Weekly Market Recap
Week ended April 12
Market-moving news
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Sluggish April
For the second week in a row, the S&P 500 and the Dow retreated from the record highs they set at the end of March. The NASDAQ’s fractional weekly decline was smaller than those of its peers, owing in part to relatively strong performance from a handful of technology stocks.
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Stubborn inflation
The latest inflation report cast further doubt about the timeline for potential interest-rate cuts, as the Consumer Price Index rose to an annual rate of 3.5% in March, up from 3.2% the previous month. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation rose 3.8%. U.S. government bond yields rose sharply following Wednesday’s report.
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Higher for longer?
Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation data reinforced recent market expectations that initial interest-rate cuts are no longer imminent—a view that was backed up later in the day by the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting. Fed officials agreed that they were prepared to keep rates at current high levels for longer than they had previously anticipated.
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Bank earnings setback
Results from three major U.S. banks that reported first-quarter numbers on Friday were mixed, with two institutions reporting year-over-year earnings declines. Entering earnings season, analysts were forecasting that overall earnings for banks in the S&P 500 dropped 18% relative to the previous year’s first quarter, according to FactSet.
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Yields jump again
In the wake of Wednesday’s inflation report, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to the highest level in five months, as it climbed as high as 4.59% at one point. As recently as February 1, the 10-year yield had closed as low as 3.86%.
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Gold’s allure
Gold prices rose for the third week in a row, adding to the record highs reached in previous weeks. On Friday, gold futures climed as high as $2,448 per ounce in the morning before retreating to around $2,360 in the afternoon—up about 1% for the week and more than 9% since March 22.
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China’s trade slump
China reported a bigger-than-expected monthly drop in exports, and imports unexpectedly declined as well. The 7.5% decline in the value of exports from the world’s second-largest economy was the biggest such drop since August 2023. The data was released after Chinese financial markets closed on Friday.
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Retail sales ahead
Monday’s scheduled release of U.S. retail sales data could indicate whether a recent positive turnaround in momentum extended into March. In February, sales rebounded to a 0.6% gain after posting an unexpected 1.1% decline in January .
The week ahead: April 15-19
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 4/12/24 (%)
1 week
| -2.8 | -1.6 | -0.6 | Large | |
| -2.9 | -2.6 | -2.1 | Medium | |
| -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.9 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 4.5 | 7.5 | 10.0 | Large | |
| 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.4 | Medium | |
| -2.8 | -0.8 | 1.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 4/12/24 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 37,983.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 16,175.1 | -0.4 | 8.0 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,123.4 | -1.5 | 7.9 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,289.8 | -1.1 | 3.4 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 17.3 | 8.1 | 38.4 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -1.1 | 3.4 |
| Europe | -1.8 | 2.5 |
| France | -2.4 | 1.8 |
| Germany | -3.0 | 2.5 |
| Italy | -2.6 | 8.8 |
| Japan | 1.1 | 9.4 |
| Spain | -3.5 | 3.3 |
| Switzerland | -1.6 | -4.5 |
| U.K. | -0.1 | 2.3 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.3 | 2.4 |
| Brazil | -2.2 | -10.9 |
| China | -0.2 | -1.7 |
| India | 0.1 | 7.6 |
| Indonesia | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Korea | -2.7 | -2.7 |
| Mexico | -3.7 | -1.1 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 1.6 | 13.8 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -1.5 | 7.9 |
| Communication services | -0.4 | 18.3 |
| Consumer discretionary | -0.7 | 2.3 |
| Consumer staples | -1.2 | 3.4 |
| Energy | -1.9 | 15.8 |
| Financials | -3.6 | 7.0 |
| Healthcare | -3.1 | 2.3 |
| Industrials | -2.2 | 8.3 |
| Information tech | -0.2 | 11.3 |
| Materials | -3.1 | 5.4 |
| Real estate | -2.8 | -6.8 |
| Utilities | -1.5 | 2.2 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 4/12/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.5 | -1.2 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.9 | Medium | |
| -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.8 | -1.4 | -7.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -1.7 | -4.3 | Medium | |
| 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 4/12/24 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.89 | 4.25 | -37 |
| 10 Yr | 4.52 | 3.88 | 64 |
| 30 Yr | 4.63 | 4.03 | 60 |
| 2-10 spread | -37 | -37 | 0 |
| 10-30 spread | 11 | 16 | -5 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.7 | -2.5 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Convertible | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| Corporate | -0.8 | -2.3 |
| High yield | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| MBS | -0.9 | -3.0 |
| Municipal | -0.1 | -1.1 |
| Preferreds | -2.9 | 0.1 |
| TIPS | -0.4 | -1.3 |
| Treasury | -0.6 | -2.6 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -1.8 | -3.6 |
| EMD USD | -0.9 | 0.7 |
| Global Agg | -1.0 | -3.7 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -1.2 | -4.5 |
| Multiverse | -1.0 | -3.6 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 0.1 | 6.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | -1.0 | 21.9 |
| Gold | -0.1 | 11.3 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -0.3 | -0.9 |
| AUD | -1.5 | -5.2 |
| CAD | -1.1 | -4.1 |
| CHF | -1.0 | -7.6 |
| EUR | -1.7 | -3.8 |
| GBP | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| JPY | -0.9 | -7.8 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
| Eurozone | 0.0 | 2.4 | 6.5 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.2 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 2.28 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 2.36 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.87 | A+ |
| U.K. | -0.2 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.17 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| U.S. Equity | 31.4 | 40.3 | 14,400.4 |
| Sector Equity | 3.9 | -42.0 | 1,337.9 |
| Allocation | -6.4 | -84.4 | 1,372.0 |
| International Equity | -1.2 | 1.2 | 4,086.3 |
| Alternative | 5.1 | 12.2 | 241.3 |
| Commodities | 0.7 | -16.5 | 160.5 |
| Taxable Bond | 45.0 | 298.3 | 5,283.6 |
| Municipal Bond | 3.7 | 0.2 | 874.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | 85.7 | 192.0 | 27,983.2 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Blend | 31.5 | 185.8 | 7,355.2 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 17.3 | 139.4 | 1,324.6 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 7.3 | 59.3 | 776.4 |
| Intermediate Government | 5.8 | 32.1 | 257.5 |
| Multisector Bond | 5.5 | 34.9 | 296.5 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Value | -3.0 | -72.3 | 1,778.0 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -2.2 | -23.7 | 522.1 |
| Foreign Large Value | -2.0 | -6.4 | 269.9 |
| Global Allocation | -2.0 | -17.1 | 264.0 |
| Moderate Allocation | -1.8 | -30.8 | 753.6 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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