Weekly Market Recap
Week ended July 31
Market-moving news
Inching back up
Strong earnings results lifted the three major U.S. stock indexes to gains of 1% to nearly 2%, largely offsetting the previous week’s modest declines. Despite the rebound, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow remained below the record levels they set over the past two months.
Fed dissents
U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Wednesday, and medium- to long-term government bond yields surged in the wake of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh’s news conference. While the Fed kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged, three of the Fed’s voting members dissented, preferring to lift rates.
Historically high yields
Concerns about long-term inflationary pressures boosted the yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury above 5.20% on Wednesday afternoon, near its highest level since 2007. By Friday afternoon, the 30-year yield climbed further to 5.25% and the 10-year yield rose to 4.71%, the highest in more than a year and a half.
Earnings surge
Earnings forecasts were sharply raised as the largest technology companies reported quarterly results and nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 companies had released their second-quarter numbers. As of Friday, analysts projected that earnings for S&P 500 companies rose an average 47.4% in the second quarter, up from a 38.0% forecast at the end of the previous week, according to FactSet. If the 47.4% gain holds up by the time earnings season concludes, it would mark the strongest quarterly growth rate in five years.
GDP setback
U.S. GDP slowed to an annual growth rate of 1.5% in this year’s second quarter as momentum slipped in the wake of the preceding quarter’s 2.1% result. The government’s initial second-quarter estimate came in lower than most economists had forecast. While the consumer spending component of GDP posted a gain, federal government spending and inventories lagged.
PCE inflation
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed price pressures moderating somewhat in June after climbing in the preceding month to the highest level in more than three years. Thursday’s Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index report recorded an annual rate of 3.7% in June after reaching 4.1% in May. Excluding food and energy prices, June’s core PCE inflation was 3.3%.
Summer doldrums
July marked the second slightly negative month in a row for the S&P 500, which slipped 0.1% for the month. The NASDAQ sustained a bigger decline of 3.2%. In contrast, the Dow added 0.3% in July, marking that index’s fourth positive month in a row.
Jobs ahead
A labor market report due out on Friday will show whether June’s jobs growth slowdown extended into July. In June, job growth fell short of economists’ consensus expectations, marking a shift after gains exceeded consensus forecasts in the preceding three months. The economy generated 57,000 new jobs—roughly half the total that had been expected—and initial estimates of gains in April and May were revised downward.
The week ahead: August 3-7
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 7/31/26 (%)
1 week
| 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | Large | |
| 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | Medium | |
| -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 20.7 | 9.9 | 0.3 | Large | |
| 19.3 | 14.6 | 0.3 | Medium | |
| 23.0 | 18.9 | 15.0 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 7/31/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,485.0 | 1.0 | 10.2 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 25,373.9 | 1.6 | 9.5 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,489.7 | 1.1 | 10.1 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,176.1 | 2.0 | 12.0 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 16.0 | -14.0 | 6.7 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | 2.0 | 12.0 |
| Europe | 1.8 | 10.1 |
| France | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| Germany | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| Italy | 2.0 | 15.4 |
| Japan | 2.5 | 17.2 |
| Spain | 2.5 | 15.5 |
| Switzerland | 1.3 | 8.8 |
| U.K. | 2.2 | 11.9 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | 2.4 | 20.3 |
| Brazil | 1.9 | 16.6 |
| China | 3.9 | -7.2 |
| India | 3.9 | -8.1 |
| Indonesia | 0.7 | -34.3 |
| Korea | 2.8 | 81.5 |
| Mexico | 1.5 | 13.3 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | 0.8 | 54.0 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.1 | 10.1 |
| Communication services | 5.4 | 1.4 |
| Consumer discretionary | 8.3 | 0.0 |
| Consumer staples | 1.2 | 10.3 |
| Energy | -0.2 | 34.7 |
| Financials | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| Healthcare | 0.0 | 6.0 |
| Industrials | -1.6 | 16.5 |
| Information tech | -0.1 | 15.7 |
| Materials | -1.7 | 10.1 |
| Real estate | -2.5 | 17.5 |
| Utilities | -4.2 | 5.3 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 7/31/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.1 | 0.1 | -1.0 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.4 | Medium | |
| 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.5 | -0.1 | -3.6 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.9 | -0.1 | -2.4 | Medium | |
| 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 7/31/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.27 | 3.48 | 79 |
| 10 Yr | 4.71 | 4.16 | 55 |
| 30 Yr | 5.25 | 4.84 | 41 |
| 2-10 spread | 44 | 68 | -24 |
| 10-30 spread | 54 | 68 | -14 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.1 | -0.7 |
| Bank loans | 0.1 | 1.1 |
| Convertible | 0.1 | 14.8 |
| Corporate | 0.0 | -1.0 |
| High yield | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| MBS | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Municipal | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Preferreds | 0.2 | -1.4 |
| TIPS | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Treasury | -0.1 | -0.8 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| EMD USD | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Global Agg | 0.6 | -0.7 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | 1.1 | -0.7 |
| Multiverse | 0.6 | -0.6 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | -2.1 | 23.0 |
| Oil (WTI) | -5.1 | 78.3 |
| Gold | -0.5 | -6.9 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.5 | 5.3 |
| CAD | 0.4 | -2.3 |
| CHF | 1.0 | -2.1 |
| EUR | 1.1 | -2.0 |
| GBP | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| JPY | 2.8 | -1.6 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 1.0 | 2.9 | 6.3 | _ | _ |
| China | 4.3 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.71 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.9 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 3.20 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.80 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 5.04 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | 26.8 | 17.1 | 20,022.9 |
| Sector Equity | 16.6 | 130.1 | 2,102.7 |
| Allocation | -6.1 | -56.6 | 1,627.5 |
| International Equity | -1.5 | 132.4 | 6,040.9 |
| Alternative | 4.8 | 29.3 | 154.5 |
| Commodities | -5.6 | 26.2 | 337.2 |
| Taxable Bond | 73.2 | 778.6 | 6,968.7 |
| Municipal Bond | 9.9 | 104.6 | 1,082.1 |
| Total all long-term funds | 124.7 | 1,168.6 | 39,070.4 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Blend | 61.3 | 267.4 | 10,623.5 |
| Technology | 17.8 | 76.5 | 894.7 |
| Intermediate Core Bond | 15.8 | 177.3 | 1,702.5 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 11.8 | 106.1 | 545.1 |
| Foreign Large Blend | 10.9 | 111.3 | 2,538.3 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 6/30/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -21.3 | -99.0 | 3,891.40 |
| Commodities Focused | -5.9 | 22.2 | 277.1 |
| Diversified Emerging Markets | -4.7 | 31.1 | 1,044.30 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -4.7 | -45.1 | 364.6 |
| Moderate Allocation | -4.5 | -43.8 | 876.5 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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