Weekly Market Recap
Week ended April 19
Market-moving news
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April slump
The retreat from the record high that the S&P 500 achieved in late March accelerated, as the index finished the week down 3.0% to post its third negative result in a row. The NASDAQ’s weekly decline was steeper at about 5.5%; in contrast, the Dow posted a tiny gain.
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Growth stocks lag
Worries about technology companies and the interest-rate outlook weighed on growth stocks, and a U.S. large-cap growth benchmark trailed its value counterpart by a wide margin. The growth stock index closed down nearly 5% for the week versus a less than 1% decline for the value index.
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Yields rise again
Yields of U.S. government bonds rose for the third week in a row as investors continued to rein in their expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly rose as high as 4.69% on Tuesday—the highest since last November—before retreating somewhat to close at 4.61% on Friday.
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Delaying expectations
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell conceded that it’s “likely to take longer than expected” to gain confidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward track. Powell on Tuesday reinforced recent messaging about a delayed timeline for interest-rate cuts, saying “it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work.”
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Anxiety rises
An index that tracks investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility rose for the third week in a row to the highest level in nearly six months. On Friday afternoon, the Cboe Volatility Index was up 46% from a recent low on March 27.
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Oil volatility
The price of U.S. crude oil briefly spiked around 4% to more than $85 per barrel late Thursday in the wake of the latest hostilities between Israel and Iran. However, prices quickly reversed course as tensions eased somewhat, and Friday afternoon’s price of around $83 marked a roughly 3% decline for the week.
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China’s comeback
China’s government reported that the nation’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 5.3% in this year’s first quarter, exceeding most economists’ expectations. The result follows implementation of stimulus measures that are designed to bring the world’s second-largest economy closer to prepandemic growth rates.
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U.S. GDP ahead
Thursday’s scheduled release of the U.S. government’s initial estimate of first-quarter GDP is expected to show that the economy remained on a solid growth track but slowed relative to last year’s fourth quarter, when GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate. An estimate released on Tuesday by U.S. Federal Reserve economists projected a first-quarter growth rate of 2.9%.
The week ahead: April 22-26
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 4/19/24 (%)
1 week
| -0.7 | -3.0 | -4.9 | Large | |
| -1.8 | -2.4 | -3.7 | Medium | |
| -1.5 | -2.8 | -4.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 | Large | |
| 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | Medium | |
| -4.3 | -3.5 | -2.7 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 4/19/24 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 37,986.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 15,282.0 | -5.5 | 2.0 |
| S&P 500 Index | 4,967.2 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,236.3 | -2.3 | 1.0 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 18.7 | 8.1 | 49.6 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -2.3 | 1.0 |
| Europe | -0.7 | 1.7 |
| France | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Germany | -0.8 | 1.6 |
| Italy | 1.2 | 10.1 |
| Japan | -6.0 | 2.8 |
| Spain | 0.8 | 4.1 |
| Switzerland | -0.2 | -4.7 |
| U.K. | -1.3 | 1.0 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -3.6 | -1.3 |
| Brazil | -1.7 | -12.4 |
| China | -1.9 | -3.5 |
| India | -1.9 | 5.6 |
| Indonesia | -6.9 | -7.1 |
| Korea | -4.7 | -7.3 |
| Mexico | -4.2 | -5.2 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -7.7 | 5.0 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| Communication services | -3.2 | 14.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | -4.5 | -2.3 |
| Consumer staples | 1.6 | 5.0 |
| Energy | -1.2 | 14.5 |
| Financials | 0.8 | 7.8 |
| Healthcare | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| Industrials | -2.0 | 6.1 |
| Information tech | -7.3 | 3.3 |
| Materials | -1.1 | 4.3 |
| Real estate | -3.5 | -10.0 |
| Utilities | 1.9 | 4.2 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 4/19/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.2 | -1.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.5 | -1.4 | Medium | |
| -0.3 | -0.6 | -2.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 0.8 | -1.6 | -8.4 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -2.2 | -5.6 | Medium | |
| 1.2 | -0.2 | -1.5 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 4/19/24 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.98 | 4.25 | 73 |
| 10 Yr | 4.61 | 3.88 | 73 |
| 30 Yr | 4.71 | 4.03 | 68 |
| 2-10 spread | -36 | -37 | 1 |
| 10-30 spread | 9 | 16 | -7 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.6 | -3.1 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Convertible | -2.1 | -2.2 |
| Corporate | -0.7 | -3.0 |
| High yield | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| MBS | -0.8 | -3.8 |
| Municipal | -0.3 | -1.4 |
| Preferreds | -1.4 | -1.3 |
| TIPS | -0.3 | -1.6 |
| Treasury | -0.4 | -3.0 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.8 | -4.4 |
| EMD USD | -0.8 | 0.0 |
| Global Agg | -0.6 | -4.3 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.5 | -5.0 |
| Multiverse | -0.6 | -4.1 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 0.2 | 6.2 |
| Oil (WTI) | -3.2 | 18.0 |
| Gold | 1.8 | 16.2 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | -0.6 | -2.1 |
| AUD | -0.7 | -5.9 |
| CAD | 0.2 | -4.0 |
| CHF | 0.2 | -7.4 |
| EUR | 0.4 | -3.4 |
| GBP | 0.0 | -2.5 |
| JPY | -1.1 | -8.8 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
| Eurozone | 0.0 | 2.4 | 6.5 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.3 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 2.27 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 2.50 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.84 | A+ |
| U.K. | -0.2 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.23 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| U.S. Equity | 31.4 | 40.3 | 14,400.4 |
| Sector Equity | 3.9 | -42.0 | 1,337.9 |
| Allocation | -6.4 | -84.4 | 1,372.0 |
| International Equity | -1.2 | 1.2 | 4,086.3 |
| Alternative | 5.1 | 12.2 | 241.3 |
| Commodities | 0.7 | -16.5 | 160.5 |
| Taxable Bond | 45.0 | 298.3 | 5,283.6 |
| Municipal Bond | 3.7 | 0.2 | 874.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | 85.7 | 192.0 | 27,983.2 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Blend | 31.5 | 185.8 | 7,355.2 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 17.3 | 139.4 | 1,324.6 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 7.3 | 59.3 | 776.4 |
| Intermediate Government | 5.8 | 32.1 | 257.5 |
| Multisector Bond | 5.5 | 34.9 | 296.5 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Value | -3.0 | -72.3 | 1,778.0 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -2.2 | -23.7 | 522.1 |
| Foreign Large Value | -2.0 | -6.4 | 269.9 |
| Global Allocation | -2.0 | -17.1 | 264.0 |
| Moderate Allocation | -1.8 | -30.8 | 753.6 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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