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Here’s a look at what’s at stake nationally in the November 5 election, analysis of historical stock market trends in election years, and portfolio considerations for long- and short-term investors.
Voters will choose a president and decide the makeup of the entire House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate.
1 Two special elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California to fill the temporary vacancy created by Democrat Diane Feinstein's September 29, 2023, death and one in Nebraska, following Republican Ben Sasse’s January 8, 2023, resignation.
Financial markets have generally shown resilience throughout four-year presidential election cycles, with changes in political party control of the White House and Congress appearing to have little discernible difference on long-term stock market performance. While election seasons can stir up strong emotions in investors and drive market volatility, trying to time the markets or make investment decisions based on perceived election trends could prove unwise versus simply investing for the long term.
Growth of a hypothetical $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 Index, 1/31/28–12/31/23
S&P 500 Index performance, 1928–2023
Average annual returns of the S&P 500 Index when different political parties were in power, 1928–2023 (%)
Cumulative average returns of the S&P 500 Index during 18-month periods before and after presidential and midterm elections versus nonelection periods, 1/31/28–12/31/23 (%)
Annual returns of a 60/40 portfolio, 1954–2023 (%)
Cboe Volatility Index 30-day moving average in the 100 days before and after U.S. presidential elections, 1992–2020
Average net fund flows in 4-year presidential election cycles, 1988–2023 (US$B)
Comparing outcomes from 3 investment strategies in the 24 4-year election cycles from 1928 through 2023, as measured by the growth of a hypothetical $10,000 investment
August 23, 2024
December 8, 2023
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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