9 |
| Allocation | -5.6 | -58.8 | 1,624.4 |
| Municipal Bond | 7.9 | 106.7 | 1,072.5 |
| Nontraditional Equity | 8.4 | 56.5 | 372.7 |
| Commodities | 1.9 | 26.0 | 344.7 |
| Miscellaneous | 6.7 | -14.4 | 273.9 |
| Alternative | 3.3 | 31.4 | 158.9 |
| N/A | -0.7 | -34.3 | 54.2 |
| Total all long-term funds | 108.0 | 1,208.4 | 38,745.2 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 37.8 | 295.1 | 10,632.1 |
| Technology | 19.1 | 92.5 | 822.0 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.9 | 115.1 | 560.4 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 10.1 | 168.2 | 1,689.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 7.9 | 111.8 | 2,554.1 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 7/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -19.6 | -108.2 | 3,717.0 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -19.3 | -54.5 | 512.1 |
| Large Value | -6.2 | -289.4 | 2,569.2 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -5.0 | -48.1 | 341.4 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.0 | -44.9 | 866.6 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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