Weekly Market Recap
Week ended April 25
Market-moving news
Bouncing back
The major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Monday but posted big gains over the next four days to rebound from the previous week’s negative results. The NASDAQ surged 6.7% for the week while the S&P 500 finished up 4.6% and the Dow rose 2.5%.
Tech-driven rally
The NASDAQ’s weekly outperformance relative to other major U.S. indexes stemmed from strong quarterly results from major technology companies and the tech sector’s overall strength during the week. Tech stocks in the S&P 500 surged nearly 8% on average for the week; in contrast, the consumer staples sector was down more than 1%.
Earnings upgrade
The earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies improved as earnings season entered its busiest period. First-quarter net income was expected to rise an average of 10.1% over last year’s first quarter, based on reports already released as of Friday and analyst forecasts for companies that haven’t yet reported, according to FactSet. A week earlier, the projected earnings growth rate was 7.0%.
Bond price rally
Prices of U.S. government bonds climbed, sending yields lower, amid an easing of recent volatility across the fixed-income market. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed around 4.26% on Friday, down from a recent intraday high of 4.59% on April 11. Yields for longer-dated Treasuries posted similar declines, with the 30-year bond finishing around 4.72%.
Growth downgrade
The International Monetary Fund scaled back its forecasts for global economic growth, citing risks related to higher tariffs. The organization is now projecting a 2.8% annual GDP growth rate in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. Three months ago―prior to the recent escalation in tariffs―the fund had forecast 3.3% growth rates in both 2025 and 2026.
Consumer anxiety
A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment extended its steep year-to-date decline as it fell for the fourth month in a row. The University of Michigan on Friday said that its final reading for April was 52.2, down from 57.0 in March, as survey participants cited concerns about higher tariffs and inflationary pressures. At year-end 2024, the index was at 74.0.
Gold rally pauses
Gold’s year-to-date rally was interrupted by a slightly negative weekly result that nevertheless saw the precious metal eclipse the $3,400-per-ounce level for the first time. Gold crossed that threshold on Monday but pulled back later in the week; on Friday afternoon, it was trading around $3,310―down fractionally for the week but up 24% year to date.
Busy week ahead
In addition to more quarterly earnings reports, the new week will bring a monthly jobs report, an initial estimate of first-quarter GDP growth, an inflation update, and other closely watched economic readings. The employment report will show how April’s jobs growth compared with March’s bigger-than-expected gain of 228,000 jobs.
The week ahead: April 28-May 2
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 4/25/25 (%)
1 week
| 2.3 | 4.6 | 6.8 | Large | |
| 2.9 | 3.7 | 6.0 | Medium | |
| 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| -2.0 | -5.8 | -8.9 | Large | |
| -5.4 | -5.3 | -5.0 | Medium | |
| -11.6 | -11.9 | -12.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 4/25/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 40,113.5 | 2.5 | -5.2 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 17,382.9 | 6.7 | -9.8 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,525.2 | 4.6 | -5.7 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,460.5 | 2.9 | 10.1 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 24.8 | -16.5 | 42.5 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 2.9 | 10.1 |
| Europe | 3.3 | 14.1 |
| France | 4.1 | 13.2 |
| Germany | 5.0 | 23.2 |
| Italy | 4.5 | 22.2 |
| Japan | 1.9 | 3.2 |
| Spain | 4.0 | 32.2 |
| Switzerland | 1.9 | 14.7 |
| U.K. | 2.3 | 11.1 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Brazil | 7.2 | 19.1 |
| China | 3.5 | 9.8 |
| India | 0.8 | -0.5 |
| Indonesia | 3.0 | -10.2 |
| Korea | 1.0 | 8.5 |
| Mexico | 8.3 | 23.5 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 3.1 | -13.5 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 4.6 | -5.7 |
| Communication services | 6.4 | -5.8 |
| Consumer discretionary | 7.5 | -13.5 |
| Consumer staples | -1.3 | 5.1 |
| Energy | 1.1 | -2.6 |
| Financials | 3.0 | -0.2 |
| Healthcare | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Industrials | 3.0 | -1.7 |
| Information tech | 7.9 | -11.8 |
| Materials | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| Real estate | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Utilities | 0.5 | 4.1 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 4/25/25 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | Medium | |
| 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | High | Credit quality |
| 2.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | Medium | |
| 1.8 | 1.0 | -0.7 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 4/25/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.76 | 4.23 | -47 |
| 10 Yr | 4.26 | 4.57 | -31 |
| 30 Yr | 4.72 | 4.79 | -7 |
| 2-10 spread | 50 | 34 | 16 |
| 10-30 spread | 46 | 22 | 24 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Bank loans | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Convertible | 3.0 | -0.9 |
| Corporate | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| High yield | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| MBS | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | -1.6 |
| Preferreds | 1.9 | -1.2 |
| TIPS | 0.8 | 3.6 |
| Treasury | 0.5 | 3.0 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.3 | 8.9 |
| EMD USD | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Global Agg | 0.3 | 5.1 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.1 | 6.7 |
| Multiverse | 0.4 | 5.1 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -0.2 | 5.3 |
| Oil (WTI) | -1.5 | -9.3 |
| Gold | -0.8 | 24.1 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.8 | 5.0 |
| AUD | 0.4 | 3.2 |
| CAD | 0.1 | 3.7 |
| CHF | -1.2 | 9.2 |
| EUR | 0.2 | 9.8 |
| GBP | 0.6 | 6.3 |
| JPY | -1.2 | 9.2 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 2.2 | 6.1 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 1.66 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 2.47 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.34 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.48 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -2.1 | 155.4 | 15,191.8 |
| Sector Equity | -13.0 | -25.1 | 1,359.6 |
| Allocation | -8.4 | -80.7 | 1,392.3 |
| International Equity | -3.1 | -15.5 | 4,244.4 |
| Alternative | 0.5 | 44.3 | 272.6 |
| Commodities | 6.8 | 17.6 | 227.5 |
| Taxable Bond | 20.3 | 469.4 | 5,934.4 |
| Municipal Bond | -0.6 | 45.6 | 928.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 10.3 | 634.6 | 29,865.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.5 | 95.9 | 433.5 |
| Large Blend | 9.4 | 244.9 | 8,059.7 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 8.8 | 47.4 | 852.3 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | 6.9 | 11.4 | 87.9 |
| Commodities Focused | 6.5 | 16.8 | 182.2 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Government | -9.0 | 10.9 | 276.7 |
| Bank Loan | -5.4 | 7.9 | 105.4 |
| Large Growth | -5.4 | -37.0 | 2,834.8 |
| Moderate Allocation | -5.2 | -36.5 | 782.9 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -3.8 | -29.8 | 456.5 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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