Weekly Market Recap
Week ended October 9
Market-moving news
Record highs
A strong start to the week lifted the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ to record highs on Tuesday. Neither index was able to push its record higher as the week progressed, but both finished around 1% higher overall, as did the Dow.
Yields slip
In the wake of recent bond market volatility, yields of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries were slightly lower overall for the week but remained near their highest levels in more than two decades. At Friday's close, the 10-year yield was 5.24%; the 30-year was 5.60%. The 2-year Treasury fell to 4.79%, down from 4.84% the previous week.
Elevated earnings
Wall Street analysts maintained high expectations as major U.S. banks prepared to open quarterly earnings season. As of Friday, analysts surveyed by FactSet were forecasting an average third-quarter earnings growth rate of 29.6% for companies in the S&P 500. Such an outcome would mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%.
Oil stabilizes
Oil traded in a relatively narrow range for the second week in a row, in a marked shift from the price volatility seen since Middle East tensions escalated in March and April. On Friday afternoon, U.S. crude was trading around $91.50 per barrel, up fractionally from its price a week earlier. As recently as mid-September, oil was trading as high as $105; in early April, it traded as high as $115.
Fed’s rate outlook
Wednesday’s release of minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers anticipate possibly raising interest rates again before year end. However, it was unclear how soon such a raise might come. At its meeting in mid-September, the Fed raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023. Its next policy meeting ends on October 28.
Sentiment sours
A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in five months amid persistent worries about inflation. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that its Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a preliminary October reading of 46.3, down from a final September reading of 48.1 and 51.7 in August. Despite the decline, sentiment remains above the record low of 44.8 set in May 2026.
Small caps lag again
A U.S. small-cap stock benchmark underperformed for the week, extending a recent run of lagging results for the Russell 2000 Index amid concerns about elevated interest rates. At Friday’s close, the Russell 2000 was down a cumulative 5.7% over the past five weeks, versus a 1.0% gain over that period for a U.S. large-cap index.
CPI report ahead
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Wednesday will provide a major data point for the U.S. Federal Reserve ahead of its policy meeting late this month. The most recent CPI report released in September showed inflation at a 3.4% annual rate in August, unchanged from the previous month and still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target.
The week ahead: October 12-16
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 10/9/26 (%)
1 week
| 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | Large | |
| 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | Medium | |
| -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.1 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 22.0 | 14.8 | 8.6 | Large | |
| 18.3 | 15.1 | 4.9 | Medium | |
| 17.8 | 14.1 | 10.8 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 10/9/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,655.0 | 1.0 | 8.8 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 27,366.2 | 0.6 | 18.3 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,811.5 | 1.2 | 15.1 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,078.7 | -0.5 | 9.2 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 14.8 | -3.3 | -1.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -0.5 | 9.2 |
| Europe | -0.6 | 4.7 |
| France | -1.9 | -5.5 |
| Germany | -1.3 | -1.6 |
| Italy | -2.0 | 6.2 |
| Japan | -0.3 | 22.1 |
| Spain | -0.8 | 9.1 |
| Switzerland | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| U.K. | 0.8 | 7.4 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 0.0 | 24.1 |
| Brazil | 14.6 | 39.3 |
| China | 1.2 | -12.3 |
| India | -0.5 | -16.3 |
| Indonesia | 0.5 | -39.2 |
| Korea | -5.3 | 93.1 |
| Mexico | 1.2 | 6.5 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 1.5 | 74.6 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| -0.8 | 12.8 | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.2 | 15.1 |
| Communication services | 0.9 | 5.0 |
| Consumer discretionary | 3.1 | -1.7 |
| Consumer staples | 4.0 | 10.2 |
| Energy | 3.6 | 48.5 |
| Financials | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Healthcare | 2.8 | 11.8 |
| Industrials | -0.4 | 10.0 |
| Information tech | -0.3 | 30.4 |
| Materials | 1.4 | 11.0 |
| Real estate | 1.8 | 10.0 |
| Utilities | 4.0 | -0.9 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 10/9/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | Medium | |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.9 | -1.1 | -7.2 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.8 | -1.6 | -5.2 | Medium | |
| 1.5 | 0.3 | -4.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 10/9/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.79 | 3.48 | 131 |
| 10 Yr | 5.24 | 4.16 | 108 |
| 30 Yr | 5.60 | 4.84 | 76 |
| 2-10 spread | 45 | 68 | -23 |
| 10-30 spread | 36 | 68 | -32 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 0.4 | -2.5 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| Convertible | -1.2 | 14.3 |
| Corporate | 0.5 | -3.5 |
| High yield | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| MBS | 0.5 | -2.7 |
| Municipal | -0.3 | -3.5 |
| Preferreds | -1.0 | -7.2 |
| TIPS | 0.3 | -1.8 |
| Treasury | 0.3 | -2.4 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| EMD USD | 0.9 | -0.3 |
| Global Agg | 0.0 | -2.7 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.2 | -2.8 |
| Multiverse | 0.1 | -2.5 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 1.8 | 35.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | 0.8 | 100.6 |
| Gold | 1.4 | -3.7 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.1 | 4.6 |
| CAD | -0.3 | -4.0 |
| CHF | -0.3 | -4.7 |
| EUR | -0.7 | -4.7 |
| GBP | -0.2 | -1.7 |
| JPY | -0.5 | -1.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries (as of 10/9/26)
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | _ |
| China | 4.3 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 1.70 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 3.49 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.02 |
| U.K. | 1.4 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 5.45 |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 9/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -45.2 | 17.0 | 20,037.3 |
| Taxable Bond | 35.5 | 763.3 | 6,923.1 |
| International Equity | 1.3 | 122.9 | 6,025.2 |
| Sector Equity | 1.7 | 127.9 | 2,088.9 |
| Allocation | -2.8 | -59.3 | 1,598.5 |
| Municipal Bond | 3.0 | 102.7 | 1,038.8 |
| Nontraditional Equity | 6.4 | 61.0 | 390.7 |
| Commodities | 3.9 | 24.6 | 373.1 |
| Miscellaneous | 3.7 | -5.4 | 345.6 |
| Alternative | 6.0 | 37.4 | 172.5 |
| N/A | -0.3 | -24.7 | 65.1 |
| Total all long-term funds | 13.2 | 1,167.4 | 39,059.0 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 9/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultrashort Bond | 21.6 | 137.5 | 597.4 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 10.7 | 109.2 | 2,557.2 |
| Muni National Interm | 5.8 | 58.4 | 415.0 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 5.0 | 160.5 | 1,667.4 |
| Long Government | 4.9 | 21.1 | 185.9 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 9/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | -17.5 | 267.2 | 10,805.7 |
| Large Growth | -15.9 | -103.2 | 3,921.7 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -6.2 | -54.6 | 501.2 |
| Corporate Bond | -4.7 | 27.9 | 256.4 |
| Small Growth | -4.7 | -24.8 | 256.1 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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