December 8, 2023
The 2024 election and your portfolio
Here’s a look at what’s at stake nationally in the November 5 election, analysis of historical stock market trends in election years, and portfolio considerations for long- and short-term investors.
What’s at stake—election 2024
Voters will choose a president and decide the makeup of the entire House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate.
1 Two special elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California to fill the temporary vacancy created by Democrat Diane Feinstein's September 29, 2023, death and one in Nebraska, following Republican Ben Sasse’s January 8, 2023, resignation.
Who's in power now?
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House; Democrats hold a slimmer edge in the Senate and they control the White House.
In the House
Republicans have a 220–213 majority, with 2 vacancies
In the Senate
A 51–49 split, with Democrats narrowly maintaining control, owing to three independent senators who caucus with Democrats, effectively creating a majority
Key 2024 election dates
- January 15–June 8: state presidential primaries and caucuses
- July 15–18: Republican National Convention, Milwaukee
- August 19–22: Democratic National Convention, Chicago
- November 5: Election Day
- January 3, 2025: 119th Congress convenes
- January 20, 2025: 60th presidential inauguration
Elections and market history
Financial markets have generally shown resilience throughout four-year presidential election cycles, with changes in political party control of the White House and Congress appearing to have little discernible difference on long-term stock market performance. While election seasons can stir up strong emotions in investors and drive market volatility, trying to time the markets or make investment decisions based on perceived election trends could prove unwise versus simply investing for the long term.
Views from our network
Past performance does not guarantee future results.