Weekly Market Recap
Week ended July 4
Market-moving news
Pushing higher
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ added to the record levels that they set the previous week while the Dow was within 0.4% of its record high at Thursday’s close. Overall, the three indexes were up around 2.0% in a holiday-shortened trading week.
Jobs strength
Stocks posted the week’s biggest daily gains on Thursday after an employment report modestly exceeded expectations. The economy generated 147,000 new jobs in June, above consensus expectations of around 117,000. Initial estimates for the previous two months’ gains were revised upward, in contrast with a recent trend of downward adjustments. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in May.
Q2’s market comeback
U.S. stock indexes finished this year’s second quarter with big gains despite April’s tariff-driven market decline. The S&P 500 climbed 10.6% overall after posting monthly gains of 6.2% in May and 5.0% in June. On a year-to-date basis, the index was up 5.5% as the quarter closed on Monday.
Budget approved
Congress narrowly approved the Trump administration’s budget and domestic policy bill and sent it to the White House for signing into law. The measure cleared the Senate on Tuesday as the vice president broke a 50-50 tie vote. On Thursday, the House of Representatives approved the bill on a 218-214 vote.
Yields rebound
Prices of U.S. government bonds fell, sending yields higher, after Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report weakened the outlook for any cuts to U.S. interest rates in the near term. Yields of short-term debt posted the biggest gains, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising to close around 3.88% on Thursday after finishing at 3.68% on Wednesday. The 10-year yield was 4.35%, up from 4.29% on Wednesday.
U.S. dollar weakness
Although the U.S. dollar strengthened following Thursday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, it nevertheless remained near its lowest level since early 2022 relative to a basket of other major currencies. The dollar ended the second quarter down more than 5%; on a year-to-date basis, it was down 10% as of Thursday.
Small-cap surge
An index that tracks U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed a large-cap benchmark and returned to positive territory on a year-to-date basis. For the week, the Russell 2000 Index climbed 3.6% to a level that was nearly 28% above a recent low recorded on April 8.
Earnings outlook
Growth expectations are modest as major U.S. banks prepare to kick off earnings season in mid-July. As of Thursday, analysts were expecting companies in the S&P 500 to report second-quarter earnings growth averaging around 5.0%, according to FactSet. If that turns out to be the actual growth rate, it would be the smallest increase since the fourth quarter of 2023.
The week ahead: July 7-11
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 7/4/25 (%)
1 week
| 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | Large | |
| 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | Medium | |
| 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.0 | Large | |
| 5.4 | 6.8 | 10.9 | Medium | |
| 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 7/4/25 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 44,828.5 | 2.3 | 6.3 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 20,601.1 | 1.6 | 7.1 |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,279.4 | 1.8 | 7.5 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,654.7 | 0.1 | 19.9 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.4 | 0.6 | -5.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 0.1 | 19.9 |
| Europe | 0.1 | 24.1 |
| France | 0.7 | 22.2 |
| Germany | -0.5 | 34.9 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 36.1 |
| Japan | -0.4 | 10.6 |
| Spain | 1.1 | 44.7 |
| Switzerland | 0.7 | 21.9 |
| U.K. | -0.2 | 19.7 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.4 | 16.6 |
| Brazil | 4.5 | 32.5 |
| China | -1.0 | 17.2 |
| India | -0.3 | 6.8 |
| Indonesia | -1.2 | -4.1 |
| Korea | 0.0 | 38.5 |
| Mexico | 2.2 | 34.1 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 0.8 | 14.1 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.8 | 7.5 |
| Communication services | -0.1 | 10.6 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.8 | -2.2 |
| Consumer staples | 1.4 | 7.4 |
| Energy | 2.1 | 3.6 |
| Financials | 2.5 | 11.0 |
| Healthcare | 1.2 | -0.6 |
| Industrials | 1.8 | 14.1 |
| Information tech | 2.5 | 9.6 |
| Materials | 3.8 | 9.9 |
| Real estate | 1.6 | 3.9 |
| Utilities | 0.6 | 9.6 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 7/4/25 (%)
1 week
| -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.7 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | High | Credit quality |
| 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | Medium | |
| 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 7/4/25 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 3.88 | 4.23 | -35 |
| 10 Yr | 4.35 | 4.57 | -22 |
| 30 Yr | 4.86 | 4.79 | 7 |
| 2-10 spread | 46 | 34 | 12 |
| 10-30 spread | 52 | 22 | 30 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.1 | 3.6 |
| Bank loans | 0.3 | 3.2 |
| Convertible | 1.2 | 7.6 |
| Corporate | 0.3 | 5.1 |
| High yield | 0.4 | 4.7 |
| MBS | -0.1 | 3.8 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| Preferreds | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| TIPS | 0.0 | 4.4 |
| Treasury | -0.3 | 3.2 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.4 | 15.9 |
| EMD USD | 0.7 | 6.1 |
| Global Agg | 0.2 | 7.2 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 0.4 | 9.5 |
| Multiverse | 0.2 | 7.3 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 0.6 | 7.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | 2.5 | -0.4 |
| Gold | 1.8 | 25.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.5 | 9.6 |
| AUD | 0.3 | 5.8 |
| CAD | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| CHF | 0.8 | 14.2 |
| EUR | 0.5 | 13.7 |
| GBP | -0.5 | 8.9 |
| JPY | 0.2 | 8.7 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.5 | 2 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5.0 | 1.64 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 2.57 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.44 | A+ |
| U.K. | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.56 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 5/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -18.0 | 157.7 | 15,985.0 |
| Sector Equity | -0.8 | -34.5 | 1,397.7 |
| Allocation | -4.6 | -76.6 | 1,431.1 |
| International Equity | 5.6 | -19.7 | 4,601.7 |
| Alternative | 6.0 | 45.0 | 248.0 |
| Commodities | -1.2 | 19.4 | 235.2 |
| Taxable Bond | 52.0 | 414.5 | 5,922.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 7.0 | 47.1 | 934.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 42.8 | 592.5 | 31,159.7 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 9.1 | 72.9 | 1,464.6 |
| Long Government | 7.1 | 20.4 | 174.4 |
| High Yield Bond | 6.5 | 23.1 | 372.2 |
| Digital Assets | 5.6 | 37.7 | 148.9 |
| Multisector Bond | 5.6 | 59.7 | 373.8 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/25 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | -6.6 | 249.9 | 8,531.3 |
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -4.7 | 17.9 | 104.5 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -2.8 | -36.2 | 490.8 |
| Moderate Allocation | -2.6 | -36.9 | 769.3 |
| Long-Term Bond | -2.6 | -2.7 | 47.3 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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