Weekly Market Recap
Week ended May 3
Market-moving news
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Climbing back
The major U.S. stock indexes rose for the second week in a row, recovering much of the ground lost during three weekly declines in April. The latest week was choppy, as stocks tumbled on Tuesday before rebounding on Thursday and Friday amid positive sentiment over earnings and jobs data.
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Jobs growth moderates
U.S. stock indexes climbed on Friday and bond yields fell after a jobs report eased concerns about labor market-induced inflationary pressures, potentially shifting the outlook for interest-rate cuts. In April, the economy generated 175,000 jobs, down from an upwardly revised 315,000 figure in March. Wages rose at a 3.9% annual rate versus 4.1% in March.
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Earnings pick up
Profits at some of the biggest technology companies continued to improve as earnings season neared an end. FactSet reported on Friday that analysts were expecting S&P 500 companies overall to post a 5.0% first-quarter earnings increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier, based on results released so far and projections for companies that haven’t yet reported. Just a week earlier, the projected growth rate was 3.5%.
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Yields retreat
Yields of U.S. government bonds fell, snapping a string of four consecutive weekly gains that had pushed the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to the highest level since last November. Friday's closing yield was 4.50%, down from 4.67% at the close of the previous week.
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April showers
The S&P 500 fell nearly 4.2% last month, posting its first decline after five monthly gains in a row that had produced a cumulative gain of 25.3%. Utilities stocks rose an average 1.6% in April, standing out as the only sector among 11 to generate a positive result, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The real estate sector’s 8.6% decline was the weakest result.
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Fed holds steady
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in more than two decades as it again held off on any rate cuts. Fed officials acknowledged that they have recently seen “a lack of further progress” in bringing inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% long-term target rate.
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Sagging confidence
A measure that tracks monthly changes in U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply to the lowest level since 2022. Many consumers surveyed for the Conference Board’s latest report cited concerns about inflation and the jobs outlook.
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Eurozone rebound
The eurozone’s economy started 2024 on a moderately positive note as it recorded a 0.3% annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter. Tuesday’s report also revised the prior quarter’s figure to negative 0.1% from an initial 0.0% estimate, meaning the eurozone was technically in a recession in the latter half of last year, as its third-quarter 2023 result was also slightly negative.
The week ahead: May 6-10
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Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 2000 Index tracks the performance of approximately 2,000 publicly traded small-cap companies in the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 5/3/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | Large | |
| 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.2 | Medium | |
| 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 5.3 | 7.6 | 9.5 | Large | |
| 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | Medium | |
| -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 5/3/24 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 38,675.7 | 1.1 | 3.2 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 16,156.3 | 1.4 | 7.9 |
| S&P 500 Index | 5,127.8 | 0.6 | 8.0 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 2,309.5 | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 13.5 | -19.8 | 20.0 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| Europe | 0.5 | 4.5 |
| France | 0.2 | 3.9 |
| Germany | 0.1 | 4.5 |
| Italy | -1.2 | 11.3 |
| Japan | 4.7 | 8.3 |
| Spain | -2.1 | 6.3 |
| Switzerland | 0.7 | -3.7 |
| U.K. | 1.6 | 6.2 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| Brazil | 2.5 | -7.5 |
| China | 4.2 | 8.8 |
| India | 0.7 | 8.4 |
| Indonesia | 1.3 | -7.2 |
| Korea | 1.4 | -3.3 |
| Mexico | -0.2 | -2.1 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 1.4 | 10.1 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 0.6 | 8.0 |
| Communication services | -0.5 | 16.9 |
| Consumer discretionary | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Consumer staples | 0.4 | 7.1 |
| Energy | -3.3 | 11.5 |
| Financials | -0.6 | 8.3 |
| Healthcare | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Industrials | 0.1 | 8.2 |
| Information tech | 1.5 | 10.2 |
| Materials | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Real estate | 1.8 | -7.3 |
| Utilities | 3.4 | 9.0 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 5/3/24 (%)
1 week
| 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | Medium | |
| 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.1 | -0.9 | -7.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.4 | -1.2 | -3.9 | Medium | |
| 2.2 | 1.4 | -0.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 5/3/24 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.81 | 4.25 | 56 |
| 10 Yr | 4.50 | 3.88 | 62 |
| 30 Yr | 4.66 | 4.03 | 63 |
| 2-10 spread | -31 | -37 | 6 |
| 10-30 spread | 16 | 16 | 0 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | 1.2 | -2.1 |
| Bank loans | 0.3 | 2.5 |
| Convertible | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Corporate | 1.4 | -1.5 |
| High yield | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| MBS | 1.3 | -2.5 |
| Municipal | 0.7 | -1.0 |
| Preferreds | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| TIPS | 0.8 | -0.9 |
| Treasury | 1.0 | -2.2 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.7 | -2.3 |
| EMD USD | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Global Agg | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 1.4 | -4.1 |
| Multiverse | 1.3 | -3.1 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -1.4 | 4.6 |
| Oil (WTI) | -6.4 | 12.7 |
| Gold | -1.5 | 11.3 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | 0.4 | -1.2 |
| AUD | 1.3 | -3.1 |
| CAD | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| CHF | 1.1 | -7.0 |
| EUR | 0.8 | -2.5 |
| GBP | 0.7 | -1.6 |
| JPY | 2.9 | -7.8 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
| Eurozone | 0.3 | 2.4 | 6.5 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.3 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 2.31 | A+ |
| Germany | -0.2 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 2.49 | AAA |
| Japan | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.91 | A+ |
| U.K. | -0.2 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.23 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| U.S. Equity | 31.4 | 40.3 | 14,400.4 |
| Sector Equity | 3.9 | -42.0 | 1,337.9 |
| Allocation | -6.4 | -84.4 | 1,372.0 |
| International Equity | -1.2 | 1.2 | 4,086.3 |
| Alternative | 5.1 | 12.2 | 241.3 |
| Commodities | 0.7 | -16.5 | 160.5 |
| Taxable Bond | 45.0 | 298.3 | 5,283.6 |
| Municipal Bond | 3.7 | 0.2 | 874.9 |
| Total all long-term funds | 85.7 | 192.0 | 27,983.2 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Blend | 31.5 | 185.8 | 7,355.2 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 17.3 | 139.4 | 1,324.6 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 7.3 | 59.3 | 776.4 |
| Intermediate Government | 5.8 | 32.1 | 257.5 |
| Multisector Bond | 5.5 | 34.9 | 296.5 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 3/31/24 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
| Large Value | -3.0 | -72.3 | 1,778.0 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -2.2 | -23.7 | 522.1 |
| Foreign Large Value | -2.0 | -6.4 | 269.9 |
| Global Allocation | -2.0 | -17.1 | 264.0 |
| Moderate Allocation | -1.8 | -30.8 | 753.6 |
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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