Weekly Market Recap
Week ended September 11
Market-moving news
Modest retreat
Thursday marked the fourth consecutive daily decline for the major U.S. indexes, but stocks reversed course on Friday, helping mitigate overall losses in a holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished down fractionally for the week, while the Dow ended 1.6% lower.
Bond sell-off
The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed on Friday to close at 4.97%, the highest since October 2023, when the 10-year briefly eclipsed the 5.00% threshold for the first time since 2007. Moreover, the 2-year Treasury yield rose on Friday to 4.63%, the highest in more than two years, while the 30-year was at 5.35%, a nearly two-decade high.
Oil resurgence
Oil prices slipped on Friday but were still more than 8% higher for the week, with U.S. crude trading above $100 per barrel, the highest in nearly four months. That’s up sharply from the roughly $70 level of early July but well below the year-to-date high of nearly $113 reached in early April.
Stubborn inflation
Ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, two reports reflected persistently elevated inflation at the consumer and wholesale levels. Friday’s Consumer Price Index report showed a 3.4% annual rate in August, unchanged from the previous month and still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target. A separate report on producer prices showed inflation rose in August from July’s elevated level.
Rate hike outlook
Following Friday’s inflation report, bond trading reflected a further rise in expectations for a potential interest rate hike at the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that’s scheduled to conclude on Wednesday, September 16. Trading in rate futures markets on Friday afternoon implied an 88% probability that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, according to CME FedWatch. Just a week earlier, the probability of a September rate increase was 59%.
Sinking sentiment
A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply amid mounting worries about inflation. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that its Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a preliminary September reading of 47.8, down from 51.7 in August and 55.2 in July. Despite the decline, sentiment remains above the record low of 44.8 that was recorded in May 2026.
Home sales slump
Elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on the U.S. residential real estate market, as sales of existing homes fell 2% in August relative to the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors. On a year-to-year basis, sales were down 1.2%, though housing supply has recently increased, with August marking the first month since 2019 that inventory exceeded 1.6 million homes.
Small-cap setback
U.S. small-cap stocks sustained significantly larger declines than their large-cap peers during a week when prospects of higher borrowing costs rose, as reflected by expectations for an increase in interest rates. A small-cap benchmark, the Russell 2000 Index, finished down 2.4% for the week versus a 0.9% decline for its large-cap counterpart.
The week ahead: September 14-18
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 9/11/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.9 | Large | |
| -1.9 | -1.7 | -1.2 | Medium | |
| -2.1 | -2.4 | -2.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 22.5 | 12.6 | 3.7 | Large | |
| 19.3 | 14.8 | 1.1 | Medium | |
| 22.3 | 18.0 | 14.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 9/11/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,573.3 | -1.6 | 10.6 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 26,333.0 | -0.6 | 13.8 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,657.0 | -0.8 | 12.8 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,192.3 | -1.4 | 12.9 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.8 | 5.8 | 5.3 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -1.4 | 12.9 |
| Europe | -1.7 | 9.6 |
| France | -1.2 | 2.4 |
| Germany | -2.0 | 3.6 |
| Italy | 0.8 | 17.1 |
| Japan | 0.1 | 22.5 |
| Spain | -0.6 | 18.0 |
| Switzerland | -4.4 | 4.0 |
| U.K. | -1.5 | 10.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -0.2 | 24.6 |
| Brazil | 1.1 | 22.6 |
| China | -2.9 | -10.9 |
| India | -2.8 | -11.3 |
| Indonesia | -2.9 | -34.1 |
| Korea | 4.1 | 99.1 |
| Mexico | -1.8 | 11.3 |
| Taiwan | -0.5 | 65.3 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | -0.8 | 12.8 |
| Communication services | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | -1.2 | -2.5 |
| Consumer staples | -0.6 | 8.4 |
| Energy | 2.1 | 47.4 |
| Financials | -1.5 | 5.5 |
| Healthcare | -3.5 | 7.8 |
| Industrials | -1.6 | 11.8 |
| Information tech | -0.2 | 23.7 |
| Materials | -2.7 | 12.9 |
| Real estate | -0.9 | 13.5 |
| Utilities | -1.6 | 0.7 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 9/11/26 (%)
1 week
| -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.6 | High | Credit quality |
| -0.4 | -0.9 | -1.2 | Medium | |
| -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.1 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.7 | -0.8 | -4.4 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.7 | -0.9 | -2.8 | Medium | |
| 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 9/11/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.63 | 3.48 | 115 |
| 10 Yr | 4.97 | 4.16 | 81 |
| 30 Yr | 5.35 | 4.84 | 51 |
| 2-10 spread | 35 | 68 | 33 |
| 10-30 spread | 38 | 68 | 30 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -1.0 | -1.4 |
| Bank loans | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| Convertible | -0.6 | 16.2 |
| Corporate | -1.1 | -2.1 |
| High yield | -0.5 | 1.9 |
| MBS | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| Municipal | -1.2 | -1.6 |
| Preferreds | -1.1 | -4.8 |
| TIPS | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| Treasury | -0.9 | -1.5 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.7 | 4.4 |
| EMD USD | -0.9 | 1.9 |
| Global Agg | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| Multiverse | -0.8 | -0.7 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 1.7 | 35.8 |
| Oil (WTI) | 8.4 | 109.2 |
| Gold | -1.4 | 0.4 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | -0.4 | 7.6 |
| CAD | -0.2 | -1.2 |
| CHF | -0.6 | -2.8 |
| EUR | 0.0 | -1.1 |
| GBP | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| JPY | 1.7 | 2.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | _ |
| China | 4.3 | 0.8 | 5.2 | 1.69 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 3.50 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.98 |
| U.K. | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 5.36 |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 8/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -0.6 | 56.9 | 20,328.8 |
| Taxable Bond | 75.6 | 792.7 | 7,048.3 |
| International Equity | 8.3 | 127.8 | 6,170.0 |
| Sector Equity | -9.4 | 136.9 | 2,110.2 |
| Allocation | -5.3 | -60.7 | 1,643.3 |
| Municipal Bond | 8.3 | 107.7 | 1,076.7 |
| Nontraditional Equity | 9.4 | 31.5 | 392.1 |
| Commodities | 5.1 | 57.4 | 385.2 |
| Miscellaneous | 3.9 | -10.3 | 322.5 |
| Alternative | 2.8 | 33.1 | 163.6 |
| N/A | -3.7 | -31.9 | 63.7 |
| Total all long-term funds | 94.5 | 1,241.1 | 39,704.3 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 15.5 | 171.4 | 1,709.1 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 14.0 | 120.3 | 575.9 |
| Large Growth | 10.3 | -94.8 | 3,864.2 |
| Short Government | 9.0 | 20.8 | 118.6 |
| Commodities Focused | 8.5 | 24.5 | 319.3 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 8/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-Cap Growth | -5.0 | -52.0 | 349.5 |
| Technology | -4.8 | 87.2 | 855.7 |
| Mid-Cap Value | -4.5 | -31.2 | 383.7 |
| Financial | -4.1 | -77.9 | 110.5 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.9 | -46.8 | 875.1 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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